5 Fights to Make for Kelvin Gastelum After UFC 180
Kelvin Gastelum's storybook ride from last pick of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen to top-10 welterweight became a stark reality on December 15. The TUF 17 winner submitted Jake Ellenberger at the end of their first round co-main event spot at UFC 180.
The No. 11 ranked Gastelum took on the seventh-ranked UFC welterweight in a fight that was set to prove one of two things. Either Gastelum was going to solidify himself as a top-10 welterweight contender, or Ellenberger was going to silence critics and put the breaks on the rising prospect. What happened was nothing short of astonishing. The 23-year-old Gastelum finished The Juggernaut with a rear-naked choke in the closing seconds of the first frame, after a takedown and subsequent scramble.
Gastelum, a winner of four straight, was in trouble late, but brilliantly reversed the position and quickly took the back of the reeling Ellenberger. The Mexican fighter put on a great display of jiu-jitsu, but that wasn't the only highlight. After it appeared that Ellenberger was getting the best of him striking-wise, Gastelum landed a critical takedown and was able to land a few powerful shots.
With the win over Ellenberger, Gastelum enters the top-10 of the 170-pound division and will require another elite test. Here are five potential opponents for the rising welterweight. For the purposes of this list, bouts were ranked based on their likelihood of occurring.
5. Rory MacDonald
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The proficient MacDonald recently put the finishing touches on a title-worthy resume following his third-round TKO of Tarec Saffiedine.
The 25-year-old former prospect blossomed before our eyes over the past three years, compiling an 8-1 record en route to a likely title shot. MacDonald's technique is as smooth as his cool, calm and collected personality. He is as accurate as any welterweight out there, landing four significant strikes per minute while absorbing close to half that number.
Despite not having a wrestling background, like his apprentice Georges St-Pierre, his takedown defense and accuracy rival that of other 170-pound competitors. There is no reason for MacDonald to take this fight against a rising contender, other than to stay active. It could be a potential six-month layoff for The Canadian Psycho before he sees either Hendricks or Lawler.
MacDonald would be a steep upgrade in competition for Gastelum. The Canadian enjoys a significant reach advantage over the undefeated fighter and has stuffed many a welterweight's takedowns. Gastelum's stand-up skills are novice compared to MacDonald's, which could make for a long night if these two were to run into each other.
For Gastelum, this would show how he stacks up against the very best of the welterweight division—and a win would undoubtedly secure him a title shot. It's not as if Gastelum hasn't proved people wrong before.
4. The Winner of Matt Brown/Tarec Saffiedine
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Earlier this year, Matt Brown lost (rather impressively) against the No. 1 welterweight contender Robbie Lawler in July.
The fifth-ranked Brown now has his sights set on former Strikeforce champion Tarec Saffiedine, who he will face on January 24. Saffiedine is a technical striker who recently had his five-fight win streak snapped by Rory MacDonald. Brown, on the other hand, is your scrappy, always-in-your-face type of brawler strapped with KO power. Neither fighter is hell-bent on taking his opponent down.
No. 9 Saffiedine poses a significant threat to Gastelum on the feet with his various experience in striking styles like Karate, Muay Thai and Taekwondo. Perhaps more detrimental to Gastelum, if he were to face the Lebanese/Belgian fighter, is Saffiedine's 85-percent takedown defense rate. He is also comfortable striking from both the orthodox and southpaw stance.
The 33-year-old Brown, when he's not gutting it out in an all-out war, can scrap for takedowns and defend them at a decent clip as well. A savvy fighter like Gastelum may be able to use Brown's aggressiveness to his advantage and put him on his back.
A win over either fighter vaults Gastelum into title contention. Another impressive finish and a title shot may be inevitable. However, the date of this fight throws a wrench into Gastelum's future plans if he wants to remain active.
3. The Winner of Hector Lombard/Josh Burkman
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Vicious knockout artist and judo specialist Hector Lombard takes on the returning Josh Burkman at UFC 182 on January 3.
Burkman, who compiled a 5-5 record before his initial ouster from the promotion, achieved a 4-1 record in the World Series of Fighting before getting the call back. The 34-year-old is a high-level striker who sports a solid ground game. One of his memorable wins in WSOF was his first-round guillotine choke victory over Jon Fitch.
