The Fatal Flaw Every 2014-15 NBA Rookie of the Year Contender Has to Fix
The NBA Rookie of the Year race has gotten off to a pretty slow start. Not many first-year players have been producing over the initial month of the season.
I'd place some blame on the fact that many of them are 20 years old and younger.
But they also each have flaws or weaknesses that will have to get worked out. Of course, none of these flaws has to be permanent, especially given how young most of these rookies really are.
Still, failing to fix the following issues could result in damaging consequences regarding their development down the road.
Given the importance of statistics when determining Rookie of the Year, we only considered rookies who average at least 20 minutes and 6.5 points per game.
Honorable Mention: Dante Exum, Utah Jazz
1 of 7
Flaw: Mid-Range Scoring
If only Dante Exum, who leads all rookies in Player Efficiency Rating, was playing over 20 minutes a game, he just might be the favorite for this year's award.
Unfortunately, a lack of production makes him a real long shot—unless, of course, he finds a way to replace Trey Burke.
At this point, it looks like Exum's biggest flaw is that mid-range game, where he hasn't shown much in terms of a pull-up jumper or floater—required shots for an NBA point guard.
He's been excellent around the rim and threatening from behind the arc, but in a game where ball screens are prevalent, being able to step up over one and knock down a jumper (before traffic in the paint) is essentially a must.
So far on the year, Exum has made 11 shots within eight feet, 12 from 24 feet and out, and only one in between. He's actually yet to make a pull-up jumper on the year.
Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks
2 of 7
Flaw: Shooting Range
Jabari Parker has been fairly consistent to start the year, having scored in double figures in seven of his 11 games played.
However, except for an 18-point performance against Detroit, he's been stuck in that eight-to-13-point range. We haven't seen his ability to score in volume the way we saw it at Duke.
If only he could get that jumper to start dropping, Parker would probably be averaging closer to 14.0 points a game instead of the 10.7 he's putting up early on.
He's shooting a horrendous 26.3 percent on spot-ups and just 25.9 percent on pull-ups. Parker is also just 3-of-14 from downtown to start the year.
He shoots a fairly line-drive ball. With a deeper NBA arc, he might need to make some mechanical adjustments in order to extend his range.
On a bright note, he's actually been rock solid in terms of finishing in the restricted area, where he's at 69.4 percent.
But it's going to be tough for Parker to enter takeover mode unless he starts connecting from 17-plus feet out.
Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves
3 of 7
Flaw: Dribble Creativity/Getting to the Basket
It's tough to be too critical of Andrew Wiggins, who's been pretty efficient as a shooter and scorer—46.3 percent from the field, 55.6 percent from downtown (5-of-9).
But as good as that step-back and pull-up jumper have looked—and they sure look pretty when they fall—it's not the type of offense you want to rely on game after game. So far, he's taken 42 mid-range jumpers to just 25 attempts at the rim.
He's only averaging 1.8 drives per game, and he's recorded just eight total points off those drives. In comparison, his 1.8 points per 48 minutes on drives is a point fewer than what fellow rookie Doug McDermott is averaging, a guy who falls on the complete other side of the quickness spectrum.
Wiggins' lack of dribble creativity also shows up in the playmaking department as well, where he's registered just seven assists through nine games.
I'd put a decent amount of blame on a handle that's just not tight enough. He loves the spin move and to rip through into that explosive first step, but those maneuvers don't require much dribble creativity. For those, he leans on his athleticism.
Limited dribble creativity at this stage isn't a red flag but rather something he'll just need to improve on as a 19-year-old prospect. But it could act as a weight keeping him from taking that next step if no progress is made.
Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets
4 of 7
Flaw: Defense
It's funny to think Bojan Bogdanovic is in a Rookie of the Year race with Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker, but he's currently No. 3 in scoring among rookies (10.5 ppg) while playing the most minutes per game of any (30.5).
And as Nate Duncan of Basketball Insiders notes, if the Nets go on a run, something their talent suggests they're capable of doing, Bogdanovic might actually be a sleeper pick to win the award.
However, if there's one thing that's going to keep him from rising as a valuable NBA starter, it's defense. And he hasn't been terrible. But most of the guys who play Bogdanovic's position are quicker and much more athletic.
And it's not just defending one-on-one. It's following quicker, slippery small forwards around through screens and off-ball movement.
Otherwise, he's got a really nice all-around offensive game. Bogdanovic can knock down shots from a variety of different angles and spots on the floor.
But if he becomes a target out there for opposing wings and forwards, his offensive attack may not be potent enough to save him.
Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
5 of 7
Flaw: Shot Selection
Marcus Smart's shot selection was his biggest weakness at Oklahoma State, and based on preseason and the five games he played before injuring his ankle, that weakness has carried over.
Despite having a jumper that hasn't been very reliable—below 30 percent from deep both years in college—he's taken 25 three-point attempts to just 11 shots inside the arc this year. It was no different in preseason, where a whopping 44 of his 60 shot attempts came from downtown.
He'll eventually have to develop an in-between game—the ability to score in the mid-range, just before traffic in the paint. Per hoop-math.com, he only hit 27 two-point jumpers in 34 games last season.
Stop-and-pops, step-backs, floaters—these are shots Smart must add, even if his three-point shooting picks up.
Smart will ultimately have trouble trying to maintain offensive efficiency if he can't tighten up that shot selection by creating more quality looks for himself in the half court.
He's expected to return to the lineup over the next few games, per The Boston Globe's Gary Washburn. Smart will likely find his way back into the rotation based on his pressure defense alone, but if the Celtics end up trading Rajon Rondo, his Rookie of the Year chances should skyrocket.
Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers
6 of 7
Flaw: Raw Offensive Game
Nerlens Noel hasn't been nearly as efficient offensively as his college numbers, size (6'11", 228 lbs) and athleticism suggest he would be.
"I didn't play well at all. I didn't finish around the basket. I didn't rebound well enough," Noel told Philly.com's Bob Cooney after a bad loss to the Spurs on November 17.
He's shooting just 40 percent from the floor; though, to his credit, there aren't many playmakers or talent in Philadelphia to play off.
Still, Noel's ball skills and offensive game are awfully limited. He's hit just two of 19 jump shots and one of seven hooks, per NBA.com.
With a rail-thin frame, Noel won't be able to live full time in the paint. If he can't expand his offensive game outside it, he may fall between the 4 and 5 positions—not strong enough for the interior or skilled enough for the perimeter.
K.J. McDaniels, Philadelphia 76ers
7 of 7
Flaw: Three-Point Shooting
K.J. McDaniels will likely be able to carve out a career as a defensive specialist, but the defensive specialists who hold the most value are those who can also shoot the three ball.
There's only so far McDaniels' shot blocking can take him as a small forward, a position that also requires the ability to stretch the floor and threaten the defense as a shooter.
McDaniels shot just 30.4 percent from downtown at Clemson last year, and though he's at 34.5 percent at the moment, he's only hit four of his last 18 after catching fire during two separate games early on.
At the NBA combine, McDaniels finished as the third-worst spot-up shooter in attendance, per Draft Express.
You just just won't find too many successful role-playing wings who aren't reliable three-point threats.
Stats are provided by NBA.com unless otherwise noted and are accurate as of Wednesday, Nov. 19.
