Ballon D'Or 2015: Predictions for World Football's Year-End Honor
With 2014 coming to a close, it's time to start handing out the yearly superlatives in world football, and no individual honor is more coveted than the Ballon d'Or.
In the grand scheme of things, the number of Ballons d'or a player wins are relatively meaningless. Individual moments of brilliance and team successes are most often remembered when looking back on a player's legacy.
However, that never stops the annual discussion surrounding which star is most deserving to win the Ballon d'Or. Plenty of fans across the globe have already made their predictions for how this year's voting will play out.
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Individual Form Will Trump Team Success
Any time an individual award is handed out in any sport, fans and voters face the existential crisis about how to properly weigh individual talent/production versus team triumphs.
According to FIFA's official website, the Ballon d'Or winner will be "recognised as the best individual talent for the past year in world football."
As Fox Soccer's Leander Schaerlackens explains, however, you can twist the true meaning of the Ballon d'Or to fit just about any argument:
"Who wins this award, then, will depend on how the voters judge the ill-defined criteria for this award. If this is an individual-as-part-of-a-team-performance award, Neuer should win it. If it counts for the greatest contribution to a club's success, Ronaldo should have it. And if this a prize in recognition of almost single-handedly dragging your country into the final of the biggest tournament in the sport, it should be Messi's.
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The official definition would seem to indicate that club/national team success shouldn't be a deciding factor in choosing a winner, but that's almost never the case. It's why many believed Franck Ribery should've won the 2013 Ballon d'Or over Ronaldo last year and why those same people argue Neuer should beat out the Madrid winger this year.
Although Ronaldo helped Real Madrid help capture that elusive 10th European title, his trophy haul pales in comparison to Neuer's.
Bayern Munich won the Bundesliga by 19 points while also winning the 2013 Club World Cup and DFB-Pokal. Most importantly, Neuer played a key role for Germany as they took home their fourth World Cup title.
However, Neuer runs into two problems.
The first is that he's a goalkeeper. It's much harder to quantify a goalkeeper's quality and impact relative to an outfield player simply because he has much less to do.
With the numbers that are available, you must put into context the strength of his defense. The number of saves a GK makes and clean sheets he keeps aren't simply the measure of his ability. They're reflective of the defense as a whole.
Neuer may be the best goalkeeper in the world, but Lev Yashin's the only GK to win the Ballon d'Or, and that was back in 1963.
In an interview with FIFA.com, Gianluigi Buffon, arguably the best goalkeeper of his generation and the 2006 Ballon d'Or runner-up, acknowledged that goalkeepers are almost always overlooked during award season:
"For a goalkeeper to win the award today something truly exceptional has to happen. Often the prize doesn’t go to the best player, but to the player who has won more games, and who was most decisive in those victories. So perhaps a goalkeeper will win the Ballon d’Or when he helps his team become world champions by winning four games in a row on penalties and saving every spot-kick (laughs). That way no one can overlook him! But something really remarkable needs to happen.
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Not only is Neuer battling history, but some may also contend that he wasn't even the best player on his own team, with Arjen Robben playing a large role in Bayern's success. Robben also helped the Netherlands reach the World Cup semifinal.
You could see how Robben and Neuer might have split votes, which would mean a greater chance that either Messi or Ronaldo basks in the spotlight.
Ronaldo, on the other hand, benefits from being a flashy playmaker and goalscorer on the reigning European champions. He's also built up a lot of equity in the eyes of the voters.
Bayern Munich and Germany midfielder Thomas Muller questioned having a Ballon d'Or ceremony at all when the Portuguese star is widely expected to win, per The Telegraph:
""If it were to happen that Cristiano Ronaldo wins, then it would be almost boring," Muller said.
"In that case, maybe it would be an idea to reconsider the whole award and just send the title by post."
Muller believes the whole vote is a farce with perennial favourites Ronaldo and Messi taking the place of others he believes would be more worthy, and not only Neuer.
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There's unlikely to be a better chance for a goalkeeper to match Yashin anytime soon. Unfortunately for Neuer, he has the rotten timing of playing in the same era as Ronaldo and Messi in their respective primes.
Lionel Messi Will Finish Lowest in Voting Since 2007
It almost feels like Messi is a complete afterthought this year, which is the first time that's the case in a long time. Going back to the Ballon d'Or's days outside of the FIFA designation, the last year in which the Barcelona playmaker failed to finish first or second was 2007, when Kaka won.
Messi remains one of the top players in the world, but 2014 felt like a bit of a drop by his sky-high standards.
Barcelona dealt with managerial upheaval and injuries en route to a runner-up finish to Atletico Madrid in 2013/14. They also lost to Atletico in the quarterfinals of the Champions League.
Most players would count those two campaigns as nice accomplishments, but those are both disappointing finishes for Messi.
The 27-year-old did, however, set the La Liga career scoring mark in November, per Squawka:
Messi also won the Golden Ball at the 2014 World Cup, and Argentina finished second at the World Cup, so the international success is there.
With that said, this year appears to be Ronaldo's, with Neuer's combination of performance and team success propelling him into second.
