Making the Call on Week 13's Toughest Fantasy Lineup Decisions

Thanksgiving is over, the leftovers are put away and Turkey Day football is now a tryptophan-induced dream of the past. 

The NFL steams on toward a packed slate of Sunday games, however, and fantasy leagues enter what should be the final week of the regular season. On the bubble? Need some advice on some tough lineup decisions? 

You've come to the right place.

Start: John Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals

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The past couple of weeks have been a bit rough for fantasy owners of John Brown.

The Arizona Cardinals receiver hasn't quite kept up with his rookie peers in recent games thanks in part to a season-ending injury to starting quarterback Carson Palmer. Having to face two of the better defenses in the league hasn't helped, either.

The latter problem shouldn't be an issue this week as the Cardinals host the Atlanta Falcons. 

That would be the same Falcons who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers this season, as opposed to the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions, who are the first- and third-stingiest defenses in that category, respectively. 

Brown is a home run threat, to be sure, but he has become an integral part of the Arizona offense regardless of his stature. He should see plenty of targets, and he could pop a big one for a touchdown like he's done a couple of times already this season.

Fantasy Prediction: Six receptions, 125 yards, one TD

Final Verdict: Brown has a nice matchup against the Falcons. Don't bench him because of the past couple of weeks.

Flex Only: Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers

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It seems like Kelvin Benjamin is a slam-dunk starter this week, right? After all, he is enjoying a Rookie of the Year campaign—though he will need to fight off some serious competition to get there—as the No. 1 receiver for quarterback Cam Newton.

Upon closer inspection for Week 13, however, you might want to tread lightly.

For starters, the Panthers offense simply hasn't been very good this season. Up until the fourth quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at home, Carolina had put up just three points. 

Benjamin eventually caught a touchdown pass in spectacular fashion en route to a near-victory, but it was just a downer of a performance overall against a bad defense.

This week, the Panthers get a good defense, one that has improved as the season has worn on—the Minnesota Vikings.

That defense has given up the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing receivers over the past five weeks, and it just got done shutting down the Green Bay Packers receiving corps from a fantasy perspective.

Benjamin should still be in lineups everywhere, given he should still garner plenty of targets. There may be some better options on your bench, however, and they are well worth exploring.

Fantasy Prediction: Four receptions, 70 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: This isn't the best matchup for Benjamin, whose entire offense might struggle around him.

Start: Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants

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He had a big game against the Dallas Cowboys last week, and Eli Manning is primed to blow up again this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The New York Giants quarterback got some of his mojo back against one of his division rivals, and he might get even more this week against a woeful opponent.

Granted, the Jaguars harassed Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck into four fumbles—two lost—and a generally disappointing fantasy day last week, but Luck also missed some opportunities, including an easy, long touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne that would have made his day much better.

The Giants defense also isn't exactly the Colts—expect the Jaguars to score more than three points, meaning the Giants may not be in "kill the clock" mode early in the second half.

Oh, and it helps that Manning now has a new BFF in stud rookie receiver Odell Beckham Jr. The Giants signal-caller raved about Beckham following his 10-catch, 146-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 12, per ESPN.com's Dan Graziano:

"

He's a little bit different type of receiver than we have had. He has that explosiveness coming out of breaks, that speed. Getting down the field, the catch ability -- he catches the ball very naturally. Obviously, the big hands. He is a pretty rare combination of speed and explosiveness, with also really good route-running and being able to stop on a dime as well out of his breaks.

"

The Jaguars are next in line to roast.

Fantasy Prediction: 23-of-35, 275 yards, two TDs, one INT

Final Verdict: It's such a good matchup for Eli Manning that it's hard to pass up.

Sit: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

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The Carolina offense isn't in very good shape this season. Who could have guessed that would happen, what with the exodus at wide receiver or the complete avoidance of the left tackle position after Jordan Gross retired.

Quarterback Cam Newton has been under assault from opposing defenses, which has impacted his ability to make plays. He has looked injured at times, too, a worrisome appearance after his offseason ankle surgery and broken rib.

This week, Newton travels to Minnesota to face a Vikings defense that hasn't been terribly generous to opposing quarterbacks this season, one that just held Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers to mere mortal levels last week.

It might behoove you to find a better option, perhaps someone like Eli Manning or Alex Smith. Here is what Brandon Niles of 4for4.com had to say about Newton this week: 

"

This week, Cam faces a Vikings defense that has been above average this season, allowing about 22 points and 342 total yards per game to opponents. The Panthers will be hoping to put it together following the bye week and the Vikings seem like a good team to get back on track. He’s been too disappointing to give him a rousing recommendation, but Cam is a nice low-end QB1 with upside this week as Carolina tries to right the ship.

"

The upside might be too much to pass up entirely, even if it's a less-than-ideal situation. But the downside is pretty bleak.

Fantasy Prediction: 19-of-30, 185 yards, one TD, one INT; six carries, 55 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: With a bad matchup and a sputtering offense, avoid Newton if you can.

Start: Tre Mason, RB, St. Louis Rams

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It has become abundantly clear who the lead dog is in the St. Louis backfield.

Rookie running back Tre Mason has reprised Zac Stacy's role as the midseason workhorse, which makes sense given he is the best running back on the roster right now. 

