Fantasy Football 2014: 5 Week 15 Matchups Owners Should Avoid

Owners still alive in the 2014 fantasy football playoffs should be wary of potential season-ending matchups on the radar in Week 15. This isn’t to say the players listed below should be benched outright, but it would be wise to start a high-upside guy at another position to potentially offset the losses.

Beware that if you’re a Rob Gronkowski, Russell Wilson, Frank Gore or Anquan Boldin owner, it could be a heartbreaking week.

Note: Players starting in less than 40 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues were not considered.

Honorable Mention

USA TODAY Sports

Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans

Fleener is starting in 52 percent of ESPN leagues thanks to an 11.6 points-per-game average while Dwayne Allen struggled with an ankle injury over the past five weeks. Allen is fully healed and ready to steal targets, plus Houston ranks fourth in tight end points allowed (4.8 PPG).

There probably aren’t better options on the waiver wire in a thin 2014 tight end market, so just grit your teeth and hope for the best as you trot Fleener out in your starting lineup.

Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

Thomas owners suffered for three weeks while he rehabbed a bum ankle, only to watch him stand on the sidelines unused in Week 14. San Diego boasts the ninth-ranked defense in tight end points allowed (5.3 PPG), but ranks 12th vs. running backs (14.8 PPG).

Denver might go with a run-heavy game plan yet again, to manage the clock and keep Philip Rivers off the field. Thomas doesn’t figure much into those plans, grading nine spots below Virgil Green in run blocking, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Thomas owners might want to continue starting whoever they used as his injury replacement until he re-establishes himself in the Broncos offense.

Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The 31-year-old turned in a steady 2014 campaign, ranked 18th in fantasy scoring among running backs (8.1 PPG).

The problem is Jackson is touchdown dependent, topping 100 rushing yards just once this season. He averages 11.7 PPG when he scores, but plummets to 4.6 PPG when he doesn’t.

Pittsburgh is decent against the run—ranked ninth in rushing yards allowed, according to Pro-Football-Reference. Conversely, the Steelers are a sieve against the pass—ranked 22nd.

Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and the rest of the Falcons passing game combusted over the last two weeks for 736 yards and six touchdowns combined.

That probably means Atlanta will take to the skies against Pittsburgh, leaving Jackson owners to scavenge among the crumbs.

5. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

USA TODAY Sports

Hopkins finally realized his fantasy potential with a 238-yard, two-touchdown explosion in Week 13. Unfortunately Ryan Fitzpatrick’s inconsistent play will prevent a follow-up performance this season.

The Colts—ranked 21st in passing yards against—are vulnerable to the pass, which would be a positive sign if Andre Johnson wasn’t questionable with a concussion.

"

O'Brien: WR Andre Johnson still day-to-day w/concussion. Won't know if he can play until Sunday right before the game.

— Drew Dougherty (@DoughertyDrew) December 11, 2014

"

Without Johnson, Indianapolis can roll coverage to Hopkins’ side and load the box against Arian Foster and Alfred Blue. Then it’s up to Fitzpatrick to beat this scheme.

Do you really want to take that chance with your championship aspirations on the line?

4. Rashad Jennings, New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins

Elsa/Getty Images

Two forces are at work against Jennings in Week 15: an inept Redskins pass defense and Andre Williams’ brilliant 131-yard, one-touchdown performance in Week 14.

Washington is brutal against the pass in fantasy terms, ranking dead last in quarterback points allowed (20.0 PPG). Meanwhile, their run defense is surprisingly stout—ranked fourth in running back points allowed (12.3 PPG). That defensive dichotomy is probably less a statement about Washington’s strengths and weaknesses, as it is a revelation of opponents’ game plans against them.

Why bother running when you can torch this team through the air?

Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. are must-starts in this matchup.

Jennings starts Week 15 fully recovered from the ankle injury that limited him last week.

"

Tom Coughlin said RB Rashad Jennings, who is not on the injury report, should be able to carry more of a full load this week.

— Ralph Vacchiano (@RVacchianoNYDN) December 10, 2014

"

The problem is gambling on how much Williams will eat into that workload.

Start Jennings with plenty of trepidation, considering any viable alternatives on your bench.

3. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

What?! The league’s No. 1 tight end is matchup-proof, right?

Wrong.

Gronkowski is touchdown dependent, and the league’s No. 1 defense in tight end points against (4.2 PPG) hasn’t surrendered a tight end score since Week 6.

Am I really advocating benching Gronk?

Of course not. He’s gained at least 68 receiving yards in each game since Week 4, a 6.8-PPG rate if you take away the six touchdowns scored during that frame. The yards alone rank him ahead of all but six tight ends in fantasy scoring.

What you should do is plug in a high-risk/high-reward player or two at other positions to offset the potential losses if Miami keeps Gronkowski away from pay dirt.

2. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Wilson is starting in 54.6 percent of ESPN leagues this week, ranked seventh among quarterbacks. He’s starting ahead of Jay Cutler (47.0), Matt Ryan (45.7), Philip Rivers (39.7) and Tony Romo (38.1), who all enjoy favorable matchups this week.

Wilson scored only 16 points in Week 13’s dominating win over San Francisco—a full four points below his 20-PPG average.

Seattle seems content to reign in Wilson’s rushing and passing in order to demoralize their NFC West foes recently, meaning Marshawn Lynch should eat up a ton of clock while the defense stifles the impotent 49ers offense.

Check out your QB2’s opponent before going with Wilson, in case recent history repeats.

1. Frank Gore and Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Disclaimer: I fully admit Gore (44.3) and Boldin’s (44.1) starting percentages could be completely inaccurate due to dormant leagues and eliminated teams.

That said, if you’re still alive in the playoffs and starting anyone in the 49ers offense: Bench them now!

Seattle rediscovered their stifling ways, rising to a No. 2 ranking in overall defense and a top-10 grade from PFF.

Meanwhile, San Francisco ranks 26th in overall offense, graded 14th by PFF. Don’t let that average grade from PFF deceive you, as the 49ers are in the red, which is mediocre at best.

Seattle crushed San Francisco in the 49ers’ house on Thanksgiving Day. The 12th man will be rabid in anticipation of an encore.

Expect a defensive struggle with little to no fantasy value attributable to any 49er.

To reiterate, this list should serve as a guide to potential downside for some Week 15 starters. Owners shouldn’t hastily bench these players if there aren’t better options available. One strategy is to start one or two high-upside players to offset depleted performances if an obvious lineup swap is not available.

Good luck, as always.

Starting percentages are based on ESPN fantasy leagues. Fantasy scoring and ranking provided by ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.