Hawaii Bowl 2014: Key Factors and Prediction for Fresno State vs. Rice
The records for each team in the Hawaii Bowl might cause some to overlook the matchup, but you can be certain both Fresno State and Rice will be fighting hard to earn a win in this one—set to kick off at 8 p.m. in Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii.
Sure, at 6-7 Fresno State might be the only team this season to enter its bowl game with a losing record. Rice battled back from an awful start to get to 7-5 for the year.
However, there is no chance the intensity in this matchup will be any less than that of some elite teams competing in later bowls. Both sides want to end the year on a high note and will do whatever it takes to get that final win.
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With two competitive teams, this battle could come down to just a few players. However, here is a look at the factors that will truly decide the winner in this competition.
Brian Burrell Taking Care of the Football
Although he hasn't exactly made people forget about Derek Carr, Brian Burrell has had some big performances this season as Fresno State's quarterback. Head coach Tim DeRuyter was impressed by the play of the junior toward the end of the year:
His best showing came against Nevada, where he accounted for five touchdowns in a 40-20 road win.
Unfortunately, those great efforts often came with bad ones. He finished with at least one interception in 11 of his 13 games this season and totaled 16 picks on the year. In the most recent matchup against Boise State, Burrell's three interceptions took the Bulldogs out of the game.
The good news is Rice has not done the best job of taking away the ball this year. The defense is among the bottom of the nation with just seven interceptions this season, contributing to an opponent passer efficiency that ranks 106th in the FBS.
If Burrell can take advantage of this and avoid turnovers, he will give Fresno State a good chance to win.
Rice Using the Rushing Attack
Although Rice has tried to use a balanced attack in most games this year, it is better when the run game is working.
Sophomores Jowan Davis and Darik Dillard make up a formidable tandem in the backfield and can usually take advantage of lanes when there are any. Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle noticed early in the year that this is a group that could blossom into big things:
"The Jowan Davis-Darik Dillard backfield combo will be fun to watch the next few years.
— Joseph Duarte (@Chronicle_Owls) September 20, 2014"
The good news is there should be a lot of running room in the Hawaii Bowl as Fresno State has struggled all year long to defend the run. The Bulldogs head into the bowl season allowing 206.9 rushing yards per game to rank 103rd in the nation.
Even Rice's inconsistent offensive line should be able to clear some running room for Davis and Dillard to help move the football and control the game.
Mentality During Fresno State Streak
Fresno State has done a great job of getting to bowl eligibility lately. Since 1999, the Bulldogs have only missed the postseason on two occasions.
However, just getting a bid is not enough anymore. You want to end the year with a win, and Fresno State has struggled in this aspect in recent years, losing its last five bowl games. This could lead to a lack of confidence going into the next matchup.
On the other hand, DeRuyter has shown a lot of intensity as he prepares for the Hawaii Bowl, via Marek Warszawski of The Fresno Bee:
While some teams go into the bowl season just waiting for the season to end, Fresno State likely wants to win this game more than anything after a bunch of disappointment on this stage.
Prediction
Neither team has shown too much consistency this season, which is why both are playing in the Hawaii Bowl and not on New Year's Eve. This makes it difficult to know what we will get from either side.
What we do know is that Fresno State has a lot of talent on offense that could do damage in this game. Burrell just needs to play an average game for him to take advantage of playmakers like Marteze Waller and Josh Harper.
The Bulldogs defense has been terrible, but so has the Owls defensive unit, with missed tackles and poor positioning plaguing the team all year long.
Although this might not be a pretty game to watch, Fresno State should be able to get back to .500 by defeating Rice in paradise.
Prediction: Fresno State 31, Rice 27
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