College Football Rankings 2014: Playoff Predictions for Top Contenders
There are many teams across the nation worthy of a spot in the inaugural College Football Playoff; however, there is only room for four.
Before a pivotal Week 14, the Top Four consisted of Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Mississippi State in the eyes of the College Football Playoff selection committee. The new rankings have yet to be released, but following the Bulldogs' loss to the Ole Miss Rebels, we can rest assured there will be some significant changes.
With just under one week remaining until Selection Sunday, one burning question remains: Which four contenders will comprise the nation's best four teams once the dust settles after conference championship games? Some predictions are in order.
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Although, let's take these predictions just one step further and project just how far each Top Four team will go, concluding with our expected national champion. Before we delve into those predictions, here's a look at the AP Top 25 to help get an idea of which teams are still in contention.
Top Four Predictions
1. Alabama
The Crimson Tide won the Iron Bowl in dramatic fashion, lighting up the scoreboard to obtain a 55-44 victory over Auburn. The team's second-half efficiency certainly helped matters, via ESPN College Football:
Alabama will be facing Missouri in the SEC title game, and while the Tigers are talented, they will have trouble putting up necessary points against the Crimson Tide's sixth-ranked scoring defense. Alabama takes the SEC and remains No. 1 overall.
2. Oregon
The Ducks aren't a lock for the No. 2 seed with a game against the Arizona Wildcats on the horizon. Arizona has defeated Oregon in their last two meetings; however, Heisman-hopeful quarterback Marcus Mariota is in excellent form coming off his first six-touchdown performance of the season in the Civil War. In fact, he's been in excellent form his entire career, via ESPN Stats & Info:
Expect the Ducks to ride that momentum to a Pac-12 title and the No. 2 seed.
3. TCU
The Horned Frogs visited Texas and handed the Longhorns a blowout loss. While Texas didn't exactly play a spectacular game, TCU reaffirmed why it is one of the nation's most dangerous teams. ESPN's Chris Fowler tweeted his take:
This team will deliver an even larger victory over Iowa State on Saturday, further solidifying its spot in the College Football Playoff at No. 3 overall.
4. Florida State
The Seminoles may be undefeated, but they have only won by margins of five points or fewer in their last three games against unranked opponents. That keeps Florida State in the hunt, but it's not winning it any style points in the eyes of the selection committee. Quarterback Jameis Winston needs to buck this trend quickly, via ESPN Stats & Info:
The Seminoles will be heavily tested against Georgia Tech, but another close victory will see them squeeze into the College Football Playoff at No. 4.
College Football Playoff Bowl Game Predictions
| Sugar Bowl | No. 1 Alabama | No. 4 Florida State |
| Rose Bowl | No. 2 Oregon | No. 3 TCU |
Sugar Bowl
Florida State hasn't seen a team quite like Alabama this season, and that will be the Seminoles' undoing. Winston has been extremely sluggish in the first half of games this season, and ESPN Stats & Info summed up his struggles with this tweet:
Meanwhile, Alabama's potent offense may have been one reason why Auburn fired defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson just one day after the Iron Bowl. Blake Sims may have struggled early in the game, but he was bailed out in a big way by Amari Cooper, who went for 224 yards and three touchdowns.
Defending against the pass has been a big weakness of the Seminoles this season, ranking 62nd in the nation. They don't have the personnel to contain Cooper, and that could lead to the Crimson Tide building an early lead. If that happens, don't expect any kind of miracle comeback against Alabama's sixth-ranked scoring defense.
Prediction: Alabama 38, Florida State 24
Rose Bowl
This matchup could easily be a tremendous shootout. Trevone Boykin and the Horned Frogs have the nation's third-ranked offense, scoring an average of 46.1 points per game. This team hasn't been held to fewer than 30 points in any single game this season.
On the flip side, Mariota leads Oregon's fourth-ranked offense, averaging 45.9 points per game. He's been incredibly efficient this season, and Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports tweeted the impressive numbers:
Boykin has tallied 34 total touchdowns this season, but he's accompanied them with six interceptions and a completion percentage of 59.3. While those are some gaudy numbers, he simply isn't nearly as efficient as Mariota, and that will be the reason Oregon takes the Rose Bowl.
Expect plenty of points scored between these two teams, but the Ducks will pull away late due to steady quarterbacking and a wide array of versatile offensive weapons.
Prediction: Oregon 49, TCU 38
National Championship
With wins by Alabama and Oregon, we have a showdown of the nation's Top Two teams in the national championship game. This would certainly be a case of the irresistible force meeting an immovable object, as Alabama's defense will be a challenge for Oregon's offense and vice versa.
ESPN College Football tweeted one ominous omen that the Ducks must overcome in this instance:
Mariota has been one of the nation's most exiting players to watch this season, and he's certainly the clear-cut favorite for the Heisman Trophy. He fared well against a good Michigan State defense early in the season; however, the Crimson Tide have been much better, and this game will be taking place at a neutral location—not in Eugene.
While Alabama gets plenty of credit for its defense, its offense may be slightly underrated. This team is still putting up an average of 36.7 points per game, good enough for 20th in the nation. A balanced attack with Sims at quarterback and T.J. Yeldon in the backfield allows Alabama to keep opposing defenses off balance.
Oregon's defense is allowing an average of 23.3 points per game, ranking 32nd in the nation. However, that hasn't been due to limiting yards accumulated by opposing offenses. The Ducks are ranked 54th against the run, allowing 157.8 yards per game, and 111th against the pass, allowing 271.8 yards per game.
Alabama will be able to put up some significant points on this defense, and while Mariota is very capable of lighting up scoreboards, it will be extremely difficult for him to find Heisman-like success against the Crimson Tide.
This will be a highly entertaining game, but Alabama will earn yet another national title.
Prediction: Alabama 38, Oregon 30
All team statistics and rankings courtesy of NCAA.com and current as of December 1.
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