NFL Power Rankings Week 14: Updated 2014 Analysis Before Thursday Night Football

NFL records can play mischievous tricks on the mind, deceiving pundits and fans into believing misconceptions that eventually unravel.

Remember when some people actually thought the Arizona Cardinals were the best team in the league? Even with Carson Palmer, that misleading 9-1 club was never going to edge out close wins all the way to the Super Bowl.

Saying the team with the better record is the superior squad going forward is no fun. Small sample sizes are small, and no sport brandishes as tiny a slate as the 16-game NFL campaign. 

Besides, so many teams are evenly matched on the win-loss ledger that everyone is forced to dig deeper into meatier stuff, like point differential, strength of schedule and Football Outsiders' Weighted Defense-adjusted Value over Average (DVOA).

All those factors figured into the latest batch of power rankings entering Week 14.

32. Oakland Raiders (1-11)

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Swimming in unfamiliar water, the Oakland Raiders panicked after their first win of the season expelled them from last place in the rankings. A 52-0 loss to the St. Louis Rams later, and Oakland falls right back to where it started.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)

The Jacksonville Jaguars won't always face an opponent who is generous enough to gift 14 points to them on fumbles. Besides, wouldn't they rather a higher draft pick than a fluky win at this point?

30. Tennessee Titans (2-10)

Over the last two games, the Tennessee Titans have surrendered 919 total yards and 88 points. Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick aren't quite the cream of the quarterback crop either. 

29. New York Jets (2-10)

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Rex Ryan tested out a bold experiment to circumvent his quarterback woes: don't throw. Tossed back into the starting role by default, Geno Smith threw 13 passes while handing it off 49 times, an unfathomable distribution for a 2014 NFL game.

It worked for a bit, until the Miami Dolphins finally put up points. Needing a late scoring drive to save the game, the Jets were hopeless.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10)

Despite their dreadful 2-10 record, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have only lost two games by more than 10 points. Since their Week 7 bye, they hold a minus-10 point differential despite their 1-5 record, making them the most passable team from the terrible bottom tier.

27. Carolina Panthers (3-8-1)

If not for letting the Minnesota Vikings score two touchdowns on blocked punts, the Carolina Panthers would have stood a strong chance of attaining their last victory since Week 5. They gained 138 more yards than their opponent, but Cam Newton once again fizzled in the passing game.

26. Washington Redskins (3-9)

Small sample size alert: Colt McCoy has completed 75.4 percent of his passes through four games. Per Washington's team Twitter page, head coach Jay Gruden credited his backup for diving into starting duty with aplomb.

After giving up 9.9 yards per play to the Indianapolis Colts, Washington needs something to get excited about.

25. New York Giants (3-9)

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How bad was New York's second-half meltdown in Jacksonville? Tom Coughlin summed it up pretty well to NJ.com's Jordan Raanan.

"We've talked about this, and we've talked about the turnovers. Two turnovers for touchdowns?" Coughlin said. "We could have knelt on the ball in the second half and had a better chance to win."

All that remains now, in perhaps Coughlin's last month as head coach, are games with pivotal draft implications against Tennessee and Washington.

24. Chicago Bears (5-7)

After jumping out to a 14-3 lead at Detroit, the Chicago Bears crumbled, losing 34-17 to the Lions. Matt Forte finished with a bafflingly low five carries. 

23. Minnesota Vikings (5-7)

Minnesota has still not defeated a winning team all season, yet it can still jump one game short of .500 by topping the Jets this weekend. Against Smith, the passing defense can pad its numbers enough to jump into the top five of yards allowed through the air.

22. Atlanta Falcons (5-7)

Despite starting 2-6, the Atlanta Falcons still control a saddening NFC South after knocking off Arizona at home. While that upset wasn't a shocker of monumental proportions, besting the Green Bay Backers at Lambeau Field this Monday night certainly would be.

21. St. Louis Rams (5-7)

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There's nothing like a 52-0 win to leapfrog a few teams up the rankings. The season's most lopsided annihilation vaulted the Rams all the way up to No. 17 in weighted DVOA. 

Aaron Donald deserves a lion's share of the credit for St. Louis' defensive awakenings. Pro Football Focus touts him as the season's most productive defensive tackle.

"

Only one rookie leads the NFL in PFF grade at his position so far this year: Aaron Donald. #Rams rookie leads all DTs

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) December 3, 2014"

20. New Orleans Saints (5-7)

If they beat the Bears and everyone in the NFC South, the Saints will host a playoff game at 9-7. That sounds nice and feasible for the division's premier offense.

19. Cleveland Browns (7-5)

The Cleveland Browns rate No. 21 in weighted DVOA, which gives them the lowest mark among teams with a winning record. Over the past three weeks, they lost ugly to the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills and won ugly over Atlanta due to errant clock management.

18. Houston Texans (6-6)

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If DeAndre Hopkins' 238 yards and two touchdowns don't stamp his status as a burgeoning star, what will? With four games left to play, he's one of nine wide receivers to have already cracked the 1,000-yard milestone.

