NFL Picks and Predictions Week 13: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Last week, your boy—the esteemed captain of #TeamDegenerate—ran off to a 6-2 start against the spread. I was feeling good. Real good. Too good, in fact, since I finished on a 2-5 run to close the week at 8-7.

That's not so good.

This past Thursday, I was feeling good after the Lions covered. Real good. Too good, in fact, since I lost the final two Thanksgiving plays to put my record for the week at 1-2 going into Sunday's action.

That's not so good.

Overall, I'm now 20 games over .500 for the season but took another beating on my best bets, going 2-3 last week and losing with San Francisco on Thursday. I'm not sure if I'm on tilt, but if I have to ask the question, it means I probably am, so I would advise my fellow #TeamDegenerate members to exercise caution when reviewing my plays for Week 13.

But I'm nothing if not an optimist, so this I say to you: It's time, peeps. It's time to make that money, yo.

Here is my Ultimate Bettor's Guide for NFL Week 13.

Total Season ATS: 98-78-3 (including Detroit, Dallas and San Francisco on Thursday)

Total Season Best Bets ATS: 30-32 (including San Francisco on Thursday)

Thanksgiving: Chicago at Detroit, Philadelphia at Dallas, Seattle at SF

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

I hope all my fellow #TeamDegenerate members had a fantastic Thanksgiving—rife with delicious, button-busting food, great company and, of course, a generous heaping of gambling.

As for your boy: I went 1-2 on the day, winning with the Lions but losing with the Cowboys and 49ers. And like a dope, I played San Francisco in the Hilton SuperContest, which pissed me off to such a degree that my family was concerned for my mental health circa 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday night.

In retrospect, the Lions were the easiest play of the week. There was no way the hapless Bears would hang in Motown without being able to run the football. And even though the Cowboys didn't cover, I don't feel horrible about that particular wager. 

But the 49ers were such a bad pick. That was as awful a pick as Bill Murray choosing his wife over Scarlett Johansson at the end of Lost in Translation. The 49ers could have been given eight quarters and not scored more than 10 points. It was a positively putrid performance that has them on the outside looking in of the NFC playoff picture and the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks looking like world beaters.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have some more leftovers to eat.

San Diego at Baltimore

DENIS POROY/Associated Press

The Line: San Diego at Baltimore (-6.5)

According to Vegas, the Ravens are the clear favorite in Sunday's tilt with the Chargers in Baltimore.

Both teams are legitimate playoff contenders in the AFC, but the Ravens have the look and feel of a Super Bowl threat. Baltimore is two years removed from its last Super Bowl title, and both its offensive and defensive lines are playing at a ridiculously high level.

But with that said, 6.5 points is too many to give to Philip Rivers and the San Diego Super Chargers. If the Bolts have proved anything in recent years, it's that they finish strong—and they'll need to do just that if they want to make the playoffs, given their closing schedule of at Baltimore, New England, Denver, at San Francisco and at Kansas City.

This profiles as a classic Rivers game. The Chargers won't be able to run the football with much success, which means Rivers will have to sling it all over the field, and he's usually up to the task. The Ravens will end up squeaking out a close victory, but Rivers will keep the Chargers inside the number with an outstanding performance.

The Pick: San Diego (+6.5)

Cleveland at Buffalo

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

The Line: Cleveland at Buffalo (-3)

Last week, Cleveland Browns receiver Josh Gordon—aka Flash, aka JG12, aka WR1—returned to the lineup and hauled in eight receptions for 120 yards.

Ho hum.

It was just another day at the office for the best receiver in football, who shook off rust like Taylor Swift shakes off...whatever it is she shakes off. And Gordon's performance was especially impressive considering his quarterback, Brian Hoyer, couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat for the vast majority of the game.

I know that the Bills have built some momentum. I'm fully aware that they dismantled the Jets last Monday night in Detroit. It's obvious that the crowd at Ralph Wilson Stadium is going to be rowdy, and the home-field advantage will be fierce. 

It's not that I don't care about these things. It's that Josh Gordon ain't got no time to fret about such trivial matters.

Gordon—aka WR1—will lay waste to the Buffalo secondary and lead Cleveland to an 8-4 record.

#swoon

The Pick: Cleveland (+3)

Tennessee at Houston

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

The Line: Tennessee at Houston (-6.5)

Do you see the man in the picture above? His name is Arian Foster, and when healthy (always an iffy proposition), he is the starting running back for the Houston Texans.

I'm kindly issuing you the reminder (#JayZVoice) that Foster is indeed on the Texans, considering he has missed the last two games and three overall this year, likely sinking fantasy seasons across the country. And if you're one of his fantasy owners and didn't handcuff him with Alfred Blue, well, you ain't too bright, homie. But you also need to separate fantasy from reality. And by reality, I mean gambling.

When he's played this year, Foster has been outstanding, rushing for 5.1 yards per carry. And with the Titans run defense folding like a cheap suit, Foster should have a field day.

I know it's tough, but don't be scared of Ryan Fitzpatrick returning as Houston's starting quarterback. All he'll have to do in this game is hand the ball off to Foster and watch him make fools of Tennessee's defenders.

This one won't be close.

The Pick: Houston (-6.5)

Washington at Indianapolis

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

The Line: Washington at Indianapolis (-9.5)

The Washington Redskins have dropped three consecutive games and, at 3-8, are one of the NFL's biggest dumpster fires.

The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a 20-point beatdown of the Jaguars and sit in first place in the AFC South at 7-4.

The Redskins just benched their starting quarterback, Robert Griffin III, in favor of Colt McCoy.

The Colts employ Andrew Luck at quarterback, and he's one of the finest players in the league.

Indianapolis is only favored by 9.5 points at home against McCoy and the Redskins. 

Homie, if you don't know the drill by now, I don't think I can help you.

The Pick: Washington (+9.5)

NY Giants at Jacksonville

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

The Line: NY Giants at Jacksonville (+3)

Even though the casinos didn't build themselves, there are times where rolling with the public is the smartest option, and Sunday's game between the Giants and Jaguars in Jacksonville certainly qualifies.

While the Giants have lost six consecutive games—most in heinous, mind-numbing fashion—they have been competitive against some of the better teams in the NFL. Conversely, the Jaguars look like hot garbage against pretty much every team they tangle with.

Jacksonville has lost by at least 10 points in its last four games and could very well be the worst team in the league, which is an achievement considering the aforementioned league includes the hapless Raiders. 

The Giants just have too much talent (and by talent, I mean star receiver Odell Beckham Jr.) and should be able to overwhelm the Jaguars.

Don't stress the fact that 86 percent of the public is on Big Blue (OK, you can stress it a little). Trust what you know.

And what you know is that the Giants are the vastly superior team.

The Pick: NY Giants (-3)

Carolina at Minnesota

Jim Mone/Associated Press

The Line: Carolina at Minnesota (-2.5)

Repeat after me, class: When two bad teams get together—and the home team is favored by less than a field goal—you lay the damn points and don't look back.

Class dismissed.

The Pick: Minnesota (-2.5)

New Orleans at Pittsburgh

Gene Puskar/Associated Press

The Line: New Orleans at Pittsburgh (-5)

The New Orleans Saints just dropped three consecutive home games, which would be like the lions losing in the Roman Colosseum three weeks in a row. In the Sean Payton and Drew Brees Era, that kind of thing just doesn't happen.

Even despite those home defeats—and a dreadful 4-7 record—the Saints still find themselves in contention to win the pathetic NFC South, and I think they will eventually do so.

But the turnaround won't begin on Sunday in Pittsburgh.

The Steelers are coming off the bye and appear to be rounded into form and ready to make a postseason run. How in the world is New Orleans' atrocious defense going to stop Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown? Answer: It isn't.

Expect the Steelers to roll at home.

The Pick: Pittsburgh (-5)

Oakland at St. Louis

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

The Line: Oakland at St. Louis (-7)

Repeat after me:

Too many points.

Too many points.

Too many damn points, yo.

Ya dig?

The Pick: Oakland (+7)

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay

David Kohl/Associated Press

The Line: Cincinnati at Tampa Bay (+3.5)

A few days ago, we all experienced the highlight of the week, and it was extraordinary.

And no, I'm not talking about Thanksgiving—I'm talking about the trailer for the new Star Wars movie. OK, I don't really mean that (I gambled all day on Thanksgiving, so naturally that was the best part of my week), but the trailer is still awesome.

I give you that to give you this: In honor of that trailer, Vegas has rolled out one of its patented Jedi mind tricks for Week 13's slate, offering up Cincinnati as only a 3.5-point favorite over the hapless Buccaneers.

Darth Vegas is begging you to take Tampa Bay. He wants you to embrace the darkness (aka spend three hours cursing at the television and throwing things against the wall). He is willing you to wager your hard-earned money on Lovie Smith and Josh McCown.

Don't do it, young Padawan. Don't fall prey to the Dark Side.

The Bengals are going to absolutely paste the Buccaneers. Why? Because Tampa Bay stinks and Cincinnati is good. It's that simple.

May the Force be with you, yo.

The Pick: Cincinnati (-3.5)

Arizona at Atlanta

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

The Line: Arizona at Atlanta (+2.5)

If this game were a movie, it would be titled The Arizona Cardinals Receive No Respect from Vegas: Part II after the original was released last week.

Now, it did turn out that the Cardinals weren't worthy of respect last week, losing 19-3 in Seattle as a touchdown underdog. Out of all the bad bets I've made this year (and there are too many to count), I think that's the one I'm most frustrated about. As soon as I saw Drew Stanton throwing wounded ducks at the Legion of Boom, I knew it was a wrap. The game was over before it started.

But Vegas was nice enough to give Cardinals backers a shot at redemption. Do you really mean to tell me that the Cardinals are less than a field-goal favorite in Atlanta—against a Falcons team that can't beat anyone outside its own horrendous division? Give me a break.

And even if the Falcons find themselves with a shot to win at the end, it's likely that coach Mike Smith will find a way to screw it up. That's why you cannot wager your hard-earned money on Atlanta.

The Pick: Arizona (-2.5)

New England at Green Bay

Anonymous/Associated Press

The Line: New England at Green Bay (-3)

This is one of those games that falls under the umbrella of me picking the home team because the two teams are so evenly matched.

If this game were in New England, I'd absolutely take the Patriots. But it's in Green Bay, so I have to roll with the homie Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

I know that Bill Belichick and the Patriots have an almost supernatural ability (get over it, Spygate truthers) to take away what the opposing team does best, but when the opposing team employs Rodgers, that pretty much goes out the window.

Rodgers has too many weapons on offense, and the Packers are playing too well to falter at home. I respect the hell out of the Patriots, but they won't win this game.

Give me Green Bay to win with confidence and expect a huge performance from Eddie Lacy in the victory.

The Pick: Green Bay (-3)

Sunday Night Football: Denver at Kansas City

Ben Margot/Associated Press

The Line: Denver at Kansas City (+1.5)

The Denver Broncos are coming off a huge win in a game seen by most around the country, beating the Dolphins in come-from-behind fashion.

The Kansas City Chiefs' last game was a nationally televised defeat at the hands of the previously winless Raiders.

Denver is most certainly a "public" team, featuring star quarterback Peyton Manning.

Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith is less respected than immortal curmudgeon Rodney Dangerfield.

The Broncos are 1.5-point favorites, and everyone and their mother likes them to cover.

I'm going to stop laughing now...

The Pick: Kansas City (+1.5)

Monday Night Football: Miami at NY Jets

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

The Line: Miami at NY Jets (+7)

One of my favorite gambling subplots is the self-flagellation that occurs when you take a team that you think is terrible because the circumstances dictate that you do so.

You're guaranteed to spend the three hours of game time waiting—nay, expecting—disaster to strike. Every single play strikes fear into your heart. Every pass is going to be intercepted, and every idiot carries the ball as if inviting the opposition to strip him of it. It's really not a fun way to live.

That is, of course, until that team covers the spread and you win money, because that's what the circumstances dictate will happen.

Look: I have almost no faith in the New York Jets. I stupidly took them last week against Buffalo, and I turned the game off at 753-3 (that might be an exaggeration, but only slightly). The Jets are finished, and Rex Ryan might as well be an extra on The Walking Dead. 

But the fact that the Dolphins—who pushed the Broncos to the limit last Sunday—are a touchdown favorite, on the road, in prime time, against a Jets team that just got embarrassed by the Bills, causes the ol' antennae to be raised.

I hate myself for doing this. I know Monday night is going to be an exercise in frustration.

That is, of course, until the Jets find a way to cover the spread.

The Pick: NY Jets (+7)

Surefire Locks of the Week

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

Best Bets of the Week Against the Spread

1. Cincinnati (-3.5 at Tampa Bay)
2. Kansas City (+1.5 vs. Denver)
3. Washington (+9.5 at Indianapolis)
4. Green Bay (-3 vs. New England)
5. San Francisco (-1 vs. Seattle)—Thursday night, given on Twitter during week

Best "Under" Bets of the Week

1. New England at Green Bay (under 58 points)
2. Oakland at St. Louis (under 42 points)

Best "Over" Bets of the Week

1. Cleveland at Buffalo (over 42 points)
2. Cincinnati at Tampa Bay (over 44 points)

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Love the picks? Hate them? Tweet Nick here and let him know!