7 Breakout NBA Players Who Nobody Saw Coming
We see guys break out every season, and for the most part, there are warning signs. You knew Anthony Davis would erupt this year. It's not that surprising Derrick Favors has emerged as a monster inside or that Klay Thompson has become one of the game's elite scorers.
But some guys seemingly come out of nowhere.
These are the young players who nobody would have predicted would take giant steps in 2014-15. They're not All-Stars, but they've each made huge strides so far toward becoming one.
Dennis Schroder, Atlanta Hawks
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A late riser up the 2013 NBA draft board, Dennis Schroder wasn't exactly ready for the NBA stage as a rookie. And quite frankly, the expectations for Year 2 weren't much higher.
But Schroder has looked like an awful tough cover coming off Atlanta's bench this season. He's shooting a whopping 55.6 percent from the floor through nine games, averaging 7.9 points and 2.8 assists in just 16.6 minutes.
With a mean handle and terrific quickness, he's a nightmare to contain off the dribble. And he's doing a nice job of breaking down defenses and getting into the lane—of Schroder's 45 shots, 30 of them have come in the paint, per NBA.com.
As a facilitator, while he's at his best working the drive-and-kick, he also has strong pick-and-roll instincts in terms of timing and knowing how to freeze the defense with a little hesitation.
His numbers aren't huge, but Schroder has had a couple of really impressive stretches so far on the year. If he can start knocking down a few more jumpers, look for his value around the league to jump big time.
Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
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Jimmy Butler has come out of nowhere to lead the 8-4 Chicago Bulls in scoring early on with 21.5 points per game.
He wasn't very efficient offensively in 2013-14, having shot 39.7 percent, but he's been creating and making more shots, both at the rim and away from it, and it's taken his scoring attack to a whole new level.
All of a sudden, he's emerged as a mid-range assassin, where he's shooting 47.6 percent after shooting 36 percent in the mid-range last season.
He's also getting to the basket and doing a much better job of converting his trips there into points. Butler is taking 7.4 free-throw attempts per game, up from 5.0 a year ago, and he's finishing within five feet at a solid 68.4 percent clip.
We know how good he can be defensively, and for the most part, that's what has driven his value in the past.
But now, Butler has emerged as a go-to option for one of the premier NBA teams. He's going to command some serious dough on the restricted free-agent market next summer as one of the top two-way wings in the league.
Evan Fournier, Orlando Magic
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That Arron Afflalo-Evan Fournier trade is starting to look awfully nice for the Orlando Magic.
Fournier had some impressive moments in Denver, but there was never really a warning or alarm suggesting this type of breakout.
He's averaging 17.3 points on 48.0 percent shooting, doing just about all of his damage either at the rim or behind the arc.
Fournier has already hit 27 three-pointers through 12 games on 50.9 percent shooting from deep. That will certainly help his scoring average.
Off the dribble, he's getting to the rack at a really good rate and making things happen once he's there. He's scoring an impressive 4.6 points per game off drives, while he's shot 61 percent at the rim on 36 made buckets.
We've also seen Fournier flash some playmaking versatility, and though his 2.6 assists per game aren't much, his ability to create off the dribble is a valuable skill for a 6'7" wing.
His ceiling is probably limited, but it looks like the Magic really found something in Fournier, whose stock hadn't taken off during his first two years in the league.
Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
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Draymond Green had been more of a glue guy during most of his college and pro career—someone who brought intangibles to the table over skills or potent offense.
And while that still holds true, he is nearly doubling his points-per-game average in a full-time role for the Warriors.
He's averaging 12.9 points on 47.4 percent shooting and a red-hot 41.9 percent from downtown.
Green's shooting stroke has started to click—he's hit 44.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot opportunities, compared to just 34.9 percent a year ago. And with the bump in minutes, he's making over one more three-pointer per game than he did in 2013-14.
The rest of Green's offense has come at the rim, where he's been nearly automatic at 68.8 percent.
He broke into the league and ultimately Golden State's rotation based on his defense, toughness and passing ability. The hope was that one day he'd evolve into a knockdown shooter.
Cue the tape from his first 10 games of the 2014-15 season. Green has emerged as a major impact player for a legitimate title contender.
Ed Davis, Los Angeles Lakers
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It's amazing how quickly teams had given up on Ed Davis, who, the Los Angeles Lakers stole on a two-year deal that pays him less than a million bucks in 2014-15, via ShamSports.com.
Davis, with his 20.26 player efficiency rating on ESPN.com, has been a bright spot in L.A., where he's provided all sorts of interior activity around the rim.
He's not exactly a go-to option, but he's been productive and efficient while playing to his strengths as a finisher and offensive rebounder.
Davis is shooting 62.7 percent on the year and 69.1 at the rim, where his athleticism, motor and size translate to easy buckets and second-chance opportunities. On the glass, he's pulling in 11.0 boards per 36 minutes, and he's already picked up six tip-ins early on.
Defensively, he has also been disruptive, blocking 1.5 shots in 23.1 minutes per game.
It's more of a smaller-scale breakout, but considering where he's come from, it's a breakout nonetheless.
Assuming the Lakers aren't going anywhere, you'd like to think Davis' minutes will increase dramatically, along with his value around the league. Don't be surprised if Davis, only 25 years old, opts out in the summer, looking for a raise.
Jared Sullinger, Boston Celtics
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Even before the red flags surfaced regarding his back issues, Jared Sullinger's NBA sales pitch was lacking at Ohio State.
Without much spring in his legs, range on his jumper or a face-up-and-attack game, the upside just wasn't there. You feared he'd eventually plateau against superior above-the-rim athletes in the paint.
But Sullinger has steadily improved to the point where he's become a major inside-out force and rebounding machine in Year 3 with the Celtics.
He's averaging 16.0 points and 8.8 boards, along with 3.3 assists—the third-highest assist rate of any power forward in the league.
Offensively, he's become a handful on that low block, where he uses his butt to gain position and soft hands to finish. So much for the concerns regarding his limited explosiveness—Sullinger is shooting an unstoppable 70.9 percent in the restricted area this year.
And he's been money with a 44.1 percent mid-range jumper as well, a shot that's ultimately taken his game to a new level. We've also seen him start putting the ball on the floor a bit more, another dimension of offense he's added over time.
After being passed on in the draft for other power forwards like Thomas Robinson, Royce White, Terrence Jones, Andrew Nicholson and John Henson, Sullinger—currently the NBA's second-leading offensive rebounder—has suddenly become an extremely valuable piece in Boston's rebuilding plans.
Buy into the breakout.
Tony Wroten, Philadelphia 76ers
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Even if he does have one of the greenest lights in the league, it's tough to argue against Tony Wroten's averages of 19.3 points and 6.1 assists.
While he hasn't quite perfected the decision-making aspect of the game, Wroten's attack game is as strong as ever.
His 8.7 points per game off drives ranks second in the NBA. At 6'6", Wroten is one tough cover off the dribble, where he can shake defenders and score in the lane, whether it's acrobatically around traffic or right over the top of it. Of his 73 made field goals, a whopping 56 of them have a come at the rim—a ratio you typically see from interior-oriented big men, not guards or wings.
And while his shooting stroke is nowhere near where it needs to be, it's come a long way since his days at Washington. He's hit 17 three-pointers in 11 games after hitting 40 total in 72 games a season ago.
“I don’t even know what I’m shooting this year,” he told Grantland's Ben Detrick, who said that Wroten credits his start to taking an "extreme" amount of practice jumpers over the summer. “I don’t put numbers on it. Even if I miss, I’m not dwelling on the last one.”
Detrick also notes how Philadelphia's "laissez-faire environment" has actually benefited and ultimately enabled Wroten's breakout.
Though more of a playmaking wing than a point guard, Wroten's assist percentage even ranks No. 6 in the NBA just a hair behind Stephen Curry's, via RealGM.com. Sure, he's turning the ball over like wild, but he's taken advantage of Philadelphia's pace, as well as his size and breakdown ability that helps open up scoring chances for teammates.
Maybe some of his inflated production is a result of a monster usage rate while Michael Carter-Williams was out with an injury, but Wroten is clearly no longer a guy you just throw into a trade.
If anything positive comes out from the Sixers' season on the floor, it's Wroten's emergence as one of the game's more exciting offensive weapons.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com.