17. Buffalo Bills (7-5)

The Bill's plus-47 point differential is a tad misleading, as they have exploited the Jets to a 55-point scoring margin through two combined wins. But given their No. 5 defense and NFL-best 48 sacks, the Bills deserve their winning record, which could vanish after December bouts against the Denver Broncos, Packers and New England Patriots.

16. San Francisco 49ers (7-5)

Out of the seven teams with 7-5 records, only the San Francisco 49ers post a negative point differential at minus-13. Since Week 6, Colin Kaepernick has averaged 6.70 yards per passing attempt with five touchdowns and has no games with 25 or more rushing yards.

It's time to admit that the 49ers are just an average football team.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)

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Le'Veon Bell has eclipsed 100 total yards in 10 of 12 games. Antonio Brown's lowest output of the season consisted of 74 yards. Ben Roethlisberger has two of the league's brightest offensive weapons at his disposal.

14. Baltimore Ravens (7-5)

The Baltimore Ravens remain an enigma. Although they're No. 4 in DVOA and No. 5 in point differential at plus-86, they're 2-5 against winning teams.

Given a golden opportunity to rise ahead of the AFC wild-card picture, they instead squandered a 10-point lead to the San Diego Chargers in six minutes.

13. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1)

No team has lost fewer games than the Cincinnati Bengals, but is anyone truly buying what they're selling? They're No. 19 in weighted DVOA, and 10 AFC squads boast a better point differential than their plus-13.

Yes, they have won three straight games, all on the road, but they barely survived the two-win Buccaneers during a 14-13 nail-biter. As of now, they're simply not a formidable title contender.

12. San Diego Chargers (8-4)

One wild finish can change the entire course of a season. If the Chargers had stayed down against Baltimore, they would have been losers of four of the past six contests. With upcoming matchups against New England and Denver, everyone would have stuck a fork in their playoff hopes.

Yet now they stand a game above a six-team mob of 7-5 AFC wild-card competitors. 

11. Dallas Cowboys (8-4)

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On the other end of that thought, one brutal loss sends the Dallas Cowboys from controlling the NFC East to clawing for a playoff spot. Point to Tony Romo's brutal showing, but how about DeMarco Murray compiling a season-low 73 rushing yards on 20 carries? 

This is where fatigue concerns could manifest into tangible worry, as he's on pace to receive an unfathomable 384 handoffs this season. Could this be the first sign of wear and tear?

10. Detroit Lions (8-4)

The Lions entered the second quarter with a nine-period touchdown drought, one that they snapped with three scores before halftime. Playing his best game since Week 1, a healthy and dominant Calvin Johnson can lift the offense from average to juggernaut.

9. Kansas City Chiefs (7-5)

It was disappointing to see the Kansas City Chiefs not give the Broncos much of a fight. While they amassed just 151 offensive yards, C.J. Anderson alone pummeled them with 168 yards on the ground.

Kansas City's league-best passing defense will have to offset a decrepit rushing defense that has surrendered 4.9 yards per run.

8. Miami Dolphins (7-5)

This spot will ruffle some feathers, especially after Miami narrowly salvaged a victory over the Jets on Monday night. Yet the Dolphins place No. 8 in DVOA and point differential, and only the Chiefs have yielded fewer total yards.

Even if this allotment is a week early, they'll prove worthy of it with a win over the Ravens on Sunday.

7. Arizona Cardinals (9-3)

It's only a matter of time before the Cardinals drop outside the top 10. They came dangerously close to entering the week with 11 straight scoreless quarters before Drew Stanton led a touchdown drive in garbage time.

6. Seattle Seahawks (8-4)

See, there was never a reason to panic. After two consecutive 19-3 victories, the Seattle Seahawks can put themselves on the fast track to the NFC West title and a first-round bye by beating the Philadelphia Eagles.

5. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)

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When the Colts face a vulnerable opponent, they show no mercy. In five games against losing teams, they're undefeated with a 21.8-point margin of victory. Unfortunately for them, that won't matter in the playoffs.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (9-3)

The Philadelphia Eagles give up huge chunks through the air, but their 258.6 yards relinquished per game doesn't do them justice. No team wields a lower completion percentage than Philadelphia's 57.5, and the team leads the NFC with 22 takeaways and 42 sacks. 

3. Denver Broncos (9-3)

Since getting stunned by the Rams, John Fox has radically altered the Broncos' offensive approach. Per NFL Network's Albert Breer:

Both matchups (Miami and Kansas City) made such a tactic prudent, but he can't be afraid to uncage Peyton Manning against weaker secondaries.

2. New England Patriots (9-3)

Denver isn't the only AFC powerhouse to lean more heavily on the run. PFF's Mike Clay shows the Patriots' growing tendency to hand the ball off at the goal line:

As both these elite offenses develop lethal balance, they look bound for another AFC Championship Game collision.

1. Green Bay Packers (9-3)

Aaron Rodgers is operating on another stratosphere, yet his 66.3 completion percentage and 8.75 yards per attempt nearly replicate last year's success. It's his 33 touchdowns and three interceptions that make him the MVP front-runner. 

Going off Ric Flair rules, the Packers seize the No. 1 spot after besting the Patriots in a potential Super Bowl preview.