Odds of Each Suitor Acquiring Top Remaining 2014 MLB Free-Agent, Trade Targets
From Max Scherzer to Jordan Zimmermann, there are still some big-time arms up for grabs on the 2014 MLB free-agent and trade markets.
While there are lots of front-line starters to be had, the pool of impact bats has all but dried up. What follows is a rundown of the odds of each suitor acquiring the top remaining targets on the free-agent and trade fronts. The teams with the best odds are the clubs that have expressed the most interest in a given free agent and who have the pieces necessary to make a big trade happen.
There's only one position player who cracks the list, but the outfielder provides a ton of pop.
Jordan Zimmermann, SP
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The Trade Target
The Washington Nationals certainly don't have to trade Jordan Zimmermann.
As Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post reports, the Nats have already begun talking to the right-handed ace about working out a multiyear contract extension. If no deal can be reached, shipping out Zimmermann wouldn't be the worst idea either, as he's set to become a free agent at the end of the 2015 season.
The fact that Zimmermann is only under club control for one more season seriously limits his trade value and means there's still an excellent chance he'll still be with the National League East club when Opening Day 2015 rolls around.
Odds of Zimmermann Staying with the Nationals: 1-1
Seattle Mariners
According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Nats and the Seattle Mariners have discussed the possibility of making a trade involving not only Zimmermann, but also shortstop Ian Desmond. Rosenthal reports that Washington asked the M's for right-hander Taijuan Walker and shortstop Brad Miller.
As good as Zimmermann and Desmond are, that's a lot to ask for considering that both players become free agents at the end of next season.
Odds of the Mariners Acquiring Zimmermann: 2-1
Boston Red Sox
Rosenthal writes that Washington has also checked in with the Boston Red Sox about a possible swap. After missing out on Jon Lester, the Red Sox could definitely use a front-line starter. However, the big question is just how much would the team be willing to give up to land a pitcher who might only stay at Fenway Park for one season?
Odds of the Red Sox Acquiring Zimmermann: 5-1
James Shields, SP
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The Free-Agent Target
Having worked at least 200 innings in each of the past eight seasons, James Shields has been one of the most reliable starting pitchers in the big leagues. Even with that impressive track record, there hasn't been a ton of buzz surrounding the veteran right-hander. Here's a look at a few of the clubs that have checked in on Shields.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers' rotation could use some help.
Last year, the injury-riddled staff posted the second-worst ERA in the American League. Adding Shields would provide the club an immediate improvement in that department. According to TR Sullivan of MLB.com, Texas "met" with the starter, but general manager Jon Daniels told him that a "deal is highly unlikely."
Odds of the Rangers Signing Shields: 9-1
Boston Red Sox
Having added Wade Miley, Justin Masterson and Rick Porcello, the Boston Red Sox have been busy upgrading the club's rotation.
Even with those additions the team could still use an ace to headline the staff. According to Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe, the Red Sox "are believed to have met with" Shields. Then again, with a career ERA of 3.72, Shields isn't exactly a No. 1 starter.
Odds of the Red Sox Signing Shields: 9-4
San Francisco Giants
One of the top priorities for the San Francisco Giants this offseason is to bolster the team's rotation. According to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN, Shields could be just the arm to help the Giants accomplish that goal. Crasnick tweets that "lots of baseball people" point to the Giants as the "best fit" for Shields.
Odds of the Giants Signing Shields: 3-2
The Mystery Team
Considering how quiet the market for Shields has been, it's still highly possible that a surprise team will swoop in and sign the starter. After all, there are an array of clubs around the league that could use a reliable veteran like Shields.
Odds of a Mystery Team Signing Shields: 4-1
Justin Upton, LF
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The Trade Target
According to Mark Bowman of MLB.com, the Atlanta Braves are definitely taking calls on Justin Upton. The powerful right-handed hitter, who clubbed 29 home runs in 2014, has been "linked" to the San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners, per Bowman.
Odds of Upton Staying with the Braves: 9-1
San Diego Padres
As Bowman explains, the Padres are still interested in making a move for Upton after landing Matt Kemp in a trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Bowman mentions Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross as a couple of names that the Braves would be interested in dealing for.
Odds of the Padres Acquiring Upton: 2-1
San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants could certainly use a impact hitter like Upton. The question, however, is whether the club has the pieces to make the move happen. San Francisco's farm system checked in at the No. 27 spot in Bleacher Report's rankings of minor league systems.
Odds of the Giants Acquiring Upton: 5-1
Seattle Mariners
If the Braves and the Seattle Mariners are going to work out a trade, it won't include Taijuan Walker or James Paxton. According to Bowman, both of those starters are off the table.
Odds of the Mariners Acquiring Upton: 3-2
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Max Scherzer, SP
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The Free-Agent Target
It sure is quiet on the Max Scherzer front.
According to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, Scherzer is looking to make more than $200 million on his next contract. So far, there don't appear to be any teams with the slightest interest in offering that kind of payday.
Detroit Tigers
A return to Motown doesn't seem to be in Scherzer's future. When asked about the topic of bringing back the 2013 Al Cy Young Award winner, Detroit Tigers assistant general manager Al Avila told Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio that the team has had "no conversations" with Scherzer's "camp."
Odds of the Tigers Re-Signing Scherzer: 6-1
Washington Nationals
According to Pete Kerzel of MASN, it's unlikely that the Washington Nationals will get involved in the bidding war for Scherzer. As Kerzel explains, the only way that a move for the right-hander would make sense is if the Nats decided to ship out free-agent to-be Jordan Zimmermann.
Odds of the Nationals Signing Scherzer: 4-1
St. Louis Cardinals
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes that the St. Louis Cardinals have "at least considered" the idea of inking Scherzer. Heyman adds that a few Cardinals players have even reached out to the starter to try and recruit him to the NL Central champs.
Odds of the Cardinals Signing Scherzer: 6-1
The Mystery Team
If Scherzer is going to hit his $200-million target, it seems like a mystery team is going to have to step up. Just don't count on that team being the New York Yankees. According to Brendan Kuty of NJ.com, GM Brian Cashman told NBC's Sports Final that a Scherzer megadeal isn't in the team's plans: “I don’t think Yankee fans will be looking at Max Scherzer."
Odds of a Mystery Team Signing Scherzer: 1-1
Note: All stats courtesy of MLB.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts on BaseballProspectus.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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