Fantasy Football Week 16: Rankings, Projections and Waiver-Wire Tips

Those pesky Buffalo Bills ended the seasons of many fantasy owners for the second consecutive week. Just seven days after holding Peyton Manning to two fantasy points, they allowed just five to Aaron Rodgers. Luckily, not many of us plan on starting Derek Carr against them in Week 16.

If you were one of the few to survive yet another week in the fantasy realm—perhaps because you were against Rodgers—you're just one game away from claiming your league's title and earning bragging rights over your league's opposing owners until next season.

Of course, with the year's biggest game on the line, early preparation is crucial. After all, you don't want to be caught sleeping and allow your opponent to snatch the Baltimore Ravens defense—it plays Tom Savage and the Houston Texans in Week 16—off the waiver wire.

As we await fantasy championship games across the nation to commence, let's get a head start on the opposition by taking a look at rankings and projections for the league's top players well before Week 16 kicks off.

Thursday, December 18	Time (ET)
Saturday, December 20	Time (ET)
Sunday, December 21	Time (ET)
Monday, December 22	Time (ET)
Tennessee at Jacksonville	8:25 p.m.
Philadelphia at Washington	4:30 p.m.
San Diego at San Francisco	8:25 p.m.
Baltimore at Houston	1 p.m.
Cleveland at Carolina	1 p.m.
Detroit at Chicago	1 p.m.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay	1 p.m.
Kansas City at Pittsburgh	1 p.m.
Minnesota at Miami	1 p.m.
New England at NY Jets	1 p.m.
Atlanta at New Orleans	1 p.m.
NY Giants at St. Louis	4:05 p.m.
Buffalo at Oakland	4:25 p.m.
Indianapolis at Dallas	4:25 p.m.
Seattle at Arizona	8:30 p.m.
Denver at Cincinnati	8:30 p.m.

(Note: Please keep in mind any highlighted players when checking out the rankings; it means they're either an injury risk heading into Week 16 or are on the schedule for Monday night.) 

Rank	Player	Projected Points
1	Aaron Rodgers, GB	25
2	Andrew Luck, IND	24
3	Tom Brady, NE	23
4	Drew Brees, NO	22
5	Matt Ryan, ATL	22
6	Peyton Manning, DEN	21
7	Tony Romo, DAL	20
8	Joe Flacco, BAL	19
9	Matthew Stafford, DET	18
10	Mark Sanchez, PHI	17
11	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT	17
12	Russell Wilson, SEA	16
13	Philip Rivers, SD	15
14	Eli Manning, NYG	14
15	Jay Cutler, CHI	14
16	Josh McCown, TB	14
17	Colin Kaepernick, SF	13
18	Kyle Orton, BUF	13
19	Ryan Tannehill, MIA	12
20	Andy Dalton, CIN	12

Top Dog: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Yes, it's Rodgers. If you happen to own Rodgers and still managed to win your Week 15 matchup, you're in great shape going forward. Expect this prolific quarterback to atone for his down performance with a huge showing against the hapless secondary of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers haven't been good against quarterbacks lately, allowing 311 yards and three touchdowns to Matthew Stafford in Week 14, and 277 yards and a score to Derek Anderson in Week 15. Rodgers is one of the NFL's elite signal-callers, and he should easily be able to put up well over 25 fantasy points against Tampa Bay.

This is a dream scenario for a fantasy owner in a championship game.

Sleeper: Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

Flacco's had a bit of a roller-coaster season—that sure seems like a familiar narrative. However, he's been rather consistent over the last four weeks, throwing for more than 200 yards and a touchdown in each game. When he's thrown for two touchdowns in that stretch (twice), he's earned 23 fantasy points.

Nick Wass/Associated Press

He'll have a great change to get to that number in Week 16 against the Texans. While Houston has been better against the quarterback position of late, the team doesn't exactly have a solid track record of keeping the position out of the end zone multiple times in a game, allowing at least two touchdowns to signal-caller in nine of its 14 contests this season.

