What Each Top 25 Team Should Be Worried About so Far in 2014-15
It may seem like it in the early going, but life is far from perfect for the nation’s best college basketball teams.
For every impressive showing fans have seen from the likes of Kentucky and Duke this year, there is something to worry about that could derail a national title run. In a single-elimination tournament come March, all it takes is one off-game to end the championship dreams of these squads.
With that in mind, here is a look at one thing each Top 25 team should be worried about thus far. The Associated Press Top 25, as of Thursday, Dec. 11, was used to compile this list.
All statistics are as of the completion of Wednesday night's games. Ken Pomeroy's numbers can be found here.
25. Notre Dame
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Rebounding
Notre Dame may be 9-1 with a win over Michigan State on its resume, but it will be hard to maintain that success if it continues to struggle on the glass.
In fact, the Irish were out-rebounded in that game against the Spartans to the tune of 43-26, and Michigan State grabbed as many offensive rebounds (18) as Notre Dame had defensive ones. When the Fighting Irish start playing better opponents in the ACC, that is going to be a serious problem.
Notre Dame is 180th in the nation in rebounds per game thus far despite a rather weak nonconference slate.
24. St. John’s
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Efficient Scoring
St. John’s is a lackluster No. 90 in Pomeroy’s offensive rankings even though it has three players (D’Angelo Harrison, Rysheed Jordan and Phil Greene IV) scoring better than 12 points per game. The reason for that is the shooting percentages from those three players.
Harrison, Jordan and Greene are all shooting less than 42.8 percent from the field, and Harrison’s 36 percent mark from three-point range is the best of the trio. Jordan is only shooting 26.1 percent from deep.
While all three are capable scorers who will lead the Red Storm to a possible NCAA tournament spot, when the three players who are taking the most shots on the team aren’t hitting them at an efficient clip, it can hold the offense back.
23. Northern Iowa
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Pace of Play
Northern Iowa, deliberately or not, has slowed its pace down this season, and it has resulted in nine straight wins to start the year, including victories over Virginia Tech and Northwestern from power conferences.
The fact that the Panthers are No. 26 in Pomeroy’s offensive rankings despite being 192nd in scoring is a testament to the efficient and slow brand of basketball they play.
However, the goal for Northern Iowa is to make some noise in the NCAA tournament, and that could be difficult if it meets a faster and more athletic team in the round of 64. If the Panthers are not adaptable enough in that hypothetical matchup, it could be a quick postseason exit.
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22. West Virginia
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Shooting
West Virginia is ranked largely because it knocked off the defending champion Connecticut Huskies as part of its 8-1 start, but the shooting numbers have been less than kind.
The Mountaineers are shooting 41 percent from the field, which is 267th in the country, and 29.6 percent from three-point range. Juwan Staten, who was named the Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year, is only shooting 31 percent from deep and 41 percent from the field.
West Virginia needs to shoot better if it hopes to contend for a Big 12 title.
21. North Carolina
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Consistency
North Carolina’s inconsistent play was ultimately its undoing last season. It finished strongly, but the early struggles cost it a favorable seed in the NCAA tournament.
Fans have already seen some early struggles this season with losses to Iowa and Butler and wins over UCLA and Florida. Some would suggest the Tar Heels are playing to their level of competition, which may be a good thing before their marquee showdown with Kentucky.
Of course, if they don’t put together some more consistent results, another mediocre NCAA tournament seed will be the product.
20. Miami
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Comfort Level on the Floor
Miami had nine incoming freshmen or transfers this season, which is a test for any team’s chemistry. Yes, the Hurricanes have impressed with wins over Florida and Illinois, but there are still some question marks around those two opponents that have to be answered.
Miami’s ultimate resolve with so many new faces won’t truly be tested until the grueling ACC schedule begins.
Until the Hurricanes prove they can play through adversity with one another, the comfort level on the floor with so many new faces will be a concern.
19. Maryland
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Health
Dez Wells is one of the most underrated players in the entire country, but he is currently out with a fractured wrist. Evan Smotrycz is also dealing with a bothersome foot injury.
While both players should be back by Big Ten play (Smotrycz before Wells), there is reason to be concerned about any lingering rust or soreness with the injuries. Unless Wells in particular is 100 percent or close to it, Maryland is going to struggle to knock off some of the elite teams in the Big Ten.
18. San Diego State
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Offense
The raw offensive statistics are simply not pretty when it comes to San Diego State.
The Aztecs are No. 140 in Pomeroy’s offensive rankings, 279th in points per game, 287th in field-goal percentage and 341st in assists per game. Even with San Diego State’s shutdown defense, those numbers are going to get the Aztecs eliminated early in March.
