NFL Week 11 Predictions: Spread Selections and Examining Teams on Upset Alert

When the dust settles following Week 11 around the NFL a much clearer playoff picture should begin to emerge. Since there's no shortage of big games on the slate, plenty of questions that have lingered for weeks should get answered.

Whether it's the measuring stick game between the Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals, the huge test for the Mark Sanchez-led Philadelphia Eagles against the Green Bay Packers or the Seattle Seahawks looking to show their championship pedigree as they face the Kansas City Chiefs, it's a marquee week.

And that group only scratches the surface of what's on tap for what could be a chaotic Sunday. So let's check out a complete list of selections against the spread for Week 11. That's followed by a closer look at a pair of favorites on upset alert.

Week 11 Spread Predictions

Date	Road	Home	Line	Pick
Nov. 16	Vikings	Bears	CHI -2.5	CHI
Nov. 16	Texans	Browns	CLE -3.5	HOU
Nov. 16	Falcons	Panthers	ATL -1	CAR
Nov. 16	Bengals	Saints	NO -7.5	CIN
Nov. 16	Buccaneers	Redskins	WSH -7.5	TB
Nov. 16	Broncos	Rams	DEN -9.5	DEN
Nov. 16	49ers	Giants	SF -4	SF
Nov. 16	Seahawks	Chiefs	Even	SEA
Nov. 16	Raiders	Chargers	SD -10	SD
Nov. 16	Lions	Cardinals	ARZ -1	ARZ
Nov. 16	Eagles	Packers	GB -5.5	PHI
Nov. 16	Patriots	Colts	IND -3	NE
Nov. 17	Steelers	Titans	PIT -6	PIT

Favorites on Upset Alert

Cleveland Browns

For the Browns, an organization which hasn't made the playoffs in 11 years, being in a position where they are on "upset alert" at this stage of the season is a positive step. Normally at this stage of the season the conversation is shifting toward Cleveland playing the role of spoiler.

Instead, the upstart group is 6-3 and sitting atop the AFC North. Brian Hoyer has provided the stability under center that's often been missing during the extended postseason drought. The running game and an opportunistic defense (tied for seventh in takeaways) have taken care of the rest.

There are a couple reasons for concern as they face off with the Houston Texans, though.

The biggest one is the return of Jadeveon Clowney and Brian Cushing. Houston's defense was a liability in the first half of the campaign, in large part because of the lack of production and injury absences from those two linebackers. It's an example of the bye week coming at a good time.

Jayson Braddock of KBME notes both appear ready to roll:

The other issue for Cleveland is the uncertainty involved with the Texans changing quarterbacks. Ryan Mallett will step in for an ineffective Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's the less experienced option, but gives the underdogs a signal-caller who should do a better job of stretching the field vertically.

Brian Smith of the Houston Chronicle passed along comments from Browns head coach Mike Pettine, who admitted there was some mystery about how Houston would attack after the switch.

"We know he has a huge arm," Pettine said. "And you can only look at so much preseason tape—he didn't play a ton of reps in this year's preseason; you go back to some of his New England stuff. But that's the unknown: How much will their offense change with him in there?"

Uncertainty is never a positive when it comes to preparing a game plan.

All told, the Texans' defense should definitely improve with the return of Clowney and Cushing. There's also a good chance the offense performs at a higher level following the change under center. That makes for a difficult challenge for Cleveland, even with Arian Foster out due to a groin injury.

The Browns must play better than they did in their last two home games, wins over the Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, to knock of the Texans this week.

Indianapolis Colts

Going up against the New England Patriots is a proving ground for the Colts. Their only losses so far have come when facing teams with high-flying offenses: the Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles and Pittsburgh Steelers amid Ben Roethlisberger's hot streak.

Obviously Tom Brady and the Patriots fall into that category. The question is whether Indianapolis' pass defense, which ranks 27th and is the team's biggest weakness, can step up enough to help the Colts win what's likely to become a shootout.

One essential factor if that's going to happen is slowing down Rob Gronkowski. After a sluggish start to the campaign coming off an injury, the tight end has at least five catches in five straight games and five touchdowns over that span.

Anna Fogel of Fox Sports provided the thoughts of Colts head coach Chuck Pagano about what Brady's favorite red-zone target brings to the table.

"They obviously had playmakers a year ago. It just only makes them more of a nightmare, if you want to put it that way," Pagano said. "... Tom's spreading the ball around, but Rob's a matchup nightmare. It's all hands on deck to try to make sure that that guy doesn't wreck a game. You see everybody trying to do that, but he finds a way to make unbelievable plays."

If the defense doesn't hold up, it will once again be up to Andrew Luck to carry the load. Given the fact there are so many top-end quarterbacks playing right now, his performance during the early years of his career probably doesn't get nearly enough attention.

NFL on ESPN passed along the numbers in comparison with Brady:

Ultimately, if the Colts want to emerge as serious championship contenders in a season where another Brady vs. Peyton Manning duel is growing more probable each week, these are the types of games they need to win. They must beat the top quarterbacks.

It's hard to have confidence they can do it given the struggles in the secondary. But the Colts can improve their outlook by holding serve with a win over the Pats at home this week.