Odds of Hanley Ramirez Signing Blockbuster Deal with Each Top Possible Suitor

When it comes to available players and natural talent, Hanley Ramirez sits alone on the throne in MLB.

Capable of hitting for average and power while causing problems for the opposition when he reaches base safely, a healthy Han-Ram can impact a game like few other players.

Therein lies the problem, though: Ramirez can't stay healthy.

Only once since the 2010 season—in 2012—has he managed to play in more than 130 games. Over the last two seasons, he's appeared in 214 of a possible 324 regular-season games—a 66 percent clip.

That's not good for any player, especially for one who's looking for a multiyear contract that pays him at least $20 million a season. Back in May, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported that Ramirez was seeking a five- or six-year deal worth $130 million.

Having turned down the Dodgers' qualifying offer, Ramirez now carries the additional cost of a compensatory draft pick, something that we saw stifle the markets for players like Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales only a year ago.

While Ramirez, a shortstop, has let it be known that he's open to a position change, telling teams that he'll play "wherever there's a need," according to Heyman, there are legitimate questions about his ability to provide at least league-average defense at any position.

When you combine all those things, it makes handicapping Ramirez's chances of signing with each of his possible suitors a near-impossible task. But let's give it a shot anyway, shall we?

Based on what the rumor mill has spit out thus far, what we know about the teams believed to be interested in him and how he'd fit with each of them, here are the odds of Han-Ram signing a blockbuster nine-figure deal with each of his possible suitors.

Seattle Mariners (15-to-1)

As I wrote last week, Seattle is the one team that doesn't seem to be concerned about Ramirez's health or questionable defense—and that makes the Mariners the favorite to land the former MVP candidate.

Given the record-breaking 10-year, $240 million deal that it handed to second baseman Robinson Cano last winter, spending lavishly in free agency isn't an issue for the club.

While Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported that some believe the team won't hand out another deal worth more than $100 million, it's no secret that one of the team's priorities this offseason is to add another impact bat.

With Victor Martinez no longer an option, having re-signed in Detroit, and Nelson Cruz looking to be paid through his 40th birthday, Ramirez is, by far, the most explosive—and intriguing—bat available. 

Duane Burleson/Associated Press/Associated Press

A move to third base isn't an option with the Mariners given Kyle Seager's presence, but Ramirez could see time at shortstop, in a corner outfield spot or even as the team's full-time designated hitter, the latter of which would limit the amount of wear and tear that he puts on his body.

It's also worth noting that Ramirez and Cano are friends, something that shouldn't be glossed over. While money ultimately talks, the chance to form a double-play combination with a familiar face could make the Mariners far more attractive for Ramirez than some of the other clubs in contention for his services.

Houston Astros (25-to-1)

Owner Jim Crane left little doubt that the Astros would see a significant increase in payroll this winter, telling MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that he expected it to jump by at least $20 million as the team's legal battle over television rights was drawing to a close:

"

It [the television rights] has a big impact on what we'll be able to spend. We're still on plan. The intent is to go out and sign some free agents, and Jeff's [general manager Jeff Luhnow] working on that now, and continue to have a meeting in the middle with the farm system and the guys developing quickly.

"

With their TV issues behind them, the Astros may have even more money available to spend than previously indicated.

Boosting the offense isn't the only need for the rebuilding club, which conceivably needs to add at least one established arm to its rotation, but signing Ramirez would certainly boost an offense that had the American League's second-lowest scoring lineup in 2014.

Yet, as Rosenthal points out, finding a long-term spot for Ramirez isn't as easy as it would seem:

That said, adding Ramirez would send a huge message, both to the team's embattled fanbase and the rest of baseball, that the club is ready to take a major step forward from its perpetually never-ending rebuilding process.

Increasing attendance at Minute Maid Park, where the team played to an average crowd of roughly 21,600—which translates to a nearly half-empty ballpark, according to ESPN—is likely just as important for the Astros as increasing their on-field success.

Adding Ramirez would give the team a chance to accomplish both goals with one move.

Mystery Team (50-to-1)

Whether you've followed the comings and goings of baseball's hot-stove league for years or only recently got hooked, one thing we've come to learn is that there's almost always a mystery team involved with high-profile free agents.

