Weak 2015 NFL Draft Class Makes Veteran QB Carousel More Important Than Ever

As NFL teams come down the homestretch, many are riding the wrong horse.

Now, more than ever, the NFL is a quarterback's league; many otherwise-strong teams are falling out of the playoff race because they don't have a stud under center. Between drafted projects who've failed to develop, veteran free agents who never fit in, emergency injury replacements and former franchise guys whose best football is behind them, there are plenty of passers who'll be looking for work this spring—and many teams looking for help.

If ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper, Jr. is right, there won't be any solutions to be found in this year's draft:

Much like the 2013 and 2012 drafts, it seems, the best quarterback prospects may not be worthy of the very top picks—teams that have the biggest needs at quarterback might not be picking that high, anyway. Playoff contenders who need quarterback help will largely be coveting their neighbors' rides.

The quarterback carousel will be taking a few extra spins this year, and it might matter more than ever.

As we go into a Week 15 slate full of critical, season-deciding matchups, the film these quarterbacks put out will have a huge impact on where (or if) they're playing in 2015. Whether auditioning for the jobs they have, or the jobs they'll be trying to land in March, their performance this week will be crucial.

The Rejects

First, let's look at the quarterbacks who've already made their case—and likely won't be getting any more meaningful playing time this season. They've started multiple games, but they're on the bench now (due to injury or performance), and some of their teams are already out of contention:

Credit: Ty Schalter/Bleacher Report

Each quarterback on this chart is represented by a column; each rate stat is a colored line. The bold blue line is Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, a simple, solid one-number measurement of quarterback effectiveness.

The green line is touchdown rate, red-line interception rate, brown-line sack rate and orange line NFL passer efficiency rating.

Oddly, the player with the worst odds of making it back on the field is the player with the best stats: Kirk Cousins. Long tabbed as the insurance policy to Robert Griffin III, Cousins flashed some real potential. He turned in three strong games with a passer efficiency rating over 100, and four games that were, well, not strong.

When Cousins got benched, he got busted all the way down to third string. Both he and Griffin seem likely to seek their fortunes elsewhere.

Griffin, like Cousins, has flashed some potential this season. His interception rate (2.4 percent) is the lowest of this group, and his completion rate (69.9 percent) is the highest. That helps boost his ANY/A to just below Cousins'.

However, Griffin's outrageous sack rate is literally off the charts (14.6), and he threw just two touchdowns in 123 attempts. For all his physical talent, his degraded mechanics and poor field-reading skills rendered him all but useless to Washington in 2014. Both quarterbacks are young enough that they'll get a chance to backup somebody, somewhere.

Through the first nine weeks of the season, Brian Hoyer was making a real case for his viability as a long-term starter. Since then, he's thrown just one touchdown against eight interceptions. His season-long stats, never eye-popping, are now unremarkable.

With mediocre efficiency stats (PER, ANY/A), he needs to make plays and avoid mistakes. His interception rate (2.8 percent) is now just a little higher than his touchdown rate (2.6 percent), though, so his case is not strong. At age 28, he should be looking for a secure No. 2 gig behind a surefire starter.

One of the weirdest cases is Nick Foles. He put up incredible, nearly magical numbers in 2013, but in 2014 defenses had a much better idea of how to defend Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly's offense. Foles' limitations as a passer became obvious.

That said, he's got the best touchdown-to-interception ratio of the group, as well as the lowest sack rate. His middling completion rate (59.8 percent) and lack of deep balls hurt his efficiency stats, though, and the success of backup Mark Sanchez makes it an open question if Foles can even play at a competent level outside Philadelphia.

Josh McCown also exists. His sky-high sack and interception rate, combined with low completion and touchdown rates, make for some brutal efficiency numbers.

At McCown's age (35), he's not likely to get another bite at the apple. Besides, his brutal 2014 numbers closely match his pre-2013 career averages. This is what he is. Absent head coach Lovie Smith keeping him around for old times' sake, it's hard to imagine any NFL team thinks he's a viable option in 2015.

The Journeymen

Let's take a look at the quarterbacks who'll be starting games this weekend, and likely for the rest of the season—yet whose contract status or performance level make them likely to be available this offseason. These are the players who'll have a real opportunity to show what they can do under pressure, this weekend and beyond:

Credit: Ty Schalter/Bleacher Report

Far ahead of the pack is Ryan Fitzpatrick, whose monster six-touchdown performance in Week 13 boosted his season stats quite a bit. Not only is his 7.15 ANY/A the top of this class, it's the sixth-best mark in the NFL this season (one slot behind Tom Brady). His eighth-best touchdown rate (5.6 percent) is more than double his pretty-high interception rate (2.6 percent), in line with his career production.

It's hard to believe the NFL's ninth-rated passer was benched at one point this season, but he was. Fitzpatrick briefly sat in favor of youngster Ryan Mallett, but an injury to Mallett gave Fitzpatrick another chance to prove his worth. Due $3.875 million in 2015, per Spotrac.com, none of it guaranteed, the Texans could easily let Fitzpatrick go.

Unless they're convinced Mallett can step in and play significantly better, though, doing so might backfire.

The next crop of veteran starters are a perfect example of why one number can't ever capture everything about a player's performance.

Drew Stanton*, Shaun Hill* and Mark Sanchez have practically identical ANY/A figures at 6.34, 6.34 and 6.33 respectively. Yet, they have wildly different performance profiles. Stanton has the lowest completion rate and touchdown rate in the group, Hill the highest sack rate, and Sanchez the second-highest interception rate.

Stanton's deep-ball passing picks up yards in chunks, but despite his aggression he rarely throws picks. Stanton's athleticism also makes him hard to bring down; his 4.3 percent sack rate is the lowest in the group (11th best in the NFL). Hill is one of three quarterbacks in this group who boasts a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but Hill also has a high (7.6 percent) sack rate. Sanchez takes fewer sacks than Hill, but completes passes more often (and more often for scores).

Let's not forget Kyle Orton. After subbing in for disappointing sophomore EJ Manuel, Orton immediately gave the Bills offense a lift. With the eighth-lowest interception rate in the NFL, and hearty 64.7 percent completion rate, his effectiveness and lack of mistakes keeps the Bills in games. Yet, his relatively high sack rate (7.0 percent) and low-ish raw average yards per attempt (6.8) keeps his ANY/A second-lowest of this group.

All four quarterbacks are proving they're capable enough to win with good coaching and a good team around them. The question is, will any get a better opportunity anywhere else? Hill and Sanchez will be unrestricted free agents at the end of the season; Stanton and Orton both have one year left on their deal (and amortized signing-bonus money coming due against the cap).

Fitzpatrick, Hill and Orton all boast NFL passer efficiency ratings very near or over 90. They should be strong contenders to start somewhere in 2015. Sanchez's 88.0 is right on their heels—but as with Foles, there are real doubts he'll be able to replicate that outside of Philadelphia.

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Stanton's case is a little iffier; his inability to even approach a 60 percent completion rate limits his value in most offenses. He'll need to show quicker, more accurate shallow- and intermediate-route passing to be viewed as a potential starter. Pending final prognosis on the injury he suffered against the St. Louis Rams, he might not get that chance.

All five (save, possibly, Stanton) have a golden opportunity to work on their weaknesses and showcase their strengths down the stretch.

Then, there's Geno Smith.

Smith's stats are abominable. He has the second-lowest completion rate of the group, the second-highest sack rate, the lowest touchdown rate and by far the highest interception rate. He's tied with Blake Bortles for the lowest ANY/A of any qualifying NFL quarterback.

Like Griffin, Smith isn't playing at an NFL level right now. Yet, like Griffin, Smith's age (24) and draft status—not to mention, general dumpster-fireness of his New York Jets—should earn him a chance to compete somewhere in 2015.

The Suitors

So, where are the potential landing spots?  The easy answer: Everywhere these players are about to leave.

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

The Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, Philadelphia Eagles, and St. Louis Rams will all be on the lookout for either a solid starter or top-notch backup. All of these teams have playoff-caliber rosters—and if they miss the playoffs, will be for lack of quality quarterback play.

The New York Jets, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington are all pretty far away from contending, but all have intractable quarterback situations with at least one signal-caller sure to leave. It wouldn't take much of an upgrade to make a big difference in any of those cities.

Then, there are the shocking shoppers. There are quite a few teams with established, big-name starters who could be looking for a strong backup, or even a replacement starter.

The San Francisco 49ers are almost surely making a coaching change; it's hard to imagine whichever coach takes over keeps both Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert as his top two quarterbacks.

Same goes for the New York Giants, of whose passing-game ills new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo wasn't entirely able to cure. It could be the last year for both head coach Tom Coughlin and quarterback Eli Manning.

In New Orleans, Drew Brees has had a rough year. However, per NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, the Saints are looking to draft Brees' heir apparent, not sign a veteran to push him.

The Cincinnati Bengals have had one of the most talented rosters in the NFL for the last few years. Quarterback Andy Dalton has repeatedly failed them in big games—especially playoff games. If he wilts down the stretch, or bombs them out of the playoffs again, even his big new contract might not secure his job. Per Spotrac.com, if Dalton's cut before he triggers his $4 million 2015 roster bonus, it'd help offset the $9.6 million in accelerated cap hit.

No matter which teams decides to make a change under center, or how many quarterbacks decide to go job-hopping, there are plenty of serious contenders just a few plays away from taking the next step, and plenty of pretenders a few plays away from contention.

As the 2014 season draws to a dramatic close, keep an eye on these quarterbacks with one foot out the door—many talented NFL teams will be doing the same.

Ty Schalter is a Bleacher Report National NFL Lead Writer, and member of the Pro Football Writers of America. All stats sourced at Pro Football Reference, except where otherwise noted.

*Drew Stanton and Shaun Hill's stats were compiled prior to their Week 15 Thursday Night Football contest.