Moore Hoops: Loaded but Youthful UNC Could Be Next Year's No. 1
CHICAGO — The microscope that follows North Carolina basketball makes it difficult to pull back and look at the big picture of the program. It's just too easy to focus on the shooting troubles of Marcus Paige, the three losses that have already taken place—two real stinkers among them (Butler and Iowa)—and the ongoing scrutiny from the academic improprieties.
But on Saturday in Chicago, the promise of what could come was on display. North Carolina played a brilliant half of basketball with pristine ball movement that battered an Ohio State zone defense that had been more Syracuse-esque than any other imitator, and UNC's defense, built around great length, left OSU equally flummoxed.
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The fact that the Heels of the second half let the Buckeyes stick around spoke to what's taken place already this year, yet that first half suggested just how good the finished product could be.
"We have a long ways to go in terms of reaching our ceiling," Paige told Bleacher Report.
The impressive win got overshadowed by Kentucky's obliteration of UCLA that followed, but could it be, in UNC, we were watching Kentucky last year...with the possibility of next season mirroring what UK is doing now?
In terms of UK-levels of domination, that might be a bit of a stretch. But the signs that the Heels could develop into next year's No. 1 are there.
What has made UK's dominance possible is a few stars sticking around longer than expected, and that's looking more and more likely for the Heels.
When asked if this group will likely be together for a few years, Paige looked around the locker room and said: "We don't have very many seniors, so I would imagine this group is going to be together."
The Heels do have seniors, but none that has factored into the rotation. Paige is the star, and typically you'd expect a preseason first-team All-American to be gone after the year. But he hasn't been as good as expected thus far, and he doesn't exactly have the quickness or athleticism the NBA desires. Paige could play in the league, but he's likely a four-year college player.
Freshman wing Justin Jackson has more upside as a pro than any other Tar Heel, but he needs to add weight and stretch his range as a shooter.
Junior forward Brice Johnson has the athletic ability to intrigue NBA teams and could be the most likely to leave after this year, but the Heels are so deep inside that they could probably afford to lose him.
So assuming the Heels return their core or at least a majority of their core, the promise is in how the parts fit together.
Every great Roy Williams team plays fast and can get easy buckets. This team has played at a quick pace thus far—ranking 12th in adjusted tempo, per kenpom.com—and is a really good passing team. The Heels had 23 assists on 29 made field goals on Saturday.
"We share the ball," Williams said. "We're not a selfish team."
What the Heels are is a poor outside shooting team that has turned the ball over too often. But the exact same things could have been written four years ago when UNC started that 2010-11 season with a 7-4 record.
That group returned to school and ended up a No. 1 seed on a collision course for what would have been a great battle with Kentucky in the national title game. Then Kendall Marshall went down with a wrist injury, and UNC ran into a scrappy Kansas squad in the Elite Eight.
Those Heels learned how to take care of the ball, could play through their bigs and never really shot the ball well from deep, but at least they had a few threats.
This Carolina team is likely to shoot better than it has and is just getting used to playing through its bigs.
Last season, UNC's go-to guy inside was James Michael McAdoo, who was more of a pick-and-pop guy. With Kennedy Meeks, this team has more of the traditional back-to-the-basket scorer that Williams is used to having.
Meeks has been key to the offense on both ends. His outlet passes are fast-break starters, and he's averaging 13.3 points on shooting 61.5 percent. Both he and Johnson have also helped the Heels become one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, getting back 44.9 percent of their misses.
The outside shooting is more of a concern, but that is sure to at least get better than it has been thus far—a putrid 28.5 percent from beyond the arc.
Jackson has a great mid-range jumper—he's knocking down 52.5 percent of his two-point jumpers, according to Hoop-Math.com—but the shots from deep just haven't fallen. The stroke is too good for him not to eventually become a viable option, if not this year, then next.
And Paige is too good of a shooter for his shooting numbers (see chart) not to uptick closer to last year's averages.
| 2013-14 | 44.9% | 38.9% |
| 2014-15 | 33.3% | 34.2% |
"If I keep getting the looks I've been getting these past couple games, we're going to be fine, because they're not going to keep rimming in and out," Paige said. "I can promise you that."
Paige was at his best last year when he could play off the ball, and he's slowly making that move back to shooting guard. Backup point guards Nate Britt and Joel Berry II combined on Saturday for 11 points, five assists, one turnover and were perfect from the field in 25 minutes.
Berry was one of the top point guard prospects in his class, but he struggled to get on the floor in the first month of the season. Williams is starting to trust him with more minutes and deservedly so. In the last four games, the Heels have scored 120 points in 86 possessions (1.4 points per possession) with Berry on the floor.
Similar to the top-ranked Wildcats, the Heels also have the pieces to be a dominant defense. In a rotation of 10, Williams is playing five guys 6'8" or taller and another two (J.P. Tokoto and Theo Pinson) who are 6'6" and extremely athletic.
Ohio State coach Thad Matta went so far as to call UNC's defense "one of the best" in the country. It's not quite there yet, but there's no reason it can't be if Williams can get his guys to consistently play as hard as they did against the Buckeyes.
Let's remember that it took the Kentucky players who are dominating now some time to figure things out. Last year after losing to North Carolina, Kentucky had the exact same record (8-3) that UNC currently has and went on to be a No. 8 seed. The Heels are not quite as young as the Cats were, but they do have five underclassmen in the rotation.
And when everything clicks, like it did in the first half against the Buckeyes, you can start to see the possibilities.
More on Paige's Struggles
Paige is one of the most insightful players in college basketball, and he seems to be working through in his head what he needs to do to get right.
