Chris Algieri's Blueprint to Beat Manny Pacquiao in Welterweight Showdown

Undefeated junior welterweight titlist Chris Algieri (20-0-0) will have a tall task this weekend at the Cotai Arena in Macau when he challenges pound-for-pound superstar Manny Pacquiao (56-5-2) for the WBO Welterweight Championship.

Algieri was relatively unknown before his upset split-decision victory over Ruslan Provodnikov this past June at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. That victory earned him this opportunity, but he’ll enter as a pretty substantial underdog.

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It’s been a difficult slog convincing many fans and media members that the New Yorker has much of a chance of making it back-to-back upsets.

He has certain physical and stylistic advantages that could play in his favor, which he summed up best.

“I’m tall for the weight class. I’m not built to go in there and stand in front of a man and trade bombs. Why would I do that? I’ve got length, reach, speed, footwork and defense. But that’s not what’s going to be the difference in this fight. It’s not tall guy versus short guy,” Algieri told Bleacher Report.

“It’s Chris Algieri versus Manny Pacquiao. It’s what I bring to the table versus what he brings to the table.”

So what will he have to bring to the table to score the upset of the year?

Fight Big

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Algieri is coming up in weight to challenge Pacquiao, but, as you can see in the above photo, he won’t be the smaller man.

Not by a long shot.

The challenger will have a pretty substantial 3.5-inch height and five-inch reach advantage over the Pac-Man, and he’ll need to make full use of those physical edges.

Algieri, simply put, needs to act and fight like the larger man. He needs to fight big.

What does that mean?

Algieri sometimes has a tendency to drop his head and lunge forward in order to get into scoring range. That defeats the point of being a tall, rangy fighter, and in this particular fight, it would play right into Pacquiao's hands. 

That can’t happen here.

Not on this level, and definitely not against a fighter as experienced and powerful as Pacquiao.

Algieri needs to use his length and reach to keep Pacquiao at the end of his punches, and he can't do that if he's dropping his head, negating his height and fighting like a smaller man.

Stick and Move

Algieri is an intelligent guy—with a master’s degree in clinical nutrition and a dream of eventually becoming a doctor—and he needs to put his noggin before his heart on fight night.

What does that mean?

Stick and move, baby.

Pacquiao could struggle against a fighter who is able to control the distance, use every inch of the ring and stay out of his range. He can dart in, land a quick succession of shots and get out better than most in this business, and Algieri can’t afford to linger and make his job easier.

He needs to set up, land his shots and get out of Dodge. 

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As you can see in the above video of his final preparations from Macau, Algieri has great speed, timing and sense of space in the ring. His entire offensive attack flows from his jab and ability to move his feet to places conducive to shoot a couple of hooks and get out.

Algieri isn’t afraid to mix it up in the trenches, but he should limit the opportunities he gives Pacquiao to change the fight with his power and speed. He needs to use his length, range and footwork to make this a boxing match rather than a fight.

Former welterweight champion Timothy Bradley—who knows a thing or two about fighting Pacquiao—gave Algieri his keys to the fight on HBO’s Under the Lights: Pacquiao-Algieri.

“Honestly I think after watching tape on Algieri, I think he’s going to give Pacquiao a lot of problems, especially with his movement and his range. And if he’s able to control that distance he’s going to give Pacquiao problems,” Bradley said.

Bradley was quick to point out his feeling that Pacquiao would eventually find Algieri with big shots and win the fight, but the Long Islander can mitigate that risk by fighting smart. That means keeping it to the outside, popping, moving and not lingering.

Jab Until Your Arm Falls Off

Algieri’s best weapon is his stiff left jab, which he uses to control the distance of the fight and disrupt his opponent’s rhythm.

And he’s going to need to do plenty of disrupting against an offensive machine like Pacquiao, who can punch and move with devastating effect.

If you look at his fight with Provodnikov, Algieri showed he was a quick study, adapting after a pair of first-round knockdowns to outbox the Russian slugger.

The jab was the key.

Every time Algieri pumped his jab, he snapped Provodnikov’s head back. That forced the Siberian Rocky to take a second to regain his balance, and by the time he had, his man was gone and out of range or had already popped him with a couple more scoring shots.

Provodnikov is no Pacquiao.

Manny isn’t a one-dimensional slugger, and he won’t be discouraged and relegate himself to one shot at a time while looking for a knockout.

Algieri needs to make sure that jab is constantly pumping in his face, even if it doesn’t land. It can be a huge disrupting factor, buying the underdog enough time and space to plan his next move and keep Pacquiao away.

If he’s able to pop Pacquiao’s head back the way he did Provodnikov, he could have something big to build upon.

Will the Keys Fit?

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Algieri is staring down the barrel of the opportunity of a lifetime.

He doesn’t seem like the type of guy to get lost in the moment and lose focus, but he needs to be almost perfect in order to score this upset.

One of the biggest mistakes a fighter—especially one who has never been on this stage—can make is trying to be something he’s not. You need to fight with the weapons that got you here.

Algieri is an athletic boxer who builds his offensive attack off a stiff jab and movement. His style, reach and length can give Pacquiao more than a couple of problems, but he needs to guard against being drawn into a firefight.

His punching power is a tad underrated, but he can’t expect to win that way against Pacquiao.

And he won’t.

Algieri needs to box from the outside, disrupt with his jab and head movement and hope he has enough pop to give Manny a reason to think twice before attacking.

That’s a lot of things that need to go right.

Possible?

Yes.

Likely?

We’ll see on Saturday night.