Never was that clearer than in a 49-36 loss to Washington back on Dec. 7.
Xavier Thames’ presence in the lineup from a season ago has been dearly missed. There is just nobody to bail the offense out when a clutch shot is needed.
17. Washington
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Offense
Anyone who watched that aforementioned Washington win over San Diego State understands why offense is also a concern for the Huskies.
Yes, they won the game against an elite defense, but a 49-36 victory that featured ugly offensive play and poor shooting doesn’t exactly inspire visions of a national championship or Final Four run in the near future.
Washington is 177th in the nation in field-goal percentage, which needs to improve before Pac-12 play begins.
16. Oklahoma
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Turnovers
Oklahoma is off to a solid 5-2 start with a win over UCLA, but its issue with turnovers is going to be a major problem this season when Big 12 play heats up.
The Sooners are coughing the ball up 15 times per night, which completely stagnates the offense and takes away any rhythm the team can get on that side of the ball. Never was it clearer how much the ball control needs to improve than during the matchup with Wisconsin—Oklahoma turned it over a ridiculous 21 times in a blowout loss.
15. Butler
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Rim Protection
Butler put itself on the college basketball map with an upset win over North Carolina, but it turned right around and lost to Oklahoma the next time out.
The Bulldogs have been excellent on defense overall (12th in the nation in points allowed per game and Pomeroy’s defensive rankings), but there is one concern on that end of the floor. Nobody on the roster is taller than 6’9,” and rim protection has been an issue as a result.
The Bulldogs are 242nd in the nation in blocks per game and 179th in defensive rebounds per game, which are indicative of the rim protection on the roster. Thus far, they are not promising stats for Butler.
14. Iowa State
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Bryce Dejean-Jones’ Status
Bryce Dejean-Jones was arrested on three charges Wednesday and was suspended for one game.
While a one-game suspension isn’t necessarily a big deal in the bigger picture of the season and the team’s tournament hopes, Dejean-Jones is one of Iowa State’s top players and a critical cog in the Cyclones’ offensive attack.
He is likely on a short leash after this latest off-court setback, which should have fans concerned about his status moving forward. Another strike could put his status for the tournament and Big 12 play in jeopardy.
13. Utah
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Pressure Defense
The Utah Utes have turned in one of the most impressive early-season starts of any team in college basketball and looked tournament-ready when it upset Wichita State. Even the one loss was by a respectable four points at San Diego State.
However, the Utes have only registered 5.6 steals per game in the early going, which is 258th in the nation. Utah has been excellent on both ends of the floor, but it isn’t hounding opponents into turnovers yet.
If that eventually comes, the Utes could challenge for second place in the Pac-12 behind Arizona.
12. Ohio State
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Interior Offense
Ohio State has one of the most dynamic backcourts in the Big Ten with D’Angelo Russell and Shannon Scott, but there is nothing inside to feel great about on the offensive end if you are a Buckeyes fan.
Amir Williams has only played 17.3 minutes per game, so he hasn’t had much of a chance to establish any consistency, and Anthony Lee is only averaging 13.5 minutes and 5.1 points. Trey McDonald is more of an extra body in case of foul trouble.
The Buckeyes are going to need more production from their big men before grueling Big Ten play begins.
11. Wichita State
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Offensive Depth
Wichita State has four surefire contributors on the offensive side with Ron Baker, Fred VanVleet, Darius Carter and Tekele Cotton.
All four are averaging in double figures in the scoring department, and Baker has been particularly impressive at 18.4 points per night. VanVleet is always in control of the game from the point guard spot as well.
However, there is a significant drop-off in scoring after those four guys; Evan Wessel is next on the team at 4.7 points per night. Over the course of a long season, the Shockers may need some more offense from the role players.
10. Kansas
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Offense
The raw offensive numbers just don’t paint a pretty picture for Kansas, even if they are still somewhat influenced by the one terrible game against Kentucky.
The Jayhawks are 147th in the league in points per game, 225th in assists per game and 257th in field-goal percentage and have struggled to get consistent open looks on a nightly basis against the notable teams they have played.
Fortunately, the defense has done enough in wins over Florida, Georgetown and Michigan State, but a Final Four is out of the question until the shooting numbers look better.
9. Gonzaga
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Level of Competition
This isn’t fair to this season’s Gonzaga team, but the title of this piece is one thing to worry about for each squad. Until the Bulldogs finally reach their first Final Four in program history, the level of competition leading up to the tournament is a concern.
The West Coast Conference simply doesn’t prepare the dominant Bulldogs for the suffocating pressure of the one-and-done style of the NCAA tournament against elite competition. The overtime loss to Arizona will help the team grow, but there isn’t much substance outside of that in the nonleague slate.
