How Did B/R Do?: Reviewing 2014 Predictions and Expert Breakdown
Before the start of the 2014 Formula One season, no one was entirely sure what to expect.
Sweeping regulations changes looked set to turn the running order on its head. All three engine suppliers had demonstrated poor reliability during pre-season testing, and some were even wondering if any cars would finish the first race at all.
Such concerns meant the apparent running order in terms of pure speed may prove less important, especially in the early races. Mercedes and Williams had looked the front-runners over the winter, but testing can often give an unreliable picture.
Red Bull and Ferrari could not be entirely written off.
We here at Bleacher Report were asked to make a series of predictions for the year ahead, and predictions are only worth doing if one later looks back and assesses their accuracy.
So here's how current B/R F1 writers Matthew Walthert, Oliver Harden and Neil James, and B/R UK staff writer Mark Patterson, fared.
All quotes taken from the B/R F1 pre-season predictions article unless otherwise stated.
Who's Going to Win the Drivers' Championship?
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The first question produced four different responses.
Mark went with a fifth straight title for Sebastian Vettel, writing:
"Sebastian Vettel. It may well seem unlikely at the moment, and it may not be the most exciting prediction you'll ever hear, but there is little reason to doubt that the team will improve the car quickly—perhaps in time for that double points final race.
"
Matthew backed Fernando Alonso to shine after years in the shadow, while Oliver thought the new regulations would favour Nico Rosberg at Mercedes.
I went with eventual champion Lewis Hamilton, but still managed to be half wrong by saying his victory would be comfortable.
Going down to the wire at a double points season finale is anything but.
Who'll Win the Constructors' Championship?
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We fared much better with the constructors' championship than we did with the drivers'. Oliver was the lone voice taking a different path, going for a Ferrari win thanks to their two world champions.
Matthew, Mark and I went for Mercedes to come out on top, with Matthew writing:
"Mercedes. It has been five seasons since we had a split in the drivers' and constructors' championships (Hamilton won in 2008 for McLaren, but Ferrari took the constructors'). It feels like it is time for another. More consistent, if not spectacular, performances from the Mercedes drivers allows them to pip Ferrari.
"
But none of us said it would be such a walkover. Mercedes' near 300-point margin over Red Bull was the largest in F1 history.
Surprise Package of the Year
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There were several candidates to choose from, and two of us went for Force India. I suggested they'd score multiple podiums while Matthew also expected a strong showing for the Silverstone-based team.
Sixth in the championship with a single podium gives us both a little red cross here.
Oliver went with Felipe Massa, a driver who had a season of two halves. Early on he was average, but in the second part of the year he was quick, reliable and scored more points than team-mate Valtteri Bottas.
Also scoring a point here was Mark, who wrote:
"Williams. Is it a surprise? Their testing form was most impressive and given the depths they plumbed in 2013, it's a remarkable turnaround. Even if they're only top of the midfield teams, that's the biggest comeback since Brawn in 2009.
"
Williams finished third in the championship with 320 points—a 6300 percent increase on 2013. Even after a successful winter of testing, did anyone expect them to do that well?
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Surprise Flop of the Year
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For every winner there are dozens of losers, and three of us found one.
Oliver went with Caterham. He not only predicted they would remain rooted to the rear of the field, but also foresaw their mid-season sale.
Mark also opted for a Renault-engined team, Lotus, who scored just 10 points all year. I chose Kimi Raikkonen, writing:
"It won't be too surprising if he gets beaten by Fernando Alonso. What may surprise is the manner in which he loses. The Finn is still a magnificent talent, but he's not as good as he was and he's never looked right at Ferrari. His head will soon drop if Alonso stamps his authority early on.
"
But Matthew went for Williams, predicting:
"The boys (and girls) from Grove are getting lots of hype and, yes, the Martini livery looks great, but I can't see Williams winning the development race against the bigger-budget teams as the season progresses. They may have a surprise result or two early (remember when Pastor Maldonado won the 2012 Spanish Grand Prix?), but it will not last.
"
The reality was the opposite—Williams' performances improved as the season progressed, which likely surprised more than a few people.
But none of us had a word to say about Sebastian Vettel, who probably takes the crown in this category. Frequently outclassed by a team-mate no one seemed to rate as a stellar talent before the season began, the four-time champion gave up his title with a whimper.
King of Qualifying?
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Mercedes looked the quickest team, and Lewis Hamilton has long been known as one of the quickest men in the world over a single lap.
