NFL Picks: Week 13 Against the Spread (Street Smarts vs. Book Smarts)

As a football fan, there's a lot to be thankful for this time of year.

As a fan of any team in the NFC South, you're thankful that every other team in your division stinks as badly as yours does. 

As a fan of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans or Oakland Raiders, et al., you're thankful that the season's juuuust about over. 

As a fan of Robert Griffin III, you're thankful that you're still the billionaire owner of the Washington Redskins. 

And, as a writer of an NFL gambling column on the world's most popular sports website, I'm thankful that I didn't put my money where my picks were last week.

Yes, Mr. Book Smarts, professional bettor and founder of Big Time Sharps and The Davis Equation, Professor Bill Davis, made my "Street Smarts" goose egg look even worse with three picks in his favor to boot. But just like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I'm still not mathematically eliminated, thus keeping my delusional hopes alive.  

(Considering that my "Tweet me for your picks" challenge fell upon deaf ears this week, I'll be blaming you, the reader, if my predictions crash and burn once again. So I guess I'm thankful for convenient scapegoats, too!)

So, as we work on digesting our Thanksgiving feast (and I lick off the gravy and wounds from a turkey of a showing last week), let's chew on the following matchups, with lines courtesy of ESPN.com: 

Last Week

Davis: 3 correct picks

Glauser: A big, fat zero

Total

Davis: 9 correct picks

Glauser: 5 correct picks

Davis Pick No. 1: New York Giants (-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images

"The battle between two of the worst teams in the NFL only raises one question: Who is worse? Even though Jacksonville is slightly better than New York defensively, the Blake Bortles-led offense is much worse than the Eli Manning-led offense of the Giants."

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the Giants beating the Jags by at least a field goal."

Glauser Pick No. 1: Indianapolis Colts (-10) over Washington Redskins

Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

The Colts have played four games against terrible teams (AKA: three wins or fewer) this season: The Jaguars (twice), the Giants and the Tennessee Titans. They have won each of these matches by an average margin of 22 points. In other words, the Horseshoes take care of business when they’re supposed to.

Pick against the spread: No luck (or Luck) necessary when going up against the sputtering Skins, as Indy should win handily.  

Davis Pick No. 2: Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jamie Sabau/Getty Images

"Which Bengals team will show up this weekend? Will it be the one that beat both Baltimore and New Orleans or the one that could score only three points against the Cleveland Browns? It doesn’t matter this week because they are playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, statistically one of the worst teams in the league." 

Pick against the spread: "The Davis equation has the Bengals defeating the Bucs by more than 3.5."

Glauser Pick No. 2: Carolina Panthers/Minnesota Vikings Total: Under 42.5 Points

Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

Depressing stat of the week (or hopeful stat, if you’re a Carolina fan): The Panthers are winless in their last six—half of them blowouts—and yet find themselves a half-game out of first place. The NFC South might just be the worst division in professional sports history.

As for this game, it’s as good a chance as any for Cam Newton and company to snap the streak and stay in "contention."

Pick against the spread: I keep wondering who the heck is going to score in this one. And considering that 43 total points is at least six separate scoring plays, I feel safe going under.

Davis Pick No. 3: San Diego Chargers/Baltimore Ravens Total: Over 46 Points

Harry How/Getty Images

"Last week, both teams showed that they can put up points. However, are their defenses good enough to stop these two improving offenses? The Davis Equation says no."

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the Chargers and Ravens scoring more than 46 points combined."

Glauser Pick No. 3: Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) over Atlanta Falcons

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Hey, check it out! It’s a battle between division leaders in this critical match—

(I’m sorry. I couldn’t even keep a straight face as I typed that.)

The reality is, it shouldn’t matter if Drew Stanton is quarterbacking Arizona or Drew Barrymore. Two losses to last year’s Super Bowl contestants notwithstanding, the Cards seem to have this team-of-destiny thing going right now, and a grossly underachieving squad that could likely finish the season 5-11 isn’t going to stop them.

Pick against the spread: For their second straight game, this seems to be a Vegas line daring us to pick to pick the Falcons. But fool me once…and shame on me if Atlanta beats its first opponent with a winning record this week.

Davis Pick No. 4: Denver Broncos (-1.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

"Arrowhead Stadium is notorious for being one of the most famous home-field advantages in the NFL. That may explain the narrow money line in this game. But is it actually an advantage? The Chiefs have won only four out of their last eight at home and 13 out of their last 30. Meanwhile, the Broncos statistically are the far superior team." 

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the Broncos defeating the Chiefs by at least a couple points on Sunday night."

Glauser Pick No. 4: New England Patriots (+3) over Green Bay Packers

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and Co. are in one of their zones again. They are fresh off three straight annihilations of three very good teams, and the last time the media began to write them off just happened to be the last time the Pats lost—two months ago.

Pick against the spread: Yes, the Packers are playing well, too. Yes, the Frozen Tundra this time of year is awfully tough for opponents. No, I still won’t bet against New England, especially when it's clicking like this, and especially when the players have added bulletin-board material of being underdogs when they haven’t been defeated since September.

All quotes from Bill Davis obtained firsthand.

Follow Jeff Glauser on Twitter: @Jeff_Glauser.