NFL Week 16 Picks: Game-by-Game Over/Under Predictions

After a week in which Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos put up just 22 points, it is easy to see why bettors may be wary of the over/under portions of NFL Week 16 picks.

Not to fret, though—the point totals remain a strong way to insulate outright and spread bets.

In fact, it is the spreads themselves that are quite tricky in Week 16. With only a few teams locks to head to the postseason, Las Vegas seems to have its eyes out for spoilers just as much as bettors do.

Bettors are surely busy this time of year, so let's swing things back in their favor a bit with a game-by-game look at the latest offerings from the house.

NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread (O/U)	Pick ATS	O/U Pick	Reason
Tennessee at Jacksonville (Thurs., Dec. 18)	JAC -3 (40)	JAC	O	A short week for these two spells trouble, but feel free to defer to the home team.
Philadelphia at Washington (Sat., Dec. 20)	PHI -9 (51)	PHI	O	RG3 or not, the Eagles have the season on the line against a weak opponent.
San Diego at San Francisco (Sat., Dec. 20)	SF -2.5 (41.5)	SD	O	San Francisco is in a free fall with an offense that cannot get it together.
Minnesota at Miami	MIA -7 (43)	MIA	U	Minnesota is underrated, but Miami has an elite defense that will handle a rookie quarterback well.
Baltimore at Houston	BAL -6 (41.5)	BAL	U	Baltimore will get back to its ground ways to counteract a rush led by J.J. Watt.
Detroit at Chicago	DET -7 (46)	DET	O	Detroit's rush will force Jay Cutler into plenty of critical mistakes.
Cleveland at Carolina	CAR -3.5 (39.5)	CAR	O	Johnny Manziel on the road is bad news, especially if his run defense continues to perform miserably.
Atlanta at New Orleans	NO -6.5 (56)	ATL	O	See analysis below.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay	GB -11 (48.5)	GB	O	An angry Aaron Rodgers will shred though a miserable defense.
Kansas City at Pittsburgh	PIT -3 (46.5)	PIT	U	Pittsburgh seems in stride at this point, and Kansas City will have no answer for Le'Veon Bell.
New England at NY Jets	NE -11 (47.5)	NE	O	Divisional battles are tougher than most things, but not when it comes to playing the Patriots. Just ask Miami.
NY Giants at St. Louis	STL -5.5 (43.5)	NYG	U	St. Louis will have no answer for rookie star Odell Beckham.
Buffalo at Oakland	BUF -6 (39)	OAK	U	See analysis below.
Indianapolis at Dallas	DAL -1 (55)	IND	O	Andrew Luck will make short work of the Cowboys defense.
Seattle at Arizona	SEA -9 (37)	SEA	O	An extended rest for Arizona means a strong performance at home.
Denver at Cincinnati (Mon., Dec. 22)	DEN -3.5 (48)	DEN	U	Cincinnati cannot stop elite passers or show up in major prime-time games.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 8 a.m. ET on Dec. 17.

Top Over/Under Odds to Bet

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6.5); Over/Under: (56)

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Sometimes it is just this simple. 

Las Vegas may not recall, but NFC South rivals New Orleans and Atlanta did their first of two dances earlier this year. The Falcons own the bragging rights for a win over the Saints in that one, with the final overtime tally coming in at 37-34—quite a bit larger than the current number for this one.

It is not as if either offense is in a serious downward spiral as of late, either. Drew Brees and the Saints have 31 or more points in two of their last three, while Matt Ryan and the Falcons have 29 or more as many times in that span.

As the numbers show, both defenses are susceptible through the air—to say the least.

Brees has 4,358 yards and 31 scores to his name this season. A good recent measure as to how he should perform against a woeful Atlanta defense came just last Monday, when he torched a 31st-ranked Chicago Bears defense for 375 yards and three scores.

Ryan himself had a "down" outing last week against a 25th-ranked Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense, throwing for 310 yards with two touchdowns and a pick.

Now imagine what the two will do against one another with both still alive for the postseason.

New Orleans controls their own fate as the leaders of the division right now. However, pair an earlier result against these Falcons with the fact they have lost their last four games at home, and it becomes difficult to see how they cover a spread this big.

Make no mistake: The over here is the only way to go. So too is a home team with everything to lose against the league's worst pass defense.

Prediction: Saints 36, Falcons 30

Buffalo Bills (-6) at Oakland Raiders; Over/Under: 39

This one has the under written all over it.

The Buffalo Bills bring a top pass defense into this one just a single week removed from holding Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers to 185 yards and two interceptions. They also happen to be two weeks removed from holding Peyton Manning of the Denver Broncos to 173 yards and a pair of picks.

Oakland Raiders rookie quarterback Derek Carr is in the middle of a great debut season, with 2,898 yards and 18 touchdowns. To expect him to do what Rodgers and Manning could not is downright obscene.

This is especially the case when Oakland is one of the most erratic of all teams this year. Just a few weeks back, Carr and Co. lost 52-0, only to win 24-13 the week after.

That said, the Raiders do come equipped with a top-10 pass defense. The unit figures to give Buffalo starter Kyle Orton (2,513 yards, 14 touchdowns, eight interceptions) some problems.

Things favor Buffalo in a low-scoring affair, especially with a spot to the postseason still a possible outcome.

"Obviously we got to go to Oakland and find a way to get a victory," cornerback Corey Graham said, per ESPN.com's Mike Rodak. "If we get a victory, hopefully it will mean something. We don’t know exactly how everything gonna go out, but all we can do is go out there and compete and play our best out there."

Look for Buffalo to jump out to an early lead and then grind the clock with players such as Fred Jackson against an iffy run defense. It will be quite an ugly affair, but by far one of the most important wins of the season for the Bills.

Prediction: Bills 20, Raiders 17

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).