That is unfortunate because there isn’t much substance in the conference schedule.
8. Texas
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Scoring Against Solid Competition
Texas has not had much trouble scoring against the cupcakes on its schedule, but the same cannot be said after its games against notable competition.
The Longhorns beat Connecticut by a single point, but they only scored 55 points in the process. Things got worse against Kentucky, when Texas only scored 51 points in a loss. Granted, everyone struggles to score against the Wildcats’ NBA-level length, but the pattern is concerning.
Overall, Texas is 151st in the nation in points per game and 51st in Pomeroy’s offensive rankings. Neither of those numbers screams national contender.
7. Villanova
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Shot Selection
Thus far, Villanova has not impressed with its perimeter shooting, yet it continues to chuck up long balls at an alarming rate.
In fact, the Wildcats are only shooting 33.8 percent from downtown as a team, but 195 of their 508 field-goal attempts have come from behind the three-point line. To make matters worse, Darrun Hilliard III has shot a team-high 43 three-pointers and is only hitting 27.9 percent of them, while Ryan Arcidiacono has attempted 30 and is only sinking 20 percent of his tries.
The right people have to shoot more from deep if the Wildcats are going to continue to rely on the three.
6. Virginia
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Controlling the Tempo
Virginia makes no secret of its desire to slow the game down and play in the 60s or 70s. The game plan often makes the opponent uncomfortable and takes it out of its comfort zone by virtually taking the air out of the ball.
However, Cavaliers fans have to be worried about some of the ACC point guards on the schedule like Tyus Jones and Marcus Paige, who can force their own tempo on Virginia. The question then would be how the Cavaliers play outside of their comfort zone in a fast-paced game.
The answer will ultimately determine Virginia's position in the ACC standings.
5. Wisconsin
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Perimeter Defending
Wisconsin doesn’t really have any distinct weaknesses that immediately jump out, so it is worth looking at its one loss to Duke for something to worry about.
The Badgers allowed the Blue Devils to shoot 7-of-12 from three-point range, all while Tyus Jones completely controlled the tempo of the game. Wisconsin was playing in front of a rowdy Kohl Center crowd but never once made the freshman point guard feel uncomfortable.
While that is a testament to Jones’ poise and maturity, the overall perimeter defense in that game was lackluster at best for the Badgers.
4. Louisville
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Offense
This concern rings a bit more hollow after Louisville torched Indiana for 94 points, but that says more about the Hoosiers’ paper-mache defense than anything else.
The Cardinals feature arguably the best defense in the country, but the offense is a couple of steps behind. A prolonged shooting slump almost allowed Ohio State to overcome a 19-point deficit against Rick Pitino’s squad, while the Cardinals also only scored 45 points against Cleveland State.
The Cardinals should ultimately be fine on that end of the floor, but it is something to be worried about compared to their suffocating defense.
3. Arizona
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Rebounding
Arizona is loaded with athleticism, plays shutdown defense and can run up and down the court with any opponent. It is shooting a solid 37 percent from three-point range as a team and has a number of players who can slash to the rim both with and without the ball.
However, if there is one concern, it is rebounding.
The Wildcats are 170th in the country in total rebounds per game and don’t feature a single player averaging better than 6.7 boards per game. While a balanced rebounding attack is certainly not a problem, the team simply needs to grab more of them.
That may be the only thing standing in the way of a national title.
2. Duke
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Defense
Duke fans don’t want to hear this after their team struggled so mightily on the defensive end a season ago, but something has to be chosen as an area of concern.
For what it’s worth, the Blue Devils are playing much better defense than they did in 2013-14, especially because of Justise Winslow on the perimeter and Jahlil Okafor’s rim protection down low.
However, Duke is still a mere 67th in the country in points allowed per game and checks in at No. 17 in Pomeroy’s defensive rankings. A top-20 spot is not really anything too concerning, but the corresponding offense is No. 1.
If the Blue Devils can even slightly improve their defense, they will be terrifying.
1. Kentucky
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Establishing a Rhythm
Kentucky does not have a weakness.
That is what happens when there is an NBA team on the floor in the college game. The Wildcats are first in Pomeroy’s defensive rankings and fourth in the offensive rankings, which is a testament to the talent and balance on both ends.
If there is even the slightest thing to worry about, it is the players’ ability to establish a rhythm in John Calipari’s five-man substitution method. Nobody is on the floor for an extended period of time, which makes it difficult to get into the flow of a game.
That could at least partially explain the 56-point performance against Columbia and 58-point performance against Providence.
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