NASCAR Chase 2014: Full Rankings and Predictions Before Final Race
The Ford EcoBoost 400 is the 36th and final race in the 2014 Sprint Cup Series. For the four drivers still in contention for the 2014 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup championship, it's really the only one that matters.
Yes, this nascent Sprint Cup format has turned the Homestead-Miami Speedway into a do-or-die contest. Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman and Denny Hamlin will all be chasing first place at Homestead-Miami Speedway, just like the rest of the other drivers.
However, a win is no prerequisite for Sprint Cup glory. The best finisher of the foursome wins the Chase and gets their name in the NASCAR record book alongside the likes of Tony Stewart and the incomparable Jimmie Johnson.
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The visceral, compelling nature of one race deciding the championship should make for an entertaining afternoon in Homestead, even though the format that delivered this event isn't without controversy or dissenting opinion.
Here are the latest Sprint Cup standings complete with power rankings for the final four chasing immortality in Florida.
| Kevin Harvick | 4 | 5000 | 4 | 1 |
| Denny Hamlin | 11 | 5000 | 1 | 2 |
| Joey Logano | 22 | 5000 | 5 | 3 |
| Ryan Newman | 31 | 5000 | 0 | 4 |
Predictions
It's all about where each driver finishes in this race, but that isn't to say where one starts won't have a significant impact on how