NFL MVP 2014-15: Predictions and Odds for League's Highest Honor

The MVP award in the NFL is often difficult to predict. There's usually a bias in favor of the game's top quarterbacks. That means running backs, wide receivers or defensive players have to really do something special to even be in consideration.

We don't even need to talk about the plight of the offensive linemen or kickers. Kick rocks, big uglies and special teamers.

Per OddsShark, before this season began the Denver Broncos' Peyton Manning (7-2) was a slight favorite to win the MVP over the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers (6-1), New England Patriots' Tom Brady (9-1) and New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees (8-1). Current front-runner DeMarco Murray (150-1) was nowhere near the top contenders, while J.J. Watt wasn't listed at all.

Things have gone according to plan for the most part, with the exception of Brees.

While the Saints still have a shot at winning the NFC South, the team is guaranteed to finish with a losing record. So even though Brees could very well eclipse the 5,000-yard mark for the fourth year in a row, he won't even be a finalist for the award.

The Unexpected Contender

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Running backs are generally devalued in today's NFL, but the Dallas Cowboys' DeMarco Murray makes it hard to miss the impact he's had on his team's success. The Cowboys are 10-4 and currently in first place in the NFC East.

There isn't one Cowboy—including Tony Romo—more responsible for the team's success than Murray. He is leading the NFL in rushing with 1,687 yards through 14 games.

Murray also has a career-high in receptions (54) and receiving yards (395). Even though he's already over 2,000 yards from scrimmage, Murray needs a spectacular finish to wrestle the award away from the signal-callers.

He'll likely need to run for over 2,000 yards—which means averaging 156.5 yards per game in the final two weeks—and the Cowboys need to finish 12-4 to win the division. If Murray can accomplish that, he deserves the award.

Here's the issue: he just suffered a broken left hand that required surgery. Per Todd Archer of ESPN.com, Murray practiced on Thursday with protection on the hand.

This injury certainly makes you wonder whether he'll be as effective and capable of two huge games to finish the season. Also, if the Cowboys best the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, and the Philadelphia Eagles somehow lose to Washington. Dallas would clinch the division. 

That could keep Murray off the field for the season finale unless Dallas could earn itself a first-round bye. If he is able to fight through the injury and lead Dallas to the division title, it will only add to his campaign.

Murray's proven he's capable of a spectacular run to finish the year, but it's going to be tough.

J.J. Watt is Great But...

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The Houston Texans J.J. Watt has growing support for the MVP award. ESPN.com's Tania Ganguli is among those in favor of the dominant defensive lineman and goal-line tight end.

As awesome as Watt has been this season for the Texans, how can the most valuable player play for a team that probably isn't even going to the playoffs?

If the Texans find a way to claw their way into the postseason, then Watt becomes a serious contender.

If not, he'll have to settle for Defensive Player of the Year.

The Prediction

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Rodgers, Manning and Brady have all been spectacular this season. Each has or will eclipse the 4,000-yard passing mark and has thrown at least 32 touchdown passes with 11 or fewer interceptions. 

The Packers, Broncos and Patriots are also either in sole possession or tied for the lead in their respective divisions. All three have experienced individual and team success, but Brady has done more with less. Thus he's my pick for league MVP.

It's true Brady has finally had the services of the league's best tight end in Rob Gronkowski most of the year, but the Patriots are devoid of a top-notch wide receiver. As great as Rodgers is, he has two that could be a No. 1 option on several teams.

Manning has at least one in Demaryius Thomas, a stellar tight end in Julius Thomas—who did miss three games—and an offensive line that has only allowed 14 sacks this season. 

Brady has only been dumped 16 times, but Manning's weapons are still superior. There's also the likelihood that the Pats will finish with or tied for the top record in the NFL with the Broncos.

Because Brady again won the head-to-head battle with Manning, that could give him more of an edge.

It would be hard to argue with Rodgers, Murray, Manning or Brady getting their name called, but the latter is the choice that makes the most sense.