NBA Rookie Ladder: How the Top Contenders Stack Up in Mid-November
The 2014 Rookie of the Year race isn't quite going the way we thought it would around this time last season. Injuries have really played a role in that, with Marcus Smart, Julius Randle and Aaron Gordon each going down early. It doesn't help that Joel Embiid remains out as well.
That's four of the top seven 2014 picks who've either missed or will continue to miss significant time. However, there have been a few surprises, while we've seen plenty of promise flashed by some of the top dogs in the class.
These rankings are based on how each rookie is performing in 2014-15—not their long-term potential. It's possible that No. 7 on our board is a better prospect than No. 3. But at this point, we're only evaluating these rookies as current NBA players.
10. Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic
1 of 10
The Orlando Magic threw 20-year-old Elfrid Payton right into the mix despite having spent the last three seasons playing in the Sun Belt Conference, and the adjustment process has gotten to him. Payton has really struggled to score, something that came easy to him at Louisiana-Lafayette where he was dropping 19.2 points a game.
Shooting just 36 percent from the field, Payton's perimeter game is lacking big time, as he's made only one three-pointer playing 24.3 minutes a night. But it's his defense and floor game that have earned him a spot on the mid-November ladder. He leads all rookies in assists with 5.1 a game, as he's shown a decent feel as a setup man in the half court.
Payton looks the part, though he'll need to make some offensive strides over the next few weeks to hold his position on our top-10 board.
9. Kostas Papanikolaou, Houston Rockets
2 of 10
A New York Knicks' draft pick back in 2012 who's had his rights traded twice while being stashed abroad, Kostas Papanikolaou has given the Rockets some unexpected rookie production.
He's been a little up and down, but Papanikolaou is hot at the moment after finishing with 19 points and six boards against the Lakers on Nov. 19. A jack-of-all-trades type of contributor, he does a little bit of everything offensively, from shooting and driving to passing.
He's actually ranked No. 2 in assists among rookies so far and second in three-pointers made per game. Papanikolaou is more of a glue guy than anything else, but he sure looks the part of an NBA role player.
8. Shabazz Napier, Miami Heat
3 of 10
Shabazz Napier's minutes are on the rise, and so is his name up the rookie ladder after he scored a career-high 17 points on Nov. 20 against the Clippers. He's now hit double figures in each of his last four games.
Napier has his limitations, but his quickness off the dribble and shot-making ability from the perimeter have kept defenses on their toes. He hasn't shot the ball to the best of his ability—Napier is 10 of 29 from downtown, but his pull-ups in the mid-range have been steady.
Though Napier's decision-making as a point guard could use work, it's the offensive firepower he's capable of providing off the bench that really drives his value. He'll continue to have his ups and downs, but if his role increases, look for his comfort level and production to do the same.
7. Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers
4 of 10
Nerlens Noel has had some good days and some bad ones early on, though he's got a few valid excuses to work with. After sitting out 18 months following a torn ACL in college, Noel's first NBA experience is with a team that has minimal talent to play off.
He's averaging 6.6 points, 6.0 boards and 1.3 blocks in 28.1 minutes per game. His 42.3 percent field-goal clip is disappointing, though feel free to place some of the blame on a lack of setup men and playmakers in the lineup. At this stage, he's just not very adept in terms of creating his own shot.
However, there's no doubting his athleticism or what it might be capable of translating into down the road. And while looking through a glass half-full, he had a career-high 17 points and 12 boards versus the Knicks on Nov. 22.
He's shown some promise as a face-up weapon who can attack off a dribble or two and finish with a running hook or layup. Noel is a bit lower on the ladder at this point than we initially projected he'd be, but if there's anyone who's going to make a major jump by the end of the year, my money is on him.
6. K.J. McDaniels, Philadelphia 76ers
5 of 10
Left for the Philadelphia 76ers in June's second round, K.J. McDaniels has emerged as one of the early 2014 steals. If you've watched him at Clemson, it shouldn't be any surprise as to what's driving his effectiveness as a pro.
McDaniels is a really unique defender, having led the ACC in blocks last year standing 6'6", and those instincts have translated. Despite playing mostly 2-guard in Philadelphia, he's currently tied for the lead among rookies in blocks, many of which are of the highlight variety.
Offensively, McDaniels is shooting the ball well, given the struggles he's had in college. He's hit 13 of 35 three-point attempts (37.1 percent) on the year—a number his coaches will need McDaniels to sustain in order for him to make up for a lack of offensive creativity.
Chances are we'll see plenty of inconsistency from McDaniels throughout the year, but his early two-way production has been strong enough to land him on the ladder.
5. Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic
6 of 10
Prior to breaking a bone in his foot that's expected to cost him an extended period of time, Aaron Gordon was leading all rookies in Player Efficiency Rating. We're not going to let an injury take away from what he's done and the promise he's flashed.
One of those guys who only takes the good shots that find him in the offense, Gordon remained efficient while playing to his strengths as a slasher and finisher. He was shooting 58.1 percent from the field before going down, even making four of his first eight three-point attempts.
Defensively, we saw a little bit of the versatility that's ultimately going to factor into his long-term value. So far, the highlight of his season came in a win over the Minnesota Timberwolves that saw him score 17 points, including a few big ones down the stretch to seal the victory, along with six boards and two blocks.
It might be a while before we see Gordon back in game action again, but given the underwhelming play of most rookies in the class, we'll start him off at No. 5 on the board until someone else nudges their way in.
4. Dante Exum, Utah Jazz
7 of 10
If only there were an opening in Utah's lineup that would allow Dante Exum more playing time and freedom. He's really done a nice job of picking his spots as a facilitator, attacker and shooter.
Exum's spot at No. 4 on our board is based purely on performance over production. His numbers aren't big, given his role, but he's eliminated any questions surrounding his natural position. While operating with a true point guard's mentality, he's shown a strong feel as a passer and decision-maker, averaging 2.8 assists (recorded five assists five different times) to 1.1 turnovers a game.
Exum has looked good operating both as a pick-and-roll ball-handler and drive-and-disher, and he's shooting the ball better than expected from the perimeter, where he's connected on 12 of his first 36 three-point attempts.
Offensively, the big hole in his game at the moment is in the mid-range; eventually he'll need to add the pull-up to his arsenal. But at 19 years old and 6'6" with world-class athleticism, Exum's upside at the position is enormous. And quite frankly, he's made Trey Burke seem fairly expendable.
3. Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets
8 of 10
Bojan Bogdanovic, who's been stashed overseas for the past few years, has entered mid-November as the NBA's second-leading rookie scorer. I can't say I saw that one coming, but his offensive versatility stands out game after game, given his ability to handle the ball, shoot and create his own shot in the mid-range or post.
Prior to hitting a cold streak in his last two games, he scored 41 total points on 15 of 27 shooting from the field and 8 of 16 from downtown in the two prior. He doesn't have the upside of guys like Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker or Dante Exum, but that shouldn't bother the Nets, who've found themselves a solid rotational forward with valuable high-level international experience.
The fact that he's already 25 years old, ready to play, and on a deal that pays him roughly $3 million a year until 2017 only enhances his value to the franchise.
2. Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves
9 of 10
We haven't quite seen the consistency from Andrew Wiggins, which might have something to do with Ricky Rubio being out and Minnesota's abundance of 2-guards and wings, but his 11.0-point-per-game average, defense and superstar flashes have held enough weight.
Offensively, Wiggins has been impressive in the mid-to-long range. Between the pull-up and step-back jumper—shots he's creating for himself—along with the spot-up off the ball, Wiggins is delivering. And with a lane to attack, we've seen him explode off the bounce thanks to that lightning first step.
Defensively, he's made a few plays that highlight his lockdown potential driven by that pestering blend of lateral quickness, size and length. Hopefully as the season rolls along, Wiggins' usage rate and confidence start rising. A broken wrist to Kevin Martin might help, evidenced by his 29-point explosion versus the Kings on Nov. 22.
He still offers the most long-term upside of any rookie, but he'll likely enter December No. 2 on our present-day ladder.
1. Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks
10 of 10
Jabari Parker is the first rookie to heat up and string together significant offensive consistency. Prior to Nov. 22's dud versus the Wizards, he averaged 15.8 points per game in the four prior, and the team went 3-1.
While his long-range shooting is still a work in progress, his mid-range game has picked up, and he continues to finish around the basket. At 6'8" with a wide 235-pound frame, Parker has the body to bang down low and the elusiveness off the bounce that makes him a tough face-up cover for most guys his size.
He's easily the most polished rookie out there, from his physical tools and skill set to his basketball IQ. Parker has now scored in double figures in nine of his first 14 games played, and without question he'll be sitting atop our rookie ladder as December rapidly approaches.