For fantasy owners in a pinch, Flacco may not light up the scoreboard, but he makes for a reliable play in Week 16.

Beware: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger has been lighting up fantasy scoreboards of late, throwing for over 350 yards in his last three contests. However, that trend may not continue in Week 16 against a stingy Kansas City Chiefs pass defense that has held opposing signal-callers to less than 20 fantasy points in all but two contests this season.

While Pittsburgh's quarterback has put up some gaudy numbers at times this season, keep in mind he hasn't been overly consistent, throwing one touchdown or less in half of his games this season. His forthcoming matchup doesn't help with the confidence factor.

Rank	Player	Projected Points
1	Le'Veon Bell, PIT	21
2	DeMarco Murray, DAL	20
3	LeSean McCoy, PHI	19
4	Eddie Lacy, GB	18
5	Jamaal Charles, KC	18
6	Justin Forsett, BAL	17
7	C.J. Anderson, DEN	16
8	Joique Bell, DET	15
9	Jonathan Stewart, CAR	15
10	Matt Forte, CHI	14
11	Tre Mason, STL	14
12	Mark Ingram, NO	13
13	Marshawn Lynch, SEA	12
14	Arian Foster, HOU	11
15	Fred Jackson, BUF	10
16	Daniel Herron, IND	10
17	Chris Ivory, NYJ	9
18	Jeremy Hill, CIN	9
19	Steven Jackson, ATL	8
20	Frank Gore, SF	8
21	Lamar Miller, MIA	8
22	Doug Martin, TB	7
23	Andre Williams, NYG	7
24	LeGarrette Blount, NE	7
25	Latavius Murray, OAK	6
26	Ryan Mathews, SD	6
27	Alfred Morris, WAS	6
28	Matt Asiata, MIN	5
29	Giovani Bernard, CIN	5
30	Kerwynn Williams, ARI	5

Top Dog: Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

Bell has been on an absolute tear over the past four weeks, accumulating at least 23 fantasy points in each contest. How has he managed that feat? Well, he's scored in every game over that span and continues to establish himself as a big part of the team's passing game.

The Kansas City Chiefs' biggest weakness in recent weeks has been against the run. While they managed to hold the Oakland Raiders to a total of 78 rushing yards in Week 15 due to a blowout victory, they gave up more than 100 yards on the ground in each of their previous six contests.

One downside to this matchup is Kansas City's ability to keep ball-carriers out of the end zone, as they've allowed just two rushing touchdowns this season. However, considering Bell has scored a total of seven touchdowns in his last four games, fantasy owners shouldn't be overly concerned about that statistic.

Sleeper: Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills

Jackson hasn't been much of a fantasy stud this season, accumulating double-digit fantasy points just three times; however, there's reason to believe he'll increase that number to four in Week 16 with a favorable matchup against the Raiders.

Gary Wiepert/Associated Press

Oakland has been giving up a slew of yards and touchdowns to opposing backfields this season, allowing ball-carriers to rack up at least 20 fantasy points in nine games this season. In Week 15, Chiefs running backs combined for 32 fantasy points despite carrying only 23 times.

That's great news for Jackson, who's assumed lead back responsibilities in Buffalo, carrying a team-high 20 times against the Packers in Week 15. With Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown combining for just 10 rushes, Jackson doesn't have much competition and should reap the benefits against Oakland.

Beware: Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals

Bernard has quickly lost his fantasy appeal following the emergence of rookie Jeremy Hill. The veteran carried just 15 times for 79 yards in a blowout victory over the Cleveland Browns in Week 15, watching Hill tote the ball 25 times for 148 yards while scoring twice. Even third-string running back Rex Burkhead found paydirt.

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

Considering Bernard's usage has declined, he's not in good shape heading into a difficult contest against a very stingy Denver Broncos run defense—one that has allowed just one 100-yard performance from an opposing backfield this season and has given up one rushing touchdown in its last 10 games.

It's difficult to count on Bernard as a receiver, either. The Bengals haven't utilized him often enough in this department this year, and he hasn't caught more than three passes in his last six games played.