This one looked a shoo-in. All four of us took the bait, and all four of us were wrong. Only Oliver gave a word of caution, writing:
"Lewis Hamilton. Although Hamilton is second to Sebastian Vettel as the fastest driver over one lap, Red Bull's struggles should see Hamilton, with the grid's fastest car underneath him, claim F1's first Pole Position Trophy. But don't dismiss Rosberg after a run of surprise poles in 2013.
"
Yes, Hamilton missed two sessions due to reliability, and then there was Monaco. But Rosberg was unquestionably the top Saturday performer in 2014, with 11 pole positions.
Marussia or Caterham? And Will Either Score a Point?
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For some, the battle at the rear of the field is just as important as the fight at the front. This one is about survival; or at least, that's what we thought.
The four of us backed Marussia to not only beat Caterham, but to score their first-ever points in the process.
We all expected it to be as a result of an unpredictable race, and Oliver wrote:
"Marussia finally have the momentum after years of living in Caterham's shadow. If either team is to score a point or two, they must capitalise on any unpredictability, particularly in the early-season races between Australia and Bahrain. Their long-term futures might depend on it.
"
The race occurred a touch later, in Monaco, where Jules Bianchi's magnificent drive secured two points which, at the time, looked priceless.
Sadly, the team still folded.
2014's Storm in a Teacup
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What minor incident would be blown out of all proportion? We all did quite badly here.
I went for a Sebastian Vettel team radio meltdown as he battled early issues with his RB10, saying:
"Could be anything, but let's go with Sebastian Vettel. Early in the season he'll drop a few toys-out-of-the-pram sounding radio messages or interview comments. Then the whole world and his dog will jump on him for being immature and whiny.
"
However, Vettel remained mostly calm and moan-free, unlike his boss. Matthew opted for a minor cross-garage feud at Ferrari—partly right, but the protagonists were Fernando Alonso and Marco Mattiacci, not Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen.
Oliver and Mark thought we'd see some problems due to not many cars finishing the early races, but these fears turned out to be unfounded.
So what would have been right?
A good contender would be anything involving Felipe Massa. Usually a driver crashes and moves on after a quiet word or two; not so the Brazilian.
He fired off furious bursts at Kamui Kobayashi in Australia (before it was revealed the Japanese suffered a car failure), Sergio Perez in Canada and Kevin Magnussen in Germany. He also raged about Pirelli's choice of tyres for his home grand prix.
Hurricane Felipe, F1's very own storm in a Martini glass.
The Next Big Driver Move for 2015
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Looking ahead to what may occur towards the end of the 2014 campaign, we all came up with reasonable predictions of what could happen.
Two of us had Nico Hulkenberg as the well-deserved man on the move. Matthew had him heading for McLaren, while Oliver went for a switch to Ferrari.
I went with Fernando Alonso to McLaren, as did Mark, who wrote:
"Fernando Alonso to McLaren. Ron Dennis and Alonso have unfinished business, and if Alonso goes without the title for another season, his exasperation with Ferrari may reach a climax. And the merry-go-round that follows could be spectacular.
"
Said merry-go-round, including Sebastian Vettel to Ferrari, Daniil Kvyat to Red Bull and either Jenson Button or Kevin Magnussen to nowhere has indeed been quite the spectacle.
And it hasn't finished yet.
Best Driver Signing of 2014
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With so many drivers on the move, we had plenty of options here.
Mark chose Kevin Magnussen, a choice which—with respect to the young Dane—didn't quite hit the mark. Nor did Oliver's pick of Kimi Raikkonen.
I went for Nico Hulkenberg and he perhaps scored me half a point, but Matthew's double pick was the best of the bunch. He went with both the Force India drivers, writing:
"Hulkenberg and Perez, Force India. In case you can't tell by now, I rate both drivers quite highly. They fell into Force India's lap—Hulkenberg after Lotus did not have the money to sign him and Perez after being axed by McLaren—but the team should benefit immensely.
"
For a midfield team, they have an excellent lineup with the added bonus of Perez's Mexican sponsors. The car didn't quite turn out as well as they'd hoped, but both drivers put in some great performances.
Grand Prix of the Season
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We all went with different races for different reasons.
I went for the season-opening Australian Grand Prix, writing:
"Australia. It's been years since we had a race with this many unknowns, and it'll be so different to what we've become accustomed to. The anticipation is so high and everything points to the whole weekend being edge-of-the-seat stuff.
