Ohio State Basketball: Preview and Prediction for Showdown with Louisville

If the 2014-15 Ohio State basketball team wants to add a marquee nonconference road victory to its resume, it only has one chance—Tuesday against Louisville.

Clearly, winning at Louisville is not a make-or-break situation for the Buckeyes’ NCAA tournament hopes, but it is critical when you start talking about Ohio State finding itself in a possible top-three seed range on Selection Sunday.

It’s not like Dwyane Wade was still lacing it up for that very pedestrian Marquette team the Buckeyes beat in Columbus, and the showdown with North Carolina is at a neutral site. Beating the Tar Heels would also be a massive win, but true road victories are what really catch the eyes of the selection committee.

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What’s more, conference bragging rights will be on the line in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, which could come into play in March if Ohio State is battling with ACC squads for the same seed.

There is a chance that a defensive slugfest will break out Tuesday.

Louisville is the top team in Ken Pomeroy’s pace-adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, largely because Montrezl Harrell is a defensive nightmare for opposing teams. The versatile big guy checks in at 6’8” and is a monster on the boards. And he flies around the court with athleticism and speed that help him cover almost the entire baseline down low.

Bottom line is that Harrell is one of the best players in the entire country, and it will be up to the Buckeyes' trio of Amir Williams, Trey McDonald and Anthony Lee to deal with him down low.

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Ohio State also has to worry about Harrell’s offense considering he leads Louisville in scoring with 17.4 points a game and can find the basket from mid-range or down on the low blocks. He may be the best big guy Ohio State faces all season as a future first-round NBA draft pick, which will at least be a great source of experience before physically grueling Big Ten play starts.

Louisville may also be the best rebounding team in the country (it is second in the nation in rebounds per game) because of the trio of Harrell, Chinanu Onuaku and Mangok Mathiang, who are all averaging more than 7.5 rebounds a game.

By contrast, nobody on Ohio State even averages six boards a night, which is critical because who controls the glass will go a long way toward determining the winner.

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The Cardinals can get the crowd going with a few easy putbacks, but the Buckeyes can counter by stringing together consecutive defensive stops if they grab the rebounds. Louisville is only shooting 43.7 percent from the field, so there will be misses to grab.

The Buckeyes love to run with Shannon Scott and his 10.4 assists per game leading the way and D’Angelo Russell and Sam Thompson filling the wings, but they need to grab those long rebounds that bounce off the rim if Louisville misses first.

Pushing the tempo would prevent Louisville from setting up its devastating half-court defense and bolster Ohio State’s chances at pulling off the upset.

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The Cardinals aren’t the only team that can play effective defense in this game. The Buckeyes are 17th in Pomeroy’s rankings and should be able to contain a Louisville squad that only scored 45 points in its last win against Cleveland State.

Scott, Russell and Thompson will be critical on the perimeter as they try to pressure Chris Jones and Terry Rozier and prevent the guards from setting up Harrell and the big guys in an ideal position to score. 

On the other end, look for Russell to establish his offense from the opening tip. He is a Louisville native and will be ready to show his hometown Cardinals what they missed out on. Ohio State’s associate athletics director for communications, Dan Wallenberg, pointed out just how effective Russell has been in the early going:

Russell is a major reason why the Buckeyes have played so well this season, but that is also largely a factor of a weak schedule. They are yet to leave the friendly confines of Value City Arena, let alone play one of the best teams in the country in their place.

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The crowd will be rocking from the start, especially because Louisville is a stranger to the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. These are the type of marquee games that the Cardinals switched to the ACC for, and the crowd will respond accordingly.

The reason the Buckeyes will suffer their first loss of the season is not just the crowd, though. Louisville’s defense is simply suffocating and held its last two opponents to a combined 59 points in 87-26 and 45-33 victories.

It doesn’t really matter if those games were against Savannah State and Cleveland State because it is ridiculous to hold a Division I college basketball team to a measly 26 points. You could put together a group of former high school players who are playing in local recreation leagues and get to 26 points in a 40-minute game against most opponents.

Ohio State will stay close behind a motivated Russell and a strong defense of its own, but the combination of the crowd, the fact that it is the Buckeyes’ first major test and the Louisville defense will ultimately prove too much. 

Prediction: Louisville 62, Ohio State 57

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