Rank	Player	Projected Points
1	Jordy Nelson, GB	18
2	Dez Bryant, DAL	18
3	Calvin Johnson, DET	17
4	T.Y. Hilton, IND	16
5	Julio Jones, ATL	16
6	Antonio Brown, PIT	15
7	Demaryius Thomas, DEN	15
8	A.J. Green, CIN	14
9	Odell Beckham Jr., NYG	14
10	Jeremy Maclin, PHI	13
11	Mike Evans, TB	13
12	Alshon Jeffery, CHI	13
13	Josh Gordon, CLE	12
14	Kenny Stills, NO	12
15	Kelvin Benjamin, CAR	12
16	Brandon LaFell, NE	11
17	Marques Colston, NO	11
18	Emmanuel Sanders, DEN	11
19	Stedman Bailey, STL	11
20	Golden Tate, DET	10
21	Mike Wallace, MIA	10
22	Eric Decker, NYJ	10
23	Roddy White, ATL	9
24	Randall Cobb, GB	9
25	Torrey Smith, BAL	9
26	Sammy Watkins, BUF	9
27	Vincent Jackson, TB	8
28	Jordan Matthews, PHI	8
29	Nate Washington, TEN	8
30	Charles Johnson, MIN	7
31	Julian Edelman, NE	7
32	DeAndre Hopkins, HOU	7
33	Steve Smith, BAL	7
34	DeSean Jackson, WAS	6
35	Jarvis Landry, MIA	6
36	Michael Crabtree, SF	6
37	Doug Baldwin, SEA	5
38	Keenan Allen, SD	5
39	Cecil Shorts III, JAX	5
40	Kenny Britt, STL	5

Top Dog: Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers

Nelson didn't have it easy against Buffalo in Week 15. He tallied five receptions for 55 yards to tie his second-lowest fantasy performance of the season. He had his opportunities, but things just didn't pan out. Well, that's very likely to change in Week 16 against the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay has been very friendly to opposing wide receivers this season, allowing 20 or more fantasy points to the position in eight games this season. Wideouts haven't been strangers to the end zone against the Buccaneers this season, either. They have tallied at least one touchdown in all but three games in 2014.

Nelson will continue to see plenty of targets from Rodgers. Despite his lackluster performance against the Bills, the ball was thrown in his direction 12 times. Fantasy owners should expect those looks to result in a bevy of fantasy points in this impending contest.

Sleeper: Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns

Gordon generally isn't mentioned as a sleeper candidate, but with Johnny Manziel at the helm in Cleveland, that will be the case for Week 16. The rookie quarterback was terrible against the Bengals, throwing for just 80 yards and two interceptions. However, there's a silver lining: Gordon had 48 of those yards.

Jason Miller/Getty Images

With their rookie quarterback struggling, expect the Browns to force-feed Gordon, as he gives Manziel the best chance to succeed through the air. Combine that expected strategy with a matchup against a Carolina Panthers team that has been torched by opposing wideouts this year, and you get a sneaky good fantasy play.

Beware: All Arizona Cardinals Receivers

Cardinals receivers weren't great options with Drew Stanton at the helm, and now their fantasy relevance takes another huge hit with Ryan Lindley—with a little Logan Thomas sprinkled in—under center. The quarterback is highly inexperienced, and an upcoming matchup against a very good Seattle Seahawks defense implores fantasy owners to keep the team's full corps of wideouts on the bench in Week 16.

Rank	Player	Projected Points
1	Rob Gronkowski, NE	14
2	Jimmy Graham, NO	14
3	Greg Olsen, CAR	13
4	Julius Thomas, DEN	12
5	Travis Kelce, KC	11
6	Antonio Gates, SD	11
7	Delanie Walker, TEN	10
8	Dwayne Allen, IND	9
9	Jason Witten, DAL	9
10	Owen Daniels, BAL	8
11	Kyle Rudolph, MIN	8
12	Martellus Bennett, CHI	7
13	Larry Donnell, NYG	6
14	Mychal Rivera, OAK	6
15	Heath Miller, PIT	5

Top Dog: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

There isn't any reason to rank a tight end above Gronkowski entering Week 16. He's accumulated 11 touchdowns on the season and is coming off a 96-yard outing against a Miami Dolphins defense that is usually stingy against tight ends.

