UNC Basketball: 1 Prediction for Each Tar Heels Starter in 2014-15

Despite using two different lineups in the two games thus far in 2014-15, North Carolina has settled on a four-forward lineup to begin matches.

Marcus Paige is the lone guard that will start for UNC. He is surrounded by Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks up front, and J.P. Tokoto and Justin Jackson on the wings. This big lineup should be good defensively all season as Paige is fine, and Tokoto has the quickness to cover opposing guards.

This setup should also bring enough options offensively as Tokoto is becoming a capable passer, even if his all-around, off-guard skills aren't quite there.

With the season just getting underway and a lot of basketball in front of us, here is one prediction for how each starter's year will go.

Marcus Paige

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• Marcus Paige will top 30 points in a game at least six times this season.

Only twice last year did Paige reach the 30-point plateau. He did so the first time by getting to the foul line and reached it the second time with the three ball.

Both of those skills are still open for Paige this season obviously, but he should also see more general openings on the court. With more weapons around him and certainly more outside threats on his team, Paige should get something that was rare last year: open looks within 25 feet.

The only step Paige needs to take to make this happen is to use his foul-shooting ability more. He doesn't drive enough and get to the line as much as he should considering he's a career 87 percent foul-shooter.

There will be games where he is unstoppable from three; there will be a couple games where he gets to the line a bunch. This season, there will also be some games where he's just creating havoc in the middle of the court and defenders can't slide off of their man to help.

It's something that didn't happen last season but will lead to a bunch more 30-point performances for Paige this year.

Brice Johnson

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• Brice Johnson will finish with more forced turnovers than committed turnovers.

This is a rare occurrence for sure because usually small, quick guys gather lots of steals and force turnovers on defense. However, those are the same types of players who turn the ball over themselves. Johnson, though, possesses the ability to force turnovers on one end and is also capable of playing on the other without making mistakes.

Early on, Johnson has three steals and zero turnovers. He also has three blocks. And although a block isn't a forced turnover, it's an example of disrupting an opposing offense.

As Johnson's game improves, he will learn to be smarter on defense and also exert full effort more often than he did as a sophomore. Experience gained should make him a fearsome combination of steals and blocks on the defensive side of the ball if his pure athleticism hasn't already.

That same experience will garner smarter possessions on offense as well, where he already works well in the post and doesn't force passes.

Although a forced turnover isn't a perfectly accountable stat, Johnson's steals combined with his ability to alter shots give a nice facsimile.

J.P. Tokoto

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• J.P. Tokoto will lead Carolina in assists.

This would have been an utterly absurd statement to make even just a few weeks ago. After all, Marcus Paige is still here as one of the best guards in the country; Nate Britt is here as a man who started often at point guard last season; Joel Berry is entering as a top point guard prospect and someone capable of holding down the position long term.

However, if the first couple games were any indication, coach Roy Williams isn't interested in messing around with small lineups and sliding Paige back and forth between guard spots again this season. Instead, he has tabbed J.P. Tokoto as his starting shooting guard for all intents and purposes.

Tokoto is not a guard in the sense of the word. He can't shoot from the outside and doesn't dribble penetrate to get to the foul line or create easy looks. However, he's a good on-ball defender and a capable passer, one who is going to be dishing to teammates an awful lot this season.

In two games in 2014-15, Tokoto has 11 shot attempts and 14 assists. Rather than hanging around the elbows and forcing jumpers, Tokoto has been a lead ball-handler and is feeding teammates.

With Paige demanding more looks from the outside because of his skill set, it only makes sense that someone else will take a share of the assists from him. Tokoto will be that beneficiary.

Kennedy Meeks

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• Kennedy Meeks will finish many games with more rebounds than points.

A season ago, as a freshman playing limited minutes, Meeks led all contributing Tar Heels in rebounds per 40 minutes and total rebound percentage. So far this year, Meeks leads the team in rebounds with 21. His game is progressing, as is his mobility and stamina.

The one thing also progressing is the talent around him. Brice Johnson is already exerting himself on the block and in the paint. Once the freshmen gunners start to hit shots, there will be fewer opportunities inside for Meeks to score.

Meeks is not a bad offensive player by any means. However, his greatest skill is certainly on the boards, which is why there will be a number of games this season where the board total surpasses the point total.

Justin Jackson

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• Justin Jackson will finish second on the team in made threes and finish with a greater total than Leslie McDonald's second-best mark last year.

It has been a clunky start for North Carolina and for Jackson specifically behind the three-point arc. The team, outside of Marcus Paige, is a collective 2-of-19 from three. Jackson personally is 0-of-3 early on.

However, those figures are misleading for two reasons. First, UNC has not needed the three in either of its first two games. The big men down low have been dominating the paint, lessening the necessity to force outside jumpers.

Second, these were Jackson's first two collegiate games. He is still learning the offense and understanding his teammates, let alone waiting for his shot to fall. And it will begin to fall. Jackson came out of high school with a pedigree of a guy who shoots daggers, especially extending over smaller wing defenders.

The minutes are already there for the freshman early on, and he's shooting well from the floor in general. Soon the made buckets will fall from distance as well.