Jets' Inability to Self-Scout a Major Reason for Team's Downfall

There are countless reasons as to why the New York Jets find themselves in possession of a 2-9 record that is somehow even more embarrassing than it seems, whether it be missed draft picks or questionable levels of preparation. 

The Jets, however, are as bad scouting the players in their own backyard as they are at players on different teams. Annually missing on their own player evaluations has put them miles behind the competition without them ever realizing it.

As much as many experts were wrong on their season predictions for the Jets, no one whiffed harder on evaluating the Jets' talent than the Jets. 

Coming off an 8-8 season, general manager John Idzik figured that only an incremental improvement to a few positions would be able to bring them up to a playoff-contending level. This approach makes plenty of sense—the problem was, the Jets were nowhere near as good as their 8-8 record in 2013 indicated they were. 

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In reality, the 2013 Jets had no business of ever approaching a .500 record. Only six teams were worse than their minus-97 point differential. A Dallas Morning News study (h/t ESPN.com) pinned them as the single healthiest team in the NFL. 

In the best possible conditions, the Jets were mediocre. Under "normal" conditions, the Jets were, in actuality, a lot closer to the embarrassment that has become of the 2014 squad. As a result, Idzik and the rest of the Jets brass thought far too highly of their below-average team.

Their self-scouting issues are most easily highlighted by their woes in the secondary. With just three solid games under his belt from his rookie season, they counted on the oft-injured Dee Milliner to emerge as some type of shutdown corner in his sophomore season. He was placed on IR barely a month into the season. 

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There was no need to fret, as the Jets had a solution for him: a rookie third-round pick who had missed the majority of his senior season at Maryland with a shoulder injury. Dexter McDougle was on IR before the Jets played a game that counted. Before Halloween, the Jets found themselves counting on former undrafted free agent Darrin Walls to play as the team's No. 1 defensive back for the remainder of the season. 

As much as they miscalculated how good they were in the secondary, their supposedly elite defensive line gave them some room for error, at least in theory. Somehow, the Jets even managed to overrate what was supposed to be the strength of their team, as this supposedly "great" unit currently ranks 12th in total sacks. 

The Quinton Coples experiment at linebacker has hardly played out as well as the Jets expected. The former first-round pick from 2012 has churned out a grand total of three sacks on the season while losing playing time to a 34-year-old Jason Babin. 

With a defense that ranks dead last in scoring, the Jets can no longer lean on their defensive dominance as they did in year's past.

Whether it be by ignorance or stubbornness, the Jets refused to believe struggling guard Brian Winters, a third-round pick in 2013 (making the transition from tackle to guard), may not be up for the task. Placed on IR following Week 6, Winters ranks 72 out of 79 among all guards, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

The only "competition" that was brought in for Winters was Dakota Dozier, a fifth-round project who has yet to find his way off the inactive list this season. 

Where Idzik and the Jets' irresponsible overrating of their roster hit hardest was in the passing game at the quarterback, wide receiver and tight end positions. 

In fairness, the Jets had plenty of reason to give Geno Smith another shot to prove he can be their long-term starter, but how they expected a 24-year-old passer to be success in an offense with as little weaponry as any team in football is mind-blowing.

Signing Eric Decker certainly gave their receiving corps a boost, but this was a team that was starved for an entire overhaul to their pass-catchers. Instead, the Jets held out hope that their two fourth-round picks could compete with last year's leftovers to somehow improve the roster.

The fate of the Jets passing game was depending on fourth-round rookies, waiver-wire pickups and leftovers from other team's practice squads to play a vital role in the Jets' passing game. Oh, in case you forgot, they were trying to develop a 24-year-old quarterback along the way. 

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Rounding out their self-scouting ineptitude was how highly they thought of tight end Jeff Cumberland. The one-way tight end never eclipsed the 400-yard mark in his career, but that did not stop the Jets from handing him an extension soon after the start of the free-agency period.  

Instead of rewarding the Jets' faith in his "ability," Cumberland has responded with the worst season as a non-special teamer, totaling just 16 receptions on the season and seeing his reception average drop to 9.9 yards. 

Don't worry, the Jets brought in a "playmaker" at the running back position, Chris Johnson, to make up for it. Without Johnson, how else could the Jets have replaced Bilal Powell's 4.6 yards per carry from 2013 with a lesser 4.3 average?

Stepping back, it is more difficult to find players on their own roster the Jets have managed to "get right" than to weed out mistakes. Just about the only players the Jets have in their proper roles performing at a high level are the few superstars they have on the team, such as Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and Nick Mangold. 

Missing on draft prospects and free agents is something every team falls victim to. Completely whiffing on scouting reports of players in one's own building is inexcusable at the rate the Jets have done.  

As poorly as the Jets have performed in the draft and free agency under this current regime, many of their mistakes stem from their massive miscalculation of talent they have on the roster. When a team overrates their talent by this great of a margin, mistakes are bound to happen throughout the spring months when new rosters are forged. 

Advanced statistics provided by ProFootballFocus.com (subscription required).