Stock Watch for College Basketball Stars After 1st Few Games of 2014-15
It's still early in the 2014-15 college basketball season, so it's unreasonable to expect everyone to have the kinks worked out. Still, change is the only constant in collegiate sports, from changing rosters to changing roles, and some of the game's stars appear to be handling what's new better than others.
The following 10 players carried some burden of expectation into the new season, and for every one whose play is trending upward, there's another who's showing signs of struggle.
Which players are we bullish on at this preliminary stage, and which ones face a bear market?
Up: Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin
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Wisconsin had a couple of tune-up games before the dangerous Green Bay Phoenix rolled into the Kohl Center. Frank Kaminsky was dominant in the pastings of Northern Kentucky and Chattanooga, and even more so against the in-state rival.
Kaminsky not only racked up his third double-double in as many games, but he flirted with the ever-elusive triple-double by carding 20 points, 15 rebounds and seven blocks against Green Bay. He just missed getting posterized by 5'11" Green Bay guard Keifer Sykes—a moment that led to a bromantic Twitter exchange—but otherwise, Kaminsky was every bit the All-American candidate he's purported to be.
The double-double string ended in UW's 78-54 pasting of Boise State, but Kaminsky was still a force. He potted 26 points on 11-of-13 shooting, including 4-of-5 from deep.
There is not a big man in America—and yes, that includes Jahlil Okafor—who's been as dominant as Kaminsky in the early games of this season. Wherever he is on the court, he's the most fearsome threat a defense can face.
Down: Terran Petteway, Nebraska
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Terran Petteway's season numbers look great: 21.0 PPG, 40 percent from three-point range. But look closer.
Two strong games against Northern Kentucky and Central Arkansas were merely precursors for Nebraska's first taste of real competition. Considering the opponent was budding Atlantic 10 contender Rhode Island, most of Big Red's newfound bandwagon fans probably still wouldn't consider that "real" competition.
They should now, as Nebraska slumped to a 66-62 defeat at the hands (horns?) of the Rams. Petteway played no small part in that disappointing result by shooting 5-of-18 from the floor—1-of-7 from three-point land—and committing eight turnovers.
The Huskers' supposed All-American candidate was rendered largely invisible as the game got tight, scoring only six of his 15 points in the game's final 23 minutes, including overtime.
Petteway can be an explosive scorer on any night, but this was not a fine result on his first true test of the season. More games like these will result in Nebraska struggling to reach the sky-high expectations that many predictions have set for it.
Up: Quinn Cook, Duke
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This whole shooting guard thing appears to agree with Duke senior Quinn Cook.
With hotshot freshman Tyus Jones performing very well in Cook's old point guard position, Cook agreed to move to the 2 rather than face a demotion to the bench. As a floor general who never had much reluctance to call his own number, one might suggest that he's been auditioning for this role for three years.
Cook has dropped at least 14 points in each of the Blue Devils' first five games, with his 5-of-12 performance against Stanford in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic title game being his worst percentage of the season so far. His 17 three-point makes are the most in the ACC, and his 7-of-17 accuracy during the CVC Classic was a major reason he was named tournament MVP.
When Jones has struggled, as he did against Stanford (0-of-6 shooting, two assists), Cook's presence alongside has helped pick the rookie up. Cook's handed out at least four assists in four of his five games.
With Duke racking five wins in an eight-day span, freshmen Jones and Jahlil Okafor haven't always dominated as might have been expected. The veteran Cook is used to these flurries of games, and there's little argument that anyone else has been Duke's most valuable player so far.
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Down: Kasey Hill, Florida
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The Florida Gators were grossly overrated entering the season, sitting at No. 7 in both the Associated Press and coaches polls. Even their coach knew it. More reasonable projections were largely ignored.
Everyone, however, expected a lot more out of sophomore point guard Kasey Hill. He showed flashes of brilliance in relief of Scottie Wilbekin last season, but his transition to the starting role has been rocky.
Hill dished eight assists in Florida's loss to in-state rival Miami, but he never found the range with his shot. That situation improved only marginally in a narrow overtime win over Louisiana-Monroe. Hill's 2-of-12 shooting accuracy was his highest percentage in his first three games, and he exacerbated the problem with five turnovers.
There is a great deal of roster turmoil in Gainesville thus far, with forward Dorian Finney-Smith nursing a broken non-shooting hand, senior guard Eli Carter spraining his foot after a strong game against Miami and sophomore big man Chris Walker returning from a season-opening suspension.
The Gators truly kicked it into gear last season when all the pieces were on hand, and that won't happen until after the first semester this year. That's when Duke transfer Alex Murphy joins the team. Until Hill has time to build a comfort level with all of his teammates, Florida can't take any win for granted.
Up: Ryan Boatright, UConn
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Shabazz who?
Ryan Boatright, last seen being manhandled into the right position for an offensive set by Shabazz Napier in the national title game, has taken to Napier's all-around leadership role like a duck to water. Or perhaps like a Husky to snow.
Boatright is leading UConn in scoring, assists and steals while sitting third on the team in rebounding. Most of his usage and efficiency numbers are career bests thus far, with only his three-point accuracy (4-of-16 through four games) lagging.