If he can shred a defense that's generally sound against his position, he'll have an absolute field day against the New York Jets. New York hasn't been good against opposing tight ends this season, allowing 12 touchdowns and seven double-digit fantasy performances to the position.

Gronkowski caught five passes for 68 yards the last time he faced the Jets, but fantasy owners should expect that number to increase this time around, as New England's offense is on a roll.

Sleeper: Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Remember Allen? He's that tight end who scored a touchdown in seven of his first nine contests this season before missing time due to injury. He missed three games and then had a very limited role in Week 14 against Cleveland. However, now healthy, he returned to his old ways, scoring a touchdown against the Texans Sunday.

Allen's next contest is against a Dallas Cowboys team that has allowed 10 touchdowns this season to opposing tight ends. That's a very friendly matchup for a player who relies heavily on scores to produce the bulk of his fantasy points.

Beware: Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns

It looks like Cameron has been phased out of Cleveland's offensive scheme. This tight end has missed plenty of time this season due to nagging injuries, and despite regaining his health, he was targeted just once on Sunday against Cincinnati. When Jim Dray gets two more targets than Cameron, it's time to keep the tight end on your bench.

Rank	Team	Opponent	Projected Points
1	Buffalo Bills	at Oakland Raiders	14
2	Baltimore Ravens	at Houston Texans	13
3	Seattle Seahawks	at Arizona Cardinals	12
4	Philadelphia Eagles	at Washington Redskins	11
5	St. Louis Rams	vs. New York Giants	10
6	Tennessee Titans	at Jacksonville Jaguars	10
7	New England Patriots	at New York Jets	10
8	Detroit Lions	at Chicago Bears	9
9	Green Bay Packers	at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8
10	New York Giants	at St. Louis Rams	7
11	Jacksonville Jaguars	vs. Tennessee Titans	7
12	Carolina Panthers	vs. Cleveland Browns	6
13	San Francisco 49ers	vs. San Diego Chargers	6
14	Arizona Cardinals	vs. Seattle Seahawks	5
15	Cleveland Browns	at Carolina Panthers	5

Top Dog: Buffalo Bills

The Bills have been phenomenal against the league's best quarterbacks of late, holding both Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers to less than 200 passing yards and keeping them out of the end zone. It should be safe to say Buffalo will be able to duplicate that feat against Derek Carr and a Raiders offense that can't get out of its own way.

Sleeper: Tennessee Titans

James Kenney/Associated Press

Don't be afraid to roll with the Titans if you don't have many options in Week 16. While Tennessee hasn't been the model of a stout defense this season, it did post 12 fantasy points the last time it played the Jacksonville Jaguars. With that rematch next on the slate and Jacksonville's offense in disarray, we could see a repeat of that performance.

Beware: Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints

The last time these teams faced off, they combined for 71 points and both defenses came away with negative fantasy points. Stay far, far away from both of these squads in Week 16.

Rank	Player	Projected Points
1	Adam Vinatieri, IND	14
2	Mason Crosby, GB	13
3	Cody Parkey, PHI	12
4	Dan Bailey, DAL	12
5	Connor Barth, DEN	11
6	Shaun Suisham, PIT	11
7	Matt Prater, DET	10
8	Caleb Sturgia, MIA	9
9	Stephen Gostkowski, NE	9
10	Ryan Succop, TEN	9
11	Graham Gano, CAR	8
12	Steven Hauschka, SEA	8
13	Nick Novak, SD	8
14	Justin Tucker, BAL	7
15	Matt Bryant, ATL	7

Top Dog: Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis Colts

Vinatieri hasn't had many opportunities lately, but that is likely to change in Week 16 against a Cowboys team that should engage in a shootout with Andrew Luck and Co.

