Manny Pacquiao vs. Chris Algieri: Round-by-Round Predictions
Manny Pacquiao takes on another foe Saturday night in Macau, China, as he steps into the ring for a duel with Chris Algieri.
The 35-year-old is gunning for his third straight victory to act as the next step to his late-career resurgence, and he'll head to The Venetian Macao for the second time ever. Pacquiao also fought in Macau in November 2013, defeating Brandon Rios in a 12-round decision.
Algieri hopes to make Pacquiao's hands full, however. Although he's been out of the spotlight for almost all of his career, a split-decision victory in June over Ruslan Provodnikov to win the WBO light welterweight title turned some heads.
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To say this is by far the biggest stage the Huntington, New York, native has been on would be a vast understatement. In fact, it's his first-ever fight outside the state of New York, and it's halfway across the planet.
Understandably, Pacquiao is a huge favorite with -705 odds, according to Odds Shark. While talking up Pacquiao's future opponent, trainer Freddie Roach made no doubt about how it would unfold, per The Associated Press' Tim Dahlberg (via ABC News).
"This is no Rocky movie," Roach said. "This is for real and Manny is going to knock him out."
Will Algieri have enough to seriously threaten another sour defeat for Pac-Man? Let's find out below.
Round-by-Round Predictions
Round 1: Pacquiao
Neither Pacquiao or Algieri will concede much in Round 1, with both boxers looking to feel out the other and get into their groove.
If there's one of them who is most likely to shoot himself out of a cannon early, however, it's Pacquiao.
While not showing the reckless abandon he once did, Pacquiao still pushes the envelope and uses flurries to throw off his opponent. He's masterfully gained the upper hand in recent fights against Rios and Timothy Bradley by remaining sound, sticking to his game plan and taking what he's given.
Maybe it's too much to say Pacquiao will win in one round, as Roach told Newsday's Greg Logan, but he'll gain the upper hand early.
Round 2: Algieri
While Pacquiao will win the opening round, he'll go back to his corner worried after seeing his opponent start to get into his groove.
Vastly overlooked due to a 20-0 all-time record that doesn't include a single fight out of New York, Algieri has some serious energy and mobility that makes him a handful both offensively and defensively. He threw a whopping 217 more punches than Provodnikov in their earlier meeting, per ESPN's Dan Rafael.
Algieri's reach advantage will be overlooked simply due to who Pacquiao is, but he maintains a five-inch advantage over his opponent. In the early rounds, that will loom large.
Round 3: Algieri
This is when things will start getting interesting.
After finding success for the first time all fight in Round 2, Algieri will settle into his style and continue implementing what works. His reach will continue to allow him to land jabs Pacquiao can't, and he'll start to get into Pac-Man's head.
In his groove and knowing he has a golden opportunity, Algieri will start throwing the kitchen sink at Pacquiao—using the same chaotic sort of style that Pacquiao himself utilizes.
These fights often go 12 rounds for a reason, and Pacquiao has learned over his long career to take his time. He'll have to do so here in Round 3 with Algieri breathing down his neck and threatening to blow the fight open.
Round 4: Pacquiao
When supreme boxers get in these types of situations where they're on the ropes (literally), some choose to pack it in and fight carefully while others become fearless and turn it back around.
Pacquiao has almost always been in that latter group throughout his career. Against a highly skilled foe who Pacquiao indeed overmatches, he'll find that fire and unleash it in Round 4.
Algieri has the better reach and the type of suffocating style that will certainly fluster Pacquiao, but few fighters on the planet can execute that style better than the 35-year-old. He's run circles around the likes of Bradley and Rios, and even if he's not what he used to be, those bouts show he still has what it takes.
Round 5: Pacquiao Knocks Out Algieri
This is actually quite the upset, at least to predict this early of a KO. Pacquiao hasn't knocked out a single opponent since 2009, and that knockout of Miguel Cotto came in the 12th and final round.
But the dominoes are simply stacked too high for Algieri to overcome.
He'll find as much early success against Pacquiao as anyone has in the last few years, but few fighters are simply at the level to compete with the Filipino for more than a few rounds. The knockouts haven't come lately because he's had his hands full grinding out wins over elite opponents, but Pacquiao will begin to pull away in the middle rounds and seize his opportunity.
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