The worst shooting games of Boatright's 2014-15 campaign so far have been a pair of 6-of-14 days against College of Charleston and West Virginia en route to a Puerto Rico Tip-Off runner-up finish. That's a highly impressive start for a guy who went through multiple lengthy stretches of terrible shooting last season.
The Huskies have enough weapons surrounding Boatright that defenses can't stack up on him. Any fears that he may try to do too much have been unfounded so far, even when UConn fell behind against West Virginia.
More eight-turnover games from players like freshman Daniel Hamilton may shake Boatright's faith momentarily, but coach Kevin Ollie doesn't appear willing to let his point guard freelance. That may be the perfect approach for the Huskies to make another stirring tournament run in March.
Down: Nic Moore, SMU
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While Ryan Boatright hasn't struggled, his chief competitor for American Athletic Conference Player of the Year has had his issues out of the gate.
SMU point guard Nic Moore has averaged 12.8 points and 5.5 assists, numbers that appear decent considering the opposition he's faced early on. Games against Gonzaga and Indiana would test any point guard's ability to manufacture for himself and his team.
For an SMU team that entered the season ranked and is missing primary inside option Markus Kennedy, however, Moore's burden is heavy. He'll need to demonstrate that he can get baskets against opponents closer to Gonzaga's level than Eastern Washington's. Moore's much-needed breakout game—22 points on 6-of-12 shooting—came against EWU. He entered that game shooting below 40 percent.
The Mustangs will certainly dip out of the rankings after the Indiana loss, but perhaps that's what the doctor ordered for Moore and his teammates. A little time under the radar could repair everyone's reputations.
Up: Montrezl Harrell, Louisville
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Louisville's been able to throw it in cruise control, stomping a pair of cupcakes since defeating Minnesota in Puerto Rico. Star forward Montrezl Harrell hasn't had to exert himself too much during that span, playing only 48 minutes against Jacksonville State and Marshall.
His 48 minutes were solid, but nothing compared to the 38 he logged in U of L's win over the Golden Gophers. Harrell racked up 30 points on 9-of-12 shooting, including sinking three three-point baskets. Any expansion of Harrell's perimeter game should be a frightening sign for the Cardinals' new ACC rivals.
He hasn't hit a triple since, and the 9-of-10 foul shooting against Minnesota has given way to a more typical 7-of-12 combined in the last two games. However, the potential is there for Harrell to make himself a threat outside the lane, and the Cardinals have plenty of weak nonconference opponents for him to keep tuning up on.
He'll need to be at that same peak efficiency when the Cards meet Ohio State in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, and he'll need to find ludicrous speed for the Commonwealth civil war against Kentucky.
Down: Kaleb Joseph, Syracuse
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As if we needed validation that Tyler Ennis was a very special leader for the Syracuse Orange, we only have to observe his successor Kaleb Joseph.
Like Ennis, Joseph is forced into the starting role because coach Jim Boeheim has no other options. Syracuse squeaked out a preseason ranking because voters have faith in the 2-3 zone defense and expect that Joseph can do enough to keep the offense viable.
The Orange offense was solid in the games that it should have been—wins over Kennesaw State and Hampton—but stern tests against Cal and Iowa were just that.
Joseph produced his first double-figure scoring game in the loss to Cal, but he also had four turnovers to only three assists. Turnovers were again the story against Iowa. Joseph again coughed the ball up four times, including three of Syracuse's seven in a five-minute stretch that erased a 14-point lead.
Experience will help even out Joseph's results, but those who were expecting him to be as much a prodigy as Ennis are disappointed so far.
Up: Larry Nance Jr., Wyoming
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The Wyoming Cowboys are off to a seriously schizophrenic start, but don't blame it on Larry Nance Jr. The would-be Mountain West contenders started the season off with a close win over Northern Colorado of the Big Sky as Nance racked 21 points and eight rebounds.
Less than a week later, a potential top-25 team from the University of Colorado was held to nine points in the second half as Wyoming rolled to a 56-33 win without pulling down a single offensive rebound. Nance put up only 10 points, but he stuffed all the other columns with five boards, four assists, three steals and four blocks.
Wyoming has only a couple of other major tests before MWC play begins, with games at SMU and Cal coming in early December. Both appear to be winnable, and strong all-around Nance performances in both can only elevate the profile for both team and player.
Down: Siyani Chambers, Harvard
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Against Division I competition this season, Harvard point guard Siyani Chambers has done his team more harm than good. The Crimson's loss to Holy Cross could easily be laid at Chambers' doorstep after he scored all of one point and committed an ugly nine turnovers.
The entire starting lineup was changed out for the follow-up game against Florida Atlantic. Chambers was able to produce five assists and four steals, but his shot was still MIA. He missed six of seven attempts, including all four of his three-point tries.
Defending Ivy League Player of the Year Wesley Saunders is still the star for Harvard, but Chambers is the engine that makes coach Tommy Amaker's offense hum. This season's team badly misses departed veterans Brandyn Curry and Laurent Rivard, and there's not much quality depth on hand behind Chambers.
For better or worse, the Crimson are stuck with Chambers. There shouldn't be any reason to expect that he won't get better, but most of his past shaky games have come against major-conference opposition, not Patriot League members like Holy Cross.
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