Mainz vs. Bayern Munich: Issues and Decisions That Will Shape Bundesliga Game
Bayern Munich and Mainz will wrap up their respective Bundesliga fall campaigns on Friday as they face off at the Coface Arena. It's been a long half-season for both sides, and although many among Pep Guardiola's men returned to club duty fatigued following the World Cup, the Bavarians recovered from a somewhat slow start to have one of the most dominant half-seasons in league history.
Mainz have struggled somewhat in the absence of Thomas Tuchel, but they are 11th and could enter the winter break within striking distance of a Europa League spot.
Ahead of Friday's match, B/R previews the action with a look at the important factors that could most influence the result. Click "Begin Slideshow" for full analysis.
Loris Karius: The Real Deal?
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Loris Karius' name has been the hot topic of discussion in the transfer market ever since this summer. In August, Portuguese football expert Jan Hagen tweeted that A Bola and O Jogo had run reports that Benfica were intent on signing the 21-year-old, having scouted them during the 2013-14 campaign. The highly rated goalkeeper turned down a move, however, pledging to German source Kicker that he would fulfill his contract.
Karius still has not renewed his deal at Mainz, which expires at season's end. And now he's set to be one of the world's most desirable goalkeepers available on a free transfer. Kicker's aggregate player ratings for the season indicate that Karius is one of Germany's finest custodians, with only two names having received a more favorable rating among those who at the time of this article's writing were assessed based on 10 games or more.
Friday's match is a good opportunity for Karius to show his credentials and prove he's worth the hype. The stage is as big as he'll find this season: With a good performance against Bayern, he could gain considerably more interest and more potential suitors.
Bastian Schweinsteiger's Readiness
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Bayern have largely been able to cope with the absence of Bastian Schweinsteiger this season, primarily due to the outstanding performance of new signing Xabi Alonso. The Spaniard has been a bit of a revelation for the Munich giants. He will be unavailable to play on Friday, however, having sustained an injury in Tuesday's 2-0 win over Freiburg. The player confirmed this much to German source TZ shortly after the game.
Bayern are generally short of staff in midfield, and in addition to Alonso, Sebastian Rode (per ESPN's Stephan Uersfeld) is a doubt as well. The best option for Bayern, it would seem, is to use Bastian Schweinsteiger in Alonso's normal position. However, the 30-year-old has only played more than a half on two occasions and the full 90 minutes once this season. His performance has generally been good, but it won't be easy and he'll need to be sharp and fully fit against a Mainz team known for their ability to press and stifle opponents in the build-up.
Okazaki Against the Giants
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Shinji Okazaki is the type of forward who would fit well into Pep Guardiola's philosophy. It's not his size and raw strength and power that make him effective, but rather his skill on the ball and ability to find windows to shoot. Although rather undersized at his position (1.74 meters, per Transfermarkt), he's still managed to score eight goals this Bundesliga season, putting him on track to exceed last year's tally of 15.
Okazaki will have to prove that size isn't everything as he comes up against a Bayern central defense that contains giants. Although Bayern announced via their Twitter account that Mehdi Benatia will miss the Mainz game after suffering a groin injury on Tuesday, the Bundesliga leaders can expect to have Jerome Boateng (1.92 meters) and Dante (1.88 meters) in their starting lineup. Okazaki will therefore have to prove that size isn't everything as he plays the role of David in a matchup against two Goliaths.
Whether Bayern Can Cope with Their Many Injuries and Little Rest
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Bayern had to make three substitutions within the first hour of Tuesday's match as Alonso, Benatia and Robert Lewandowski left the pitch injured. Although the latter's prognosis for the Mainz game is still unclear, with the Spaniard and Moroccan both injured and Bayern's squad already riddled with injuries, Pep Guardiola will have few options in any position for Friday's match.
Bayern may have considerably more depth than any other team in the Bundesliga, but even they are now approaching their limits. This becomes especially apparent when considering that they will play on Friday their fifth game in 14 days. Guardiola may well be forced to use reserve players, at least as substitutes, and their weaknesses will need to be covered by the more senior players. If there was any time that Bayern could be foreseen to slip up, it's Friday. But it's good for the league leaders that they're only reaching the breaking point with one match left to play.