The Cuban-born Lombard continues his path of destruction in the UFC, which includes KO wins over Nate Marquardt and Rousimar Palhares. Though Lombard elects to conduct business with his hands—he is the owner of 19 career knockouts—he is more than capable of taking the fight to the ground, as he did against Jake Shields in March.
For Gastelum, the pair present unique challenges. Lombard is a southpaw fighter, like Gastelum, who is capable of dropping you with one punch. When pitted against the Cuban, there is very little margin for error. Size would also need to be taken into account, with Lombard being the larger of the two. There was a reason Gastelum competed at middleweight from 2010-2013.
Lombard also sports one of the best takedown defense percentages of the 170-pound division at 82 percent. A fight with Lombard would tell us if Gastelum has made improvements in his striking game, as well as wrestling.
Burkman, on the other hand, is extremely well-rounded and has fought a bevvy of welterweight talent. He is battle-tested and owns many first-round victories, including his last three wins. An orthodox striker, Burkman does switch stances on several occasions during fights. Gastelum's stand-up still needs some work, but his chin is there—and if his performance verse Ellenberger is any indication, the TUF winner won't go down easily.
A fight with either of the two makes sense, provided they both come out of the clash relatively unscathed.
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2. Carlos Condit
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The Natural Born Killer has been out of commission since his TKO loss to Tyron Woodley earlier this year. After undergoing ACL replacement surgery for an injury sustained during the bout, Condit is targeting a return in early 2015.
Condit is still one of the best welterweights in the world. Currently ranked fourth in the 170-pound division, he has defeated a who's who of contenders. Condit earned his nickname by finishing Rory MacDonald, Dan Hardy and Dong Hyun Kim.
He remains one of the most dangerous fighters in the stacked welterweight division. A matchup with Gastelum is one that Condit could be looking at upon his return from injury. Despite Condit's desire for rematches, a fight with someone who has the wrestling pedigree of Gastelum would be a perfect tuneup before he takes on members of the upper echelon of 170-pounders.
This is not to say that Gastelum is a pushover, as he quickly seized an opportunity to finish a former top contender, but that he's a fighter who's constantly evolving and would provide an excellent opportunity for both men. Condit has had trouble with wrestlers like Johny Hendricks, Tyron Woodley and Georges St-Pierre. The fight also gives Gastelum another chance to neutralize a top striker.
The health of both men will be key in scheduling a potential bout, but it appears that Gastelum didn't absorb too much damage in his last fight. Regardless, there are not many opportunities to fight for Gastelum—with several pivotal welterweight tilts scheduled over the next few months—aside from a matchup with this American Top Team fighter.
1. Tyron Woodley
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Woodley was last seen taking out top-10 welterweight Dong Hyun Kim in the latter's backyard.
The 32-year-old is as dangerous as they come, boasting knockout power in both hands and a lengthy NCAA Division I wrestling resume. Woodley has achieved a 4-2 record in the UFC, typically using his stand-up game to defeat the likes of Condit and Josh Koscheck.
The one knock that Woodley has against him is his propensity for floundering in fights of the utmost importance. The No. 3 welterweight put on less-than-stellar showings against Jake Shields and, most recently, Rory MacDonald. In both fights, Woodley was outworked and controlled by men with more gritty and intelligent game plans.
A fight with Gastelum would help strengthen his case for a title shot. A victory over the southpaw—Woodley holds a win over southpaw Kim—keeps him in the top-five and reminds fans why his takedown defense is still one of the best in the welterweight division. However, he may likely be slotted with the loser of the upcoming 170-pound title fight between Johnny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler.
A win over Woodley would present two feats for the surging Gastelum: He would not only be defeating a high-caliber wrestler, but also a potent striker. As he continues his climb, he will need to adjust to the level of competition accordingly by shoring up his weaknesses (one of them being his striking). This matchup has a good chance of materializing (due to the upcoming divisional fights that are lined up, and because of the fact that Woodley hasn't fought in nearly three months).
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