Mason has seen the most carries on the team in each of the past six weeks, including 29 of them just two weeks ago against the Denver Broncos. He should have another healthy dose of touches against the Oakland Raiders in Week 13.

The Rams are favored by nearly a touchdown this week, and an early lead could mean Mason is in for an even bigger workload than usual. He will get that workload against a Raiders defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, to boot.

Fantasy Prediction: 20 attempts, 95 yards, one TD; two receptions, 20 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: Mason finally has the benefit of a great matchup to go along with his potential.

Flex Only: LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots

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A little birdie told you to avoid Jonas Gray last week, and all he did was put up a big fat goose egg. 

Of course, at the time of that writing, we didn't even know that Gray was about to oversleep and miss practice, but we did know we were dealing with head coach Bill Belichick.

The capricious head coach of the New England Patriots gave Gray's workload to the prodigal son, LeGarrette Blount, as a gift to celebrate his return to the team. It was as though Belichick clothed Blount in his best hoodie and Super Bowl ring. 

Blount only carried the ball 12 times against the Detroit Lions, but he made the most of those touches by notching 78 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the top-ranked run defense in the league.

If you think there's more of that coming, hold your horses—remember that bit about Belichick being capricious? 

Gray's time in the doghouse might be short-lived, meaning he could be back this week to garner a significant workload. Even if he doesn't, it could be the Shane Vereen Show in Green Bay.

Proceed with caution.

Fantasy Prediction: 10 attempts, 50 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: Blount is guaranteed nothing, so you might want to look for a more reliable option.

Start: Charles Clay, TE, Miami Dolphins

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This one depends on health, but it seems like Charles Clay is on his way to playing in Week 13.

The Miami Dolphins tight end will be going up against a horrendous New York Jets pass defense, one that has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has spread the ball around this year, so Clay may not get a ton of targets. Still, the matchup is nice enough to warrant fantasy attention, especially with how wonky the tight end position has been in recent weeks.

Fantasy Prediction: Five receptions, 75 yards, one TD

Final Verdict: Tannehill and Clay might hook up several times this week against a bad Jets pass defense, and a touchdown is a decent bet.

Start: Alex Smith, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

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The last time Alex Smith faced the Denver Broncos, he attempted 42 passes.

Of course, he only completed 26 of them for 255 yards and zero touchdowns, but a greater volume of passes is generally better in the fantasy realm. It also didn't help matters that stud running back Jamaal Charles was knocked out of the game early with an ankle injury.

The Chiefs did try to control the clock and keep Peyton Manning off the field, as has been the modus operandi of many teams attempting to limit the Broncos offense.

Manning and Co. will more than likely put up a ton of points, as they are wont to do, which may mean another healthy dose of Smith passing attempts, regardless of a desire to slow things down. 

He's also going up against a defense that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game—and sixth-most over the past five weeks—to opposing signal-callers this season, somewhat due to the fact opposing teams have had to play catch-up.

Fantasy Prediction: 22-of-36, 250 yards, two TDs; four carries, 40 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: It's unlikely the Chiefs defense shuts the Broncos offense down to the point where Smith will be handing off the ball more often than not.

Start: Jerick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota Vikings

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Like with Tre Mason, it has become abundantly clear who the top back is for the Minnesota Vikings. That would be rookie Jerick McKinnon, who has also handily led the team in carries over the past six weeks.

Of course, with Matt Asiata likely back from a concussion and Ben Tate in the fold for another week, McKinnon's upside might be a bit limited. But this is an excellent matchup for the diminutive running back.

He will need to be on the field for this to come to fruition, naturally, which might be problematic come Sunday if he continues to miss practice due to a back issue. He sat out both Wednesday and Thursday, per Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Keep an eye on his status Friday and over the weekend, but if he is a full go, start him with confidence. The Vikings are facing a Carolina Panthers defense that has given up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season.

Fantasy Prediction: 14 attempts, 70 yards, one TD; four receptions, 40 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: Watch his injury status through the rest of the week, but there is cautious optimism that McKinnon has a nice game on Sunday. Perhaps he will even score that elusive touchdown.

Sit: Dan Herron and Trent Richardson, RB, Indianapolis Colts

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The Indianapolis backfield is a fantasy disaster.

Sure, Trent Richardson wound up scoring a touchdown last week as Dan Herron—who got the surprise start—looked effective at times.

This week might seem like a nice matchup as the Colts travel to Washington, but it could be a trap—the Washington football team has only allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season.

Now, the Colts could do what they were supposed to do last week and get a big lead early, which would let them feed Richardson or Herron plenty in the second half. That would give both ball-carriers more opportunity to score fantasy points, naturally.

Even so, neither of these guys has proven to be particularly palatable fantasy options, and that matchup indicates you should look another way.

Richardson Prediction: 14 attempts, 50 yards, zero TDs; two receptions, 20 yards, zero TDs

Herron Prediction: 12 attempts, 40 yards, zero TDs; one reception, 15 yards, zero TDs

Final Verdict: What seemed like a good idea last week turned out to be a bad one. Don't start either of these guys just because they might get some more touches in garbage time.

All fantasy statistics and rankings courtesy of FFToday.com. All odds courtesy of OddsShark.com.

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