San Diego Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The San Diego Chargers hope to stay in the playoff hunt with a road victory on Saturday night against the San Francisco 49ers, who were eliminated from postseason contention with a 17-7 loss to the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday. The Chargers remain in the AFC playoff picture despite losing two straight at home and failing to cover the spread in eight of nine games overall.

Point spread: The 49ers opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 16.8-16.5 Chargers

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

San Diego has an outside shot at the playoffs and was able to win a key road game the last time the team played away from home. The Chargers upset the Baltimore Ravens 34-33 as 6.5-point underdogs in Week 13 and hold the tiebreaker due to that head-to-head result if both teams finish with the same record. 

Baltimore owns a bigger home-field advantage than San Francisco, as the 49ers have lost two of their last three at new Levi’s Stadium, going 0-3 against the spread. In fact, San Francisco is just 1-7 ATS in its past eight home games, including 1-5 versus the line there this season.

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

The 49ers are playing hard for head coach Jim Harbaugh despite dropping three straight games to fall out of the NFC playoff race. While it's hard to believe the Oakland Raiders scored more points against the San Francisco defense than any other opponent over the last five games, it is the team’s offense that has been more of an issue down the stretch.

But San Diego’s defense has been nothing special lately, surrendering an average of 25.5 points in the last four games. Playing the Chargers might be just what the 49ers need to rediscover their offense.

Smart pick

San Diego has won the past three meetings with San Francisco both straight up and ATS, also covering four of the previous five games between the teams since losing Super Bowl XXIX 49-26 as a 19-point underdog. The Chargers have made a habit of finishing the year strong and making a run at the postseason even if they do not end up in the playoffs.

They were 7-3 the previous two Decembers combined and are 0-2 so far this month. San Diego has something to play for here, while the 49ers have a lot of other things going on behind the scenes with the future of Harbaugh up in the air. The Chargers will be more focused and motivated to not only cover but win as well.

Betting trends

• San Diego is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games.
• San Francisco is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games at home.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.