"
Oliver went with a returning race, the Austrian Grand Prix. It always seemed to produce good racing in the past, and he said:
"Austria. The unpredictability of the early season races makes them all must-sees, but Austria is an exciting addition to the calendar at a scenic venue when any early season mayhem should begin to settle down and it starts to get a little more serious.
"
Matthew expected the tension of the season finale in Abu Dhabi to make it No. 1, while Mark chose Germany.
But we were all wrong, as none of our picks really stood out. The race of the season was probably either Bahrain, Canada or Hungary.
Drivers in Their Final Year of Formula 1
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Picking out the drivers skating on thin ice isn't especially pleasant, but we all did our duty.
Matthew was also right in his selection of Jean-Eric Vergne. Mark picked out Max Chilton, writing:
"I think Button will stay, which will mean that there will be no high-profile exits. Max Chilton is lucky to be in a drive for another year at Marussia, while it seems like Daniil Kvyat's first-chance has come too early.
"
I listed five drivers—Chilton, Vergne, Kamui Kobayashi, Marcus Ericsson and Jenson Button. At least one is wrong; we'll discover whether it's two very shortly.
But Oliver's list of six wins the day. He wrote:
"Jenson Button will retire. Esteban Gutierrez will succumb to one of the queue of drivers lining up to replace him at Sauber. Toro Rosso's patience with Jean-Eric Vergne will run out. Marcus Ericsson, Kamui Kobayashi and Max Chilton, meanwhile, will all fall off the radar.
"
Four of those have definitely gone for now. Ericsson took his financial backing to Sauber, while Button remains in limbo.
Curiously, none of us selected Adrian Sutil. Only our former colleague, Fraser Masefield, scored a point on the German.
Rookie of the Year
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Five new boys arrived in 2014, but at the beginning of the year we only had three to choose from. Kevin Magnussen, Daniil Kvyat or Marcus Ericsson?
We all plumped for the McLaren new boy, Magnussen, and some of us made some spectacularly inaccurate projections for the season ahead. I dropped a bit of a stinker, writing:
"Kevin Magnussen. Daniil Kvyat won't disappoint. Marcus Ericsson might. But Magnussen looks very exciting and has a car that looks like it can run at the front. Can definitely see him regularly ahead of Jenson Button by the end of the year.
"
Oliver also had Magnussen pegged as a potential team leader by the end of the year.
As it happened, Button gave the young Dane a bit of a pasting. It wasn't a terrible debut season by any means, but Kvyat was the top newbie of 2014.
Will There Be a First-Time Grand Prix Winner?
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With reliability issues filling the headlines, this one looked wide open. By the end of the season, there had been just one—Daniel Ricciardo.
Matthew saw it coming and dropped in a prophetic warning to Sebastian Vettel, writing:
"Yes, Daniel Ricciardo. Red Bull had plenty of problems in the pre-season and may not win any titles this year, but they should still win some races. The last time Vettel was beaten by a team-mate was the 2012 Brazilian Grand Prix, but that streak has to end sometime.
"
I also went for Ricciardo, who won three races in an impressive first season with a top team.
But Oliver's primary pick, Nico Hulkenberg, finished no higher than fifth and Mark didn't expect any new boys on the top step at all.
Had Mercedes not dropped the ball on three occasions, he would have been right.
Something Formula 1 Will Prove in 2014
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This wide-open topic produced a range of predictions.
Mark thought the year would prove—to those in power at least—that double points at the final race was a good idea. Reality and their removal from the 2015 regulations proved Matthew correct—he said 2014 would show they were a stupid idea.
My own prediction also came true, after I wrote:
"The whole Ferrari operation is in need of a major overhaul. Massive budget, magnificent history, the best driver line-up around and (on paper) top-quality personnel...but they're not going to win either title this year. Again.
"
But Oliver put his weight behind a certain four-time champion, writing:
"Just how good Sebastian Vettel really is. Red Bull's struggles—however long they last—present a perfect opportunity for Vettel, as the underdog, to showcase his true character, earn the respect of the boo-boys and put his status as an all-time great beyond any doubt.
"
The German's performances against Daniel Ricciardo did the opposite. Vettel's all-time status is now more questionable than ever, and he heads to Ferrari with many points to prove.
But none of us picked what must surely be the biggest proved point of the season—that the sport's revenue sharing system is totally broken and badly needs a change.
In Closing...
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A variable set of results, some good and some bad. None of us emerged a clear "winner," and we all dropped our fair share of howlers into the mix.
But in our defence, we got one or two right.
If you remember your own pre-season thoughts, why not expose yourself as a genius/flop in the comments section?
We're all available on Twitter:
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