Sleeper: Ryan Succop, Tennessee Titans

Start him for the same reason you're starting the Titans defense: He's playing the Jaguars.

Beware: Chandler Catanzaro, Arizona Cardinals

Catanzaro delighted fantasy owners with four field goals in Week 15, but he isn't likely to get in range often in Week 16 with Lindley at the helm against the Seahawks.

Waiver-Wire Advice

The list below is comprised of players owned in less than 50 percent of ESPN.com standard-scoring leagues and could improve the depth of your roster.

Player	Pos.	Team	Ownership
Eli Manning	QB	New York Giants	41.2%
Kerwynn Williams	RB	Arizona Cardinals	28.4%
Doug Martin	RB	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	45.1%
Latavius Murray	RB	Oakland Raiders	36.9%
Andre Williams	RB	New York Giants	35.3%
Charles Johnson	WR	Minnesota Vikings	17.4%
Stedman Bailey	WR	St. Louis Rams	21.9%
Dwayne Allen	TE	Indianapolis Colts	44.9%
Owen Daniels	TE	Baltimore Ravens	17.9%

Championship Advice: Trust Your Veterans

Throughout the entire season, every fantasy owner has been faced with the the decision of whether to go with an unproven guy that has plenty of upside or a steady veteran who has't lit up scoreboards. Well, the decision should be similar to one many coaches make when staring at a 4th-and-goal from the 3-yard line: Take the points.

The last thing you want to do in your championship game is starting a boom-or-bust option over a player has maintained a steady average during the year. Sure, it may not be the flashy play, but it's the smart one. Getting to the championship game is all about limiting foolish mistakes during the season, and winning your league's title is done in the same manner.

Trust your proven players and take the points.

Keeper Advice: Latavius Murray is the Future

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

Murray is the Raiders' best option out of the backfield, and he has two more weeks to prove he's worth keeping in a starting role heading into next season. Oakland's offense is extremely young, but they are talented and will get better with time. Murray will benefit. 

The running back is still available in most leagues, and fantasy owners should consider snatching him up now and stashing him for next season. Even if you're not entirely confident he'll continue to produce in Oakland, chances are one of your league's owners does, and he may be looking to make a trade.

With games against the stout run defenses of Buffalo and Denver remaining, don't get discouraged if Murray doesn't post gaudy numbers. Keep him stashed and reap the benefits in the future.

Player	Pos.	Team	Ownership
Colin Kaepernick	QB	San Francisco 49ers	71.2%
Ryan Tannehill	QB	Miami Dolphins	54.0%
Trent Richardson	RB	Indianapolis Colts	65.9%
Shane Vereen	RB	New England Patriots	65.1%
Ryan Mathews	RB	San Diego Chargers	71.6%
Reggie Wayne	WR	Indianapolis Colts	57.7%
Michael Crabtree	WR	San Francisco 49ers	67.0%
Mohamed Sanu	WR	Cincinnati Bengals	58.3%

Top Drop of the Week: Trent Richardson, RB, Indianapolis Colts

David Richard/Associated Press

The Colts have basically given up on Richardson, and so should you. This plodding veteran hasn't been remotely good despite spending plenty of time in the Indianapolis offense. After averaging 2.9 yards per carry with the team last season, he's upped his total to a whopping 3.3 yards per clip this year. That's not much to write home about.

Making matters worse for the ball-carrier, he isn't just losing touches to third-string running back Daniel Herron, he's actually receiving fewer carries. In Week 15 against Houston, Herron carried 11 times to Richardson's nine. While Herron averaged 5.5 yards per rush, Richardson could only muster 3.6.

There are plenty of running backs available in this year's draft, and after two futile seasons with the Colts, expect the team to go in a different direction from Richardson. At this point, the ball-carrier is simply collecting dust on your bench.

All fantasy football statistics courtesy of ESPN.com standard-scoring leagues and current as of Dec. 15 at 12:30 a.m. ET.