NFL Week 16 Picks: Rounding Up Top Experts' Predictions

All bettors and experts want for the holidays is a smooth slate of NFL Week 16 picks. 

No dice, folks.

Must-win games litter the schedule. Showdowns that look lopsided on paper are divisional matchups in which anything can happen. Cross-conference games, such as the Cleveland Browns against the Carolina Panthers, are guesses at best.

That is what makes this time of year fun, right?

With less time than ever to prepare, it is a good thing the experts are hard at work breaking down each matchup without hesitation. Sometimes, a little outside help is a good thing.

NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread (O/U)	Pick ATS	O/U Pick	Reason
Philadelphia at Washington (Sat., Dec. 20)	PHI -9 (50.5)	PHI	O	RG3 or not, the Eagles have the season on the line against a weak opponent.
San Diego at San Francisco (Sat., Dec. 20)	SF -2.5 (41)	SD	O	See analysis below.
Minnesota at Miami	MIA -7 (42.5)	MIA	U	Minnesota is underrated, but Miami has an elite defense that will handle a rookie quarterback well.
Baltimore at Houston	BAL -6 (41.5)	BAL	U	Baltimore will get back to its ground ways to counteract a rush led by J.J. Watt.
Detroit at Chicago	DET -7 (46)	DET	O	Detroit's rush will force Jimmy Clausen into plenty of critical mistakes.
Cleveland at Carolina	CAR -3.5 (40.5)	CAR	O	Johnny Manziel on the road is bad news, especially if his run defense continues to perform miserably.
Atlanta at New Orleans	NO -6.5 (56)	ATL	O	New Orleans cannot win at home, so look for Matt Ryan to outduel Drew Brees.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay	GB -12 (49)	GB	O	An angry Aaron Rodgers will shred though a miserable defense.
Kansas City at Pittsburgh	PIT -3 (46.5)	PIT	U	Pittsburgh seems in stride at this point, and Kansas City will have no answer for Le'Veon Bell.
New England at NY Jets	NE -11 (47.5)	NE	O	Divisional battles are tougher than most things, but not when it comes to playing the Patriots. Just ask Miami.
NY Giants at St. Louis	STL -5.5 (43.5)	NYG	U	St. Louis will have no answer for rookie star Odell Beckham.
Buffalo at Oakland	BUF -7 (39)	OAK	U	A trip to Oakland is no easy task, but Buffalo can win outright thanks to a great defense.
Indianapolis at Dallas	DAL -1 (55)	IND	O	See analysis below.
Seattle at Arizona	SEA -9 (36.5)	SEA	O	An extended rest for Arizona means a strong performance at home.
Denver at Cincinnati (Mon., Dec. 22)	DEN -3.5 (48)	DEN	U	Cincinnati cannot stop elite passers or show up in major prime-time games.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 8 p.m. ET on Dec. 18.

Bleacher Report Expert Picks

Game	Matt Miller	Mike Freeman	Matt Bowen	Michael Schottey	Chris Simms
PHI vs. WAS	PHI	WAS	PHI	PHI	PHI
SD vs. SF	SD	SD	SD	SD	SF
MIN at MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA
BAL at HOU	BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL
DET at CHI	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET
CLE at CAR	CLE	CAR	CLE	CAR	CLE
ATL at NO	ATL	NO	NO	ATL	ATL
GB at TB	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB
KC at PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT
NE at NYJ	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
NYG at STL	NYG	NYG	NYG	STL	NYG
BUF at OAK	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF
IND at DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL
SEA at ARI	SEA	ARI	SEA	SEA	SEA
DEN at CIN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	CIN

Full view of Bleacher Report's expert picks available here. 

Highlighting Underdogs to Bet

San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Look, the San Diego Chargers are difficult to trust as of late. They've lost two straight, which is as bad as it sounds, even if those losses did come against the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos. 

That pales in comparison to the hapless San Francisco 49ers, though.

Jim Harbaugh's team has lost three straight and is out of playoff contention as a result. Throw a little salt in the wound too—Harbaugh's future with the team is in doubt, as the collegiate game seems to be calling him.

Also throw in the fact that both Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde are not 100 percent, as captured by Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com:

Got all that? San Francisco is out of the playoffs and demoralized, its head coach may be eying the exit, and its top two running backs may not be around on a short week to compensate for a 28th-ranked passing attack.

See why San Diego is a safe bet?

To be fair, Philip Rivers will be without top target Keenan Allen (783 yards and four scores). The same goes for back Ryan Mathews, not that the Chargers make any effort to run the ball at a consistent clip anyway.

Rivers' completion percentage of 67.6 for 3,639 yards with 27 touchdowns to 13 interceptions says a lot about his form this year. Even without a few starters around him, it is difficult to dislike his chances of willing the Chargers to a road win.

San Francisco may be at home, but a game with no meaning and plenty of outside distractions will hurt the 49ers, a team that feasts on game-tempo control. There will be none of that Saturday.

Prediction: Chargers 24, 49ers 10 

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-1)

An injury to a running back is a reason to go against the Dallas Cowboys this weekend too. 

DeMarco Murray is a force of nature this year with 1,687 yards and 11 scores, but he underwent hand surgery recently. Now, it sounds like the Cowboys star will play, but one has to question how effective he can be when he's not 100 percent.

Look at it this way: A hurt hand means less ball security. It also means Murray may shy away from carrying with that hand, which, in turn, means predictable running plays.

Regardless, Colts coach Chuck Pagano sounds ready for the challenge the Cowboys present, 100 percent healthy or not, per Phillip B. Wilson of Scout.com:

Even if Murray does not suit up, the Cowboys are dangerous thanks to Tony Romo, who has completed 69.3 percent of his passes this season for 3,188 yards and 28 touchdowns to eight interceptions.

Really, though, the Cowboys prefer to stay on the ground. Indianapolis? Not so much. Thank a tandem of horrible backs and great play from Andrew Luck for that. The Stanford product has 4,492 yards and 38 touchdowns to 14 interceptions this year, with nine touchdowns to four picks over the course of his last three outings.

A 23rd-ranked Dallas pass defense is not going to stop the Luck show at this point. The Cowboys have lost their last three games at home, so pair that with an injury to Murray, and the Colts seem ready to steal one in what is one of the weekend's best matchups. 

Prediction: Colts 28, Cowboys 24

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).