Pacquiao vs. Algieri: Odds and Round-by-Round Predictions for Saturday's Fight
One year ago, Chris Algieri was two months off of a seventh-round stoppage of a 12-loss foe named Wilfredo Acuna and three months ahead of a 10-round decision over Emmanuel Taylor, in an ESPN fight that many had portrayed as a spotlight opportunity for the once-beaten Taylor.
One year later, he’s 8,000 miles from home, preparing to fight Manny Pacquiao in China.
But to hear his trainer, Tim Lane, tell it, the 30-year-old Long Islander with dual college degrees and an unbeaten professional record isn’t treating the vastly disparate stages any differently.
“Chris has been handling the pressure like there is no pressure,” Lane said, on a pre-fight media conference call. “There is a lot of relaxation and meditation and ice baths after workouts. This is the Chris Algieri Show. This is what he had visualized for years, and now he has the situation the way he has always dreamt about having it. This is a dream come true, so there is no pressure.
“There is great energy, and Chris is feeding off all of it, and he is stronger than ever.”
Oh, and that Pacquiao fellow, he’s pretty good, too.
Now a month shy of his 36th birthday, the Filipino phenomenon will be making the first defense of his second reign as WBO welterweight champion—though the fight will be contested at a 144-pound weight limit—which began in April when he won a unanimous decision over the man who had ended the first reign in defense No. 4, Timothy Bradley.
Algieri wasn’t exactly a household name at that point, but he leapt into the conversation two months later with a stirring split decision over WBO 140-pound champion Ruslan Provodnikov, a stablemate of Pacquiao whom some figured would eventually share a ring with his more celebrated colleague.
Instead, in the perpetual absence of a fight with Floyd Mayweather Jr. and lukewarm interest in a fifth match on the part of familiar foil Juan Manuel Marquez, it became the well-spoken and camera-friendly Algieri’s chance to step into the spotlight as part of promoter Bob Arum’s latest endeavor into Asia.
Pacquiao and Algieri have been nothing short of gentlemen throughout a cordial build-up, through the champion’s trainer, Freddie Roach, insists that the civility will end when Saturday’s first bell arrives.
“I would love to see a knockout,” he said, on a separate pre-fight media conference call. “I see a knockout coming for sure.”
Date: Saturday, November 22, 2014
Time: HBO PPV starts at 9 p.m. ET; main event around 11 p.m. ET
Venue: The Venetian Macao's Cotai Arena in Macau, China
Odds: Pacquiao (-900), Algieri (+550)
Note: Odds provided by Vegas Insider and correct as of 11/16/2014 at 5:30 p.m. ET; subject to change
Round 1
1 of 7
Algieri will be looking to establish his jab early in Round 1 to use his height and reach advantage to full potential. Pacquiao will take a few of these punches to assess Algieri's timing. With Pacquiao's experience, it won't take him too long to get a read on Algieri's jab, and he'll be able to land a good shot in the opening stanza to give the fight its first fireworks. It won't win the round, but it will establish a storyline.
10-9 Algieri
Round 2
2 of 7
Algieri is a precise and effective puncher but not one with significant dissuasive power—as evidenced by just eight knockouts in 20 wins. That was still enough to get him through against a limited brawler like Provodnikov, but he'll have more issues with a fighter like Pacquiao, who can create opportunities with his own speed and superior (to Provodnikov) technique. The difference will begin to show as Algieri is unable to create the space against the Filipino that he did against the Siberian.
10-9 Pacquiao
Round 3
3 of 7
Though he may be outgunned, no one can question Algieri's smarts or his guts. He climbed off the deck twice against Provodnikov and fought the majority of the fight with a sickeningly swollen eye. That fortitude will again be called on by the close of three rounds against Pacquiao, who'll not only be winging his usual concussive shots to the head but also working the American's body in an effort to slow his movement. As rounds pass by, that impact will become more and more noticeable.
10-9 Pacquiao
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Round 4
4 of 7
One of the edges Algieri had in the Provodnikov fight was the element of surprise, in addition to his technical acumen when compared to the then-140-pound champion's skill set. He doesn't have that this time, because Pacquiao's in-corner confidant, Roach, was working the beaten man's corner in June and saw what Algieri had to offer up close. He has a better horse in this race, and he'll instruct Pacquiao to punish the challenger to the rib cage. By the end of four rounds, the question being asked of Algieri will be less about "what can he do?" and more about "how much can he take?"
10-9 Pacquiao
Round 5
5 of 7
It's worth pointing out that Pacquiao has a stoppage victory over the present holder of the lineal world championship at middleweight (Miguel Cotto). That victory came thanks to a perpetually punishing attack largely made possible because of significant edges in hand and foot speed. Against Algieri, he has those same advantages and is in against a guy who's far less likely to turn the tide with a single punch. The prolonged punishment will impact the scorecards in Round 5, when Algieri hits the floor courtesy of a left hand that he's no longer able to elude.
10-8 Pacquiao
Round 6
6 of 7
The round will begin with most assuming it's just a matter of time before a one-sided bout ends. Pacquiao's grinding attack restarts, and Algieri hits the deck for a second time from another left hand that he has no effective defense for. The unsteady rise is quickly followed by a flurry along the ropes that brings a signal of surrender from the challenger's corner inside the first 90 seconds of the session.
Final Wrap
7 of 7
Few people saw the fight coming, and even fewer gave Algieri a real chance at winning it, so the aftermath is far more a celebration of Pacquiao's continued world-class prowess than a dissection of an elaborately staged mismatch. The calls for a Mayweather fight will come, and Pacquiao will continue to claim a genuine interest, alongside Arum's perpetual propaganda that the Money Team only needs to ring his phone to get a deal done.
Regardless of that chronic dog-and-pony show, however, the reality to be drawn from the China trip is that Pacquiao is still one of the world's best fighters regardless of weight class. Furthermore, Algieri boosted his brand with a whirlwind pre-fight performance and is likely to get more face time (albeit on lesser stages) among the crowded ranks at 140 pounds.
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