"I put a lot of pressure on myself," he said. "Last year, I had a couple meetings with Coach when we started ACC play, because I was beating myself up. We were 0-2 or 1-3 in the league, and I basically thought it was my fault because I wasn't shooting the ball well. I do that a lot. I tend to overanalyze things like that.
"I've been putting a lot of pressure on myself this year, and I think I'm at a good place right now mentally. I understand I don't need to have 35, but I need to play better. I need to play better than I have."
Paige said that last season he felt like he needed to play great for his team to win, and he started to think that way again when UNC went to the Battle 4 Atlantis, which started with a loss to Butler.
"Those Bahamas games were the first games we were tested, and I automatically reverted to 'I have to take over. I have to do what I did last year,'" Paige said. "But you see now with the transformation of Kennedy and the maturation of Brice that I don't necessarily have to do that. I still need to play better though."
Paige tries to give the sense that he is more trusting of his teammates, but you get the sense that he's still not sure he can count on them every game.
What the Heels really need is a second perimeter scorer to consistently show—Jackson is the best option there—or for one of the young point guards to be good enough to take some of the playmaking burden off of Paige.
Either way, he's too good of shooter with too much game for his struggles to continue much longer. Eventually, we'll see last year's Paige again.
Quick Hitters
*Ohio State is better this season than last year, but Thad Matta's squad isn't going to get back to chasing Final Fours again until he finds a scoring big man.
"We need more production out of those guys," Matta said of his current bigs after Saturday's loss to UNC.
That's not happening. The hope was that senior Amir Williams would eventually become a viable option in the post, but the clock is running out there. Matta has already signed big man Daniel Giddens in the 2015 class, but he is not a scorer. He's an athlete.
That's not to say the Buckeyes will not win a lot of games this year or next; they're just not going to be elite again until they find another scoring big.
*Kansas needs way more out of Perry Ellis.
What took place on Monday night in Philadelphia, a 77-52 loss to a mediocre Temple team, was the most embarrassing loss in the Bill Self era. Worse than Kentucky. Worse than any of the killer Bs.
The Jayhawks were a wreck on both ends, but the defense has been good enough in other games that Self will get it sorted out. Now for the offense to get going, Ellis has to be someone the Jayhawks can play through in the post. He has scored just nine points on 3-of-16 shooting over the last two games.
*Washington coach Lorenzo Romar deserves some serious love for what his team has pulled off this year. The Huskies are 10-0 with legit wins over San Diego State and Oklahoma. After three straight NCAA tourney-less seasons, Romar's job security was on shaky ground entering this year.
After this start, I'd put him in the running with Virginia's Tony Bennett and Kentucky's John Calipari for the most impressive coaching jobs to date.
Put the Kids to Bed or Set the DVR
All game times are in Eastern time.
*Stanford at No. 9 Texas, Tuesday (7 p.m. on ESPN2): The Cardinal (6-3) have been a bit of a disappointment and are yet to record a quality win. This is a chance for Texas to show itself as the Big 12 favorite with Kansas looking vulnerable.
Prediction: Texas 71, Stanford 60
*Indiana vs. Georgetown, Saturday (12 p.m. on ESPN2): Two fringe Top 25 teams go to battle at Madison Square Garden. The winner should break into next week's poll.
Prediction: Georgetown 72, Indiana 69
*No. 1 Kentucky at No. 4 Louisville, Saturday (2 p.m. on ESPN2): Could this be the last team with a legitimate shot to knock off UK? As bad as the SEC is, I'd say that's the case until the NCAA tournament. I'll be in Louisville for what has the chance to be the game of the year. Please don't pull a UCLA, Cards.
Prediction: Kentucky 69, Louisville 61
*No. 8 Gonzaga at BYU, Saturday (6 p.m. on ESPN2): Speaking of running the table the rest of the regular season, my bet is on the Zags as most likely not to lose from now until the tourney. Ken Pomeroy gives the Cougars the highest odds (35 percent) of anyone left on Gonzaga's schedule. BYU has lost only two games in the last two years—a two-point loss last year to Iowa State and a four-point loss earlier this month to Utah.
Prediction: Gonzaga 84, BYU 72
Leftovers
This is where I empty the notebook with some good stuff that was left out of a feature or column.
It's always interesting to hear the thought process of an NBA scout. I asked one of the scouts I talked to for my piece on Georgia State's R.J. Hunter if he has been impressed with how Hunter has evolved his game off the dribble and as a playmaker. His answer provided some good insight into how specialized the game is at the next level.
"I think you can always look at it from what's the minimum that he can be and what else can he become?" the scout said. "Because if you think about it logically for a second, the majority of college basketball players that go on and become NBA players find their roles different than they were in college.
"LeBron James is what he is. Derrick Rose is what he is. Those guys are unbelievable players, but the majority of college basketball players who move on to become NBA players, if they're in college and they're handling the ball and they're dropping dimes, well, those guys become defenders and shooters."
Here was his take on Hunter:
"What's the minimum he can be? He can be a shooter. Would I suggest he can be anything more than that? No. But would I believe it if he were to become that? Sure. Because a lot of success is dictated by the situation that he's put in initially, the work he's going to put in.
"The minimum is he's going to be a very, very good shooter. He's got the positional size. He comes from a very good stock in terms of toughness. His dad was such a warrior, so you have to imagine that's somewhere inside of him as well. I look at it from what the guy can be minimally and build from there. At minimum, he pasts the test of an NBA-caliber shooter. That's what I bank on."
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
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