In many cases, Team X is never actually identified and fades into the background as negotiations between an available player and his more well-known suitors kick into high gear. But every once in a while, Team X comes out of nowhere and lands its man.

We'll put the odds at 50-to-1 only because, without knowing the identity of the mystery team, there's really no way to deliver an educated, well-thought-out analysis of that team's chances.

New York Yankees (50-to-1)

It's true that Mark Feinsand and Bill Madden of the New York Daily News have reported that the Yankees have no intention of getting involved with the highest-priced free agents available this winter.

It's also true that the team's recent forays into the free-agent market have delivered mixed results. While Jacoby Ellsbury and Masahiro Tanaka were good for the club last year, Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann were disappointing.

A 50 percent success rate, when you're committing more than $400 million in current and future payroll, doesn't cut it, not even for a team with endless pockets like the Yankees.

But the club has three glaring holes in its infield, with only first baseman Mark Teixeira ensured of a job. Second base, third base and, for the first time in two decades, shortstop are all positions that need to be filled.

We've also seen this from the Yankees before, where the club claims to have no interest in a particular player only to swoop in and sign him before anyone knows what happened. Think back to the 2008 offseason, when the club seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Teixeira, who by all indications was headed to Boston.

That said, it's entirely possible that the club is serious about not pursuing high-priced talent this winter, and the questions surrounding Ramirez could very well be enough to keep the Yankees away.

Toronto Blue Jays (75-to-1)

The Blue Jays wasted little time in reaching out to Ramirez's representatives this offseason, but as Fox Sports' Jon Paul Morosi notes, that doesn't mean that he's at the top of the team's wish list:

According to CBC Sports' Alex Maveal, Blue Jays president Paul Beeston, while a guest on Toronto sports talk radio station The Fan, indicated that the team's Opening Day payroll could increase to the $137 million range, roughly $10 million more than it was a year ago.

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With just over $100 million in payroll on the books for 2015—not including arbitration raises due to a number of players, including Brett Lawrie, that's probably not enough room to fit a multiyear deal with an annual average value of at least $20 million into the budget.

Where Ramirez would fit on the field is also a concern. While the club could slide Lawrie back to second base, opening up the hot corner for Ramirez, recently acquired Devon Travis figures to get the first crack at winning that job in spring training.

Ultimately, Ramirez could be viewed as a replacement for Melky Cabrera in left field, but between his lack of experience at the position and the fact that re-signing the Melkman would be a less expensive endeavor for the team, the whole premise seems unlikely.

Boston Red Sox (80-to-1)

With Pablo Sandoval set to visit Boston this week, per Heyman, it would appear that the Red Sox have a fairly decent shot of landing their primary offseason target. But it always helps to have a Plan B to fall back on just in case.

It's easy to forget that Ramirez began his career in Boston, but the once highly touted prospect took only two at-bats in a Red Sox uniform before he was traded to the then-Florida Marlins in November 2005 for Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota.

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Sticking Ramirez at third base, at least until David Ortiz retires, when he could take over as the team's full-time DH, wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for Boston. But while the team has money to spend, the Red Sox are also looking to bring back staff ace Jon Lester, who, like Sandoval and Ramirez, is going to command a deal in excess of $100 million.

Given Ramirez's issues and other options to fill third base, both in free agency (Chase Headley) and internally (Garin Cecchini, Brock Holt and Will Middlebrooks), the team may not be comfortable signing him to the kind of deal that he seeks.

Los Angeles Dodgers (100-to-1)

According to ESPN Los Angeles' Mark Saxon, Ramirez doesn't appear to be even a blip on the Dodgers' radar this winter: "There has been no internal dialogue about retaining Ramirez on a multiyear deal. The Dodgers will take the compensatory draft pick they get for losing Ramirez and move on."

It would take a perfect storm for this scenario to unfold.

During that storm, the Dodgers would have to fail in their search for Ramirez's replacement at shortstop and be convinced that top prospect Corey Seager and Cuban import Alex Guerrero aren't capable of handling the position.

Additionally, Ramirez would have to see his market dry up and be open to signing a one-year incentive-laden deal to re-establish his value.

The chances of any of that happening are slim, but we can't completely close the door on Ramirez's career in Los Angeles until he's signed, sealed and delivered elsewhere.

Unless otherwise linked/noted, all statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

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