Cotton Bowl 2015: Full Preview and Predictions for Michigan State vs. Baylor

Baylor and Michigan State may not enjoy how they were treated by the selection committee, but it makes for an undeniably alluring Cotton Bowl. 

The Bears beat No. 9 Kansas State on Saturday 38-27, securing an 11-1 finish and a tie with TCU atop the Big 12. With a win over the Horned Frogs, Art Briles' team felt it had done enough to crack the inaugural College Football Playoff, but the committee simply awarded the de facto conference champs as first runner-up.

Briles, via BaylorBears.com, talked about the disappointment: 

"

I hate it for the Big 12. I think the Big 12 is a great conference. I don't think there is any doubt that it is certainly one of the stronger leagues in America. I think the waters got muddied a couple of weeks ago -saying we would be presented as co-champions. I think that hurt the cause for both of us quite honestly.

"

As for the Spartans, they didn't even need to play to get done in by the committee. Despite a bye, they were flip-flopped with Mississippi State, who were also off for the week. 

CBS Sports' Jon Solomon put it simply:

The national championship may not be on the line, but both teams are unequivocally going to be out to make a statement. 

Date	Time (ET)	Location	TV	Stream	Spread
Thursday, Jan. 1	12:30 p.m.	AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX	ESPN	WatchESPN	Baylor (-1.5)

Everyone will look to the Rose Bowl as the quarterback matchup to watch (and understandably so, with Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston), but this one isn't far behind. 

Bryce Petty and Connor Cook will both be playing on Sundays in the future, and they aren't too bad on Saturdays, either.

Petty has completed 62.1 percent of his throws for 3,305 yards, 26 touchdowns and six interceptions. It has actually been a down year compared to his ridiculous junior campaign, but he's still one of the best playmakers in the country, and as he showcased against Kansas State, he thrives in the spotlight. 

As ESPN Stats & Info noted, Baylor's offense, which is first in the country in points (46.9) and yards per game (568.7), can strike in a hurry:

Cook has proven capable of keeping up, though. On the season, he has 2,900 yards (with a slightly better yards-per-attempt average than Petty), 22 touchdowns and six interceptions. Against a Bears defense that is stout against the run but allowing 7.6 yards per pass (101st in the country), the junior will be airing it out a lot. 

Defensively, Michigan State boasts better numbers overall (4.7 yards per play allowed vs. Baylor's 5.1, per TeamRankings.com), but the difference in style of play from each conference must be considered. When the Spartans have gone up against teams with Baylor's kind of offensive talent, they have given up 46 (at Oregon in September) and 49 points (versus Ohio State in November). 

Football Outsiders, which factors in schedule strength and other variables, ranks Baylor 23rd in the nation in defense, while Michigan State is down at No. 43.

All of this is a way of saying this game is going to turn into a scintillating shootout. No matter who ends up on top, it's safe to say this will be one of the most entertaining contests of the bowl season. 

This may be a last-team-with-the-ball-wins sort of thing. Ultimately, though, Baylor's offense will make just a few more plays in the end. 

Prediction: Baylor 45, Michigan State 42