2014 Maui Invitational: Preview and Prediction for Early-Season Showdowns

The first tip of the Maui Invitational went airborne in the Orwellian year of 1984, when it was won by the Providence Friars.

This year's field boasts just one winner of this event—Arizona—and it hasn't won the tournament since 2000. Sean Miller and his Wildcats, who are No. 2 in the country, not only want to be the best in the West but also want to prove they're as good as, if not better than, another set of Wildcats back East.

There are intriguing matchups in this renewal of the Maui Invitational, including the volcanic BYU offense and the suffocating San Diego State defense.

Read on to catch the forecast for what promises to be an exciting few days in Hawaii.

Teams

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Arizona Wildcats

The Wildcats are the No. 2 team in the country and sport a 3-0 record. In their three wins so far, they've won by an average of 17.3 points.

Brigham Young Cougars

BYU, like Arizona, is unbeaten at 3-0 and averaging 95.7 points per game, good for sixth in the country. Its adjusted offense is 24th in the land, according to KenPom.com.

Chaminade Silverswords

Maybe the sweetest mascot name in the entire field, Chaminade is a Division II school and plays in this tournament as the host. The Silverswords have made four trips to the NCAA Division II tournament and won three Pacific West championships.

Kansas State Wildcats

These Wildcats are also unbeaten but not quite as impressive as some of the other teams. Hailing from the Big 12, Kansas State does have some up-and-coming stars worth watching.

Pittsburgh Panthers

Pitt did itself a favor and scheduled a game against Hawaii in preparation for the Maui Invitational (a game it lost 74-70). Why not arrive in the Land of the Smoke Monster a few days early? Why not get in a screw-tightening game before Monday’s tipoff?

As it stands, Pitt is unranked and unbeaten. However, it defeated Samford by just seven points on Nov. 16th.

Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue is ready for some competition. It put a beatdown on Grambling, opening up a 28-5 lead in the first half this past Thursday.

Missouri Tigers

The Tigers are one of the few teams in the tournament with a loss, and they are rewarded with a first-round tilt against Arizona in Maui.

Mizzou is one of the underdogs heading into this tournament. Its offense ranks 239th overall, and its defense ranks 88th overall.

San Diego State Aztecs

No. 16 San Diego State doesn’t have one dynamic player, but the Aztecs have players who complement one another, providing matchup problems for opponents.

When to Watch

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

Twelve games are on the slate in Maui. All game times are adjusted for EST. Here is the Maui Invitational bracket.

Monday, November 24

Purdue vs. Kansas State, ESPN2, 2:30 p.m.

Missouri vs. Arizona, ESPN2, 5 p.m.

Pittsburgh vs. Chaminade, ESPNU, 4 p.m.

BYU vs. San Diego State, ESPN2, 6:30 p.m.

Tuesday, November 25

Game 5, ESPN2, 2 p.m.

Game 6, ESPN2, 4:30 p.m.

Game 7, ESPN, 2:30 p.m.

Game 8, ESPN, 10 p.m.

Wednesday, November 26

Game 9, ESPNU, Seventh- and Eighth-Place Game, 2:30 p.m.

Game 10, ESPN2, Fifth- and Sixth-Place Game, 5 p.m.

Game 11, ESPN2, Consolation Game, 2:30 p.m.

Game 12, ESPN, Championship Game, 5 p.m.

The Favorite

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

By virtue of its No. 2 ranking in all of college basketball, Arizona is the prohibitive favorite to win the Maui Invitational.

Nobody is getting in the way of these Wildcats. Through three games, Arizona's 109.2 adjusted offense is eighth in the country. With three players averaging 11 points or better, Arizona should have a relatively easy time disposing of this field.

This is ESPN.com’s Myron Medcalf’s take on the Wildcats: “Arizona’s lineup just isn’t fair. [Stanley] Johnson is a freshman who is built like a pickup truck. He’s next to [Rondae] Hollis-Jefferson and [Brandon] Ashley and [Kaleb] Tarczewski and [TJ] McConnell. That’s a lot of juice for one team.”

Top Matchups

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Pitt v. Chaminade

This matchup isn’t going to light up any Christmas trees, but it’s interesting because it features a Division I school versus a Division II school.

Chaminade, the host of this tournament, has performed well in its own division. To perform well in this tournament, it may have to summon the ghosts of 1982.

Writes Paul Zeise of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Chaminade is most famous for pulling what many believe to be the greatest upset in college basketball history in December 1982 when the Silverswords, an NAIA program at the time, beat No. 1-ranked Virginia featuring Ralph Sampson, 77-72.”

Hometown pride and the underdog story make this matchup interesting. Let’s hope it stays that way for 40 minutes.

BYU vs. San Diego State

Now we’re talkin’. Here are two rivals who once clashed as members of the Mountain West Conference, so there's history here.

We’ve got a BYU team (now in the Big West) that loves to run and gun and a SDSU team that wants nothing more than to snuff it out. The Cougars are 24th in adjusted offense, according to KenPom.com, and have averaged 95.7 points per game, good for sixth in the country.

San Diego State is ranked fourth in the country in defense, allowing just 44.7 points per game.

This game pits a great offense against a great defense. The edge goes to No. 16 San Diego State.

San Diego State v. Arizona

These two will only meet in the final if they both run through their first two games.

Arizona opens with Missouri and would then face the winner of the Kansas State-Purdue game. San Diego State has to outlast BYU and then the winner of Pitt-Chaminade.

Writes Medcalf of SDSU: “Fisher built SDSU on the backs of junior college kids and transfers. But his recruiting class of Malik Pope, Trey Kell and Zylan Cheatham is no joke and proof that the future is bright in San Diego. Plus, [Angelo] Chol has been a monster in practice. The Aztecs are excited about his potential.” 

Watching Arizona’s T.J. McConnell thrash around and create opportunities against a fourth-ranked San Diego State defense sounds awfully enticing come Wednesday.

Players to Watch

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Arizona’s Cerberus

You may not know it by name, but you’d know it on sight. Cerberus is the three-headed dog of Greek mythology, and Arizona has a veritable Cerberus on the floor.

T.J. McConnell has one of the most balanced stat lines you’ll see: 8.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 4.0 steals per game. Then there’s Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who is leading his team with 16.0 points and 6.0 rebounds per game.

On top of that, you have Brandon Ashley, who has 15.0 points and 5.0 boards per game. Arizona has a buffet of talent and is a must-watch on the right side of the Maui bracket.

Marcus Foster, Kansas State

Heard of him? If you haven’t, you will. SB Nation’s Kevin Zimmerman raves about this explosive sophomore:

"

Kansas State's Marcus Foster should be a star after averaging 15.5 points per game as a freshman last season. The 6'2" guard is a bit of a gunner, having attempted 6.1 threes per game, which accounted for nearly half of his 12.7 shots taken per game. Still, he hit 39.5 percent from deep while also being a capable playmaker.

"

Foster is averaging 14.5 points per game and is 6-of-9 from beyond the three-point line.

Don’t ignore Thomas Gipson, either. He comes into Maui averaging 19.0 points and 7.5 rebounds per game for Kansas State.

Dwayne Polee II and JJ O'Brien, SDSU

San Diego State has one of the more balanced attacks in the tournament lacking that one standout option. Polee II leads a tight pack of scorers with 10.7 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.0 steals in just 25 minutes per game.

O'Brien leads the Aztecs in both rebounding (7.3) and assists per game (2.3) while averaging a team-second-best 10.0 points per game.

Tyler Haws, BYU

On a team with the third-highest-scoring offense in the land, Tyler Haws is the leading scorer. The 6’5” senior is averaging 17.3 points per game and shooting a chilly 27 percent from the three-point arc.

He makes up for it at the free-throw line, sinking 90 percent of his attempts.

Predictions

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Purdue vs. Kansas State

Winner: Purdue

Purdue comes into Maui off an 82-30 win over Grambling. The Boilermakers are better in adjusted offense and defense than Kansas State.

Missouri vs. Arizona

Winner: Arizona

Arizona has too many athletes and provides far too many matchup problems for an underfueled Mizzou team. 

Pittsburgh vs. Chaminade

Winner: Pittsburgh

Though Chaminade is a Division II school, this won't be a walkover for Pitt. Chaminade has hometown pride and has been known to occasionally upset big schools. Pitt will ultimately pull away, but the Silverswords won't bow out easily.

BYU vs. San Diego State

Winner: San Diego State

This is the most intriguing first-round matchup. BYU is the third-highest-scoring offense in college basketball, and SDSU is the fourth-best defense in points allowed.

SDSU has better athletes, and should BYU's shots turn from fire to ice, SDSU should have a field day.

Purdue vs. Arizona

Winner: Arizona

Purdue is a middle-of-the-pack team with solid numbers in adjusted offense and defense, per KenPom.com. That may suffice in the Big Ten but not against a team like Arizona. Arizona cruises into the final.

Pittsburgh vs. San Diego State

Winner: San Diego State

Pitt has SDSU beat in adjusted offense, per KenPom.com. This game might come down to defense, and that's where SDSU could stomp out Pitt. SDSU is fourth in adjusted defense in the country, and Pitt is 94th, per KenPom.com. That spells trouble for Pitt.

Arizona vs. San Diego State

Winner: Arizona

This is the one we've all been waiting for. These two teams have formed a nice rivalry on the West Coast. They're not conference foes, but they share a region in the southwestern part of the country, and that gives an added flare to this game.

Arizona is better offensively by a landslide, and the defenses are comparable. Passions will be high in this title game, and Arizona will earns its second Maui Invitational. 

Winner: Arizona

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

It’s got to be Arizona.

The Wildcats are stacked with talent, and head coach Sean Miller is going to want to stick it to San Diego State.

Zimmerman wrote the following in 2013: "It's not gotten the attention it should, maybe, but the San Diego State and Arizona rivalry is in the process of turning into something more, even if it's unclear when they'll play one another down the road. And both teams are only getting stronger."

Miller won’t squander this opportunity to go off on the Aztecs.