Playing Fact or Fiction with MLB's Latest Offseason Rumors

When it comes to Major League Baseball's offseason, the speculation and rumors are at least half the fun.

The rest, of course, is actually finding out which players were traded for each other and who signed with what team and for how much.

With the hot stove burning up with news, reports and hearsay, it's time to separate which stories have something to them and which ones don't with a little "fact or fiction."

Rumor: The Marlins Are Going to Build Around $325 Million Man Giancarlo Stanton

Rob Foldy/Getty Images

Now that the Miami Marlins have gone big to keep their $325 million man Giancarlo Stanton, they have to stay big to keep the team competitive, right?

That seems to be the case based on everything that's coming out in the wake of this record-setting megadeal, as Joe Frisaro of MLB.com writes:

"

The Marlins convinced Stanton to buy into the direction of the franchise during a meeting at a hotel in Beverly Hills, California, in late October.

Team owner Jeffrey Loria, [team president David] Samson, president of baseball operations Michael Hill, general manager Dan Jennings and manager Mike Redmond were on hand. The Marlins presented the framework of the megadeal, but Stanton was more interested in how the team planned on winning.

'Winning was No. 1, as we talked about things when we went face to face,' Jennings said. 'Winning is a commitment. Commitment is winning. We were on the same page from the beginning. He only wanted to talk about winning. We kind of let that drive the conversation.'

"

While there are reasons to doubt the Marlins based on their past actions—and frankly, all this talk of "winning" sounds a little eerily familiar—it does appear they are aiming at their next target already.

The club has followed up the Stanton contract with a two-year, $20 million offer to free-agent first baseman Adam LaRoche, who led the Washington Nationals in both home runs and RBI last season, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.

The fact that Stanton's pact is so heavily backloaded, as Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports, is all part of the plan to help the front office put together a better team sooner rather than later. Maybe Loria will stick to it this time.

It's probably not a good idea to make Giancarlo Stanton mad.

Verdict: Fact, because when a team already has spent $325 mill, what's another, oh, $20 million or $30 million here or there, especially if it brings in a player to fill a position of need?

Rumor: The Red Sox Are Going to Land Both Pablo Sandoval and Jon Lester

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

The Boston Red Sox haven't made any moves yet, but boy, have they been trying recently.

The club has offers on the table to two big-time free agents in left-hander (and former Red Sox ace) Jon Lester and third baseman Pablo Sandoval, according to Nick Cafardo of the The Boston Globe.

The specs on the reported Lester deal are somewhere in the range of $110 million to $120 million over six years, Cafardo indicates.

While those numbers may be negotiable, per Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, there are at least six teams after Lester, so he has the ability to create a lot of leverage to get the best contract possible.

Having met with his former club as well as the Chicago Cubs earlier in the week, Lester has the Atlanta Braves on tap for Thursday, according to multiple reports.

Sandoval, meanwhile, was in Boston on Monday and Tuesday, as Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com writes:

"

The Red Sox have the financial flexibility under the luxury-tax threshold to handle a price tag of at least $90 million that Sandoval may be wearing. But given the weight issues that have saddled Sandoval since 2010, the club isn't expected to display much enthusiasm for the six-year deal that agent Gustavo Vasquez said his client wants. There are ways to get around that hurdle, such as an option for the sixth year that vests with a certain number of plate appearances.

"

While Sandoval is a priority for the Sox, he also has drawn interest from the Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres as well, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. The San Francisco Giants, with whom he's won three titles the past five seasons, remain very much in the mix, too.

In other words, despite offers already out there to both Lester and Sandoval, neither appears close to getting finished.

Verdict: Fiction; Boston can land one of them, sure, but it's hard to believe a club that has been gun-shy about handing out nine-figure deals to free agents after the Carl Crawford $142 million fiasco is going to splurge on two.

Rumor: The Rockies Will Trade at Least 1 of Troy Tulowitzki or Carlos Gonzalez

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

The Colorado Rockies indicated earlier this offseason that they're at least willing to listen to trade proposals for their two star players, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, which is a change in the organization's previous steadfast stance that the two franchise players were untouchable.

That in mind, Patrick Saunders of the The Denver Post went to a few general managers of other clubs and asked about the market for both players. Here's the key takeaway:

"

'There are so many hurdles,' one GM said. 'You need to find out how healthy they really are. Then you have to ask if the Rockies would be willing to take on some of that money. I'm not saying (a trade) won't happen, but I think it would be a longshot this winter.

Added another GM: 'A trade right now doesn't seem to make much sense. We're not in the market for Tulo, but if we were, I'd want to see what he does on the field first—during spring training and early next season.

'When Tulo is healthy, he's one of the five best players in the game. You'd be hard-pressed to find a better player. But right now, it's about him staying healthy. I think there is a similar feeling about Gonzalez.'

"

We've been over the numbers before, and they're not pretty. Tulowitzki, 30, has averaged 88 games played the past three seasons and has $118 million coming his way through 2020, while the 29-year-old Gonzalez's games-played average in that time is 105, and he is owed $53 million over the next three years.

Considering the Rockies are going to want a haul in return, it's simply too much of a risk to do anything now before both players are back on the field, healthy and performing like All-Stars. Once that happens, however, a trade involving one of these two seems inevitable, if not necessary for the rebuilding Rockies.

Verdict: Fiction, at least for this offseason, but it might be a fact by next July.

Rumor: The Yankees Might Spend Big Again to Go After Max Scherzer

Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images

Although the New York Yankees' plan to stick to mid-tier free agents like Brandon McCarthy and Chase Headley remains the focus, it's possible they could be "sleeping giants" for right-hander Max Scherzer, per Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com.

That sounds enticing for Yankees fans, but it sounds unrealistic here.

There's so much money tied up in players on the wrong side of 30—an age Scherzer is himself—that general manager Brian Cashman appears to be genuine in his desire to think smaller this winter after paying out nearly a half-billion dollars worth of contracts last offseason, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.

As Feinsand writes:

"

The Yankees already have more than $170 million committed to 11 players, including five—Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, Alex Rodriguez, Masahiro Tanaka and Jacoby Ellsbury—set to earn more than $20 million apiece. ...

... With Tanaka and Sabathia already set to earn more than $20 million each, adding a third such pitcher is not in their plans, a source said.

"

Is it possible that if Cashman somehow misses out on his plan, it could be blown up, and the money could start pouring out once again? Sure, and that's what happened last year when the Yankees spent so much to land Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran after months of chatter that they wanted to stay under the $189 million luxury-tax threshold.

But at some point, one imagines, Cashman and Co. realize that throwing money at the problem—two straight October-less campaigns—doesn't necessarily solve it.

Verdict: Fiction, with too many onerous contracts already rostered, this team doesn't need to add yet another to the mix.

Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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