Duke Basketball: Preview and Prediction for Showdown with Wisconsin

The Madness may have to wait until March, but one of the best games in the entire 2014-15 college basketball season takes place Wednesday when the red-hot Duke Blue Devils travel to the Kohl Center in Madison to take on the Wisconsin Badgers.

Not only is it a matchup between two Top Five teams, but it is the anchor game in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Don’t underestimate the importance of conference pride in this one, as the Big Ten and ACC are two of the best leagues in the country. Whichever conference wins the Challenge will have bragging rights and a solid boost on Selection Sunday.

Duke may have the best roster in the country this side of Lexington, but this will be a major test.

Tim Aylen/Associated Press

One thing to watch is how the young Blue Devils handle the noise at the Kohl Center. There are few stadiums in the entire country as loud and daunting as this for almost any opponent, and it is sure to be rocking when Duke comes to town.

For as talented as players like Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow are, they have not played in a true road game in front of a raucous crowd like this in their young college careers. Don’t be surprised if the youngsters press in a few tight moments and commit untimely turnovers. 

Jay Williams, a former Duke player and current ESPN broadcaster, seemed to be leaning toward the Badgers when deciding who would win this game, largely because of the incredible home-court advantage that the Kohl Center will create against the Blue Devils:

As an extension of that youth theme, this will be a test between experience and freshmen. Wisconsin brought back Frank Kaminsky, Josh Gasser, Traevon Jackson, Nigel Hayes, Sam Dekker and Bronson Koenig from its Final Four run. They are six major contributors who have battled in Big Ten play and postseason tournaments throughout their careers.

The Blue Devils certainly have some experience in Rasheed Sulaimon, Amile Jefferson and Quinn Cook, but the freshmen play the most important role.

Again, don’t be surprised if the freshmen make a few mistakes against the experienced Badgers in a hostile environment.

In terms of individual matchups, it doesn’t get much better than Okafor vs. Kaminsky. The two big men could compete for All-American status later in the season, and a head-to-head win for either could help his case. The big-man battle will also go a long way toward determining the outcome of this game. 

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Okafor is arguably the best low-post scorer in the country and is a beast to handle down low, while Kaminsky stretches the defense with a solid three-point stroke. Kaminsky is also a capable scorer and rebounder on the blocks, but he can neutralize some of Okafor’s effectiveness if he forces the Duke center away from the basket with his outside shot.

If Kaminsky is draining threes, Okafor will have to venture outside of the paint, which will open up offensive rebounding for the Badgers.

Another critical individual matchup to watch is the one between Dekker and Winslow. Both small forwards are future NBA players, but Winslow’s tenacious defense could be the difference in who plays better.

Andy Manis/Associated Press

Winslow’s lateral speed, athleticism, shot-blocking prowess and ability to force turnovers and convert them into transition opportunities on the other end should give Dekker problems all game.

Kaminsky may generate most of the headlines from Wisconsin, and rightfully so, but Dekker is a critical part of the offense as someone who can score from anywhere on the floor and attack the rim off the dribble. If Winslow can slow him down, it would go a long way toward disrupting Wisconsin’s attack.

Interestingly, Duke already played one game that may give us an insight into how this one will ultimately unfold.

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

While it may be simplifying things a bit to point to Duke’s early-season battle with Michigan State as a primer for the Wisconsin game simply because the Spartans and Badgers are both in the Big Ten, there is something to be learned from that contest.

Although the Blue Devils controlled the pace for 40 minutes and the outcome was never really in doubt, Michigan State battled down low and actually outrebounded Duke by a 35-25 margin. What’s more, the Spartans grabbed 13 offensive rebounds, which is something Duke cannot afford to let happen in the Kohl Center.

While the rebounding, or potential lack thereof, from Duke is something of a concern based on that Michigan State game, the Blue Devils’ perimeter defense was very encouraging.

Andy Manis/Associated Press

The Spartans shot an abysmal 25 percent from three-point range, largely because Duke was suffocating on the outside. Almost every time a Michigan State player looked to launch a long-range shot, there was an outstretched Blue Devils hand right in his face.

If Duke brings that same type of defensive intensity Wednesday but mixes in a few more rebounds, it could win on the back of its defense alone.

However, the fact that this one is in Madison will be the ultimate deciding factor. The crowd will inspire a few extended Badgers’ runs that will prove to be the difference in an otherwise tightly contested game. 

Prediction: Wisconsin 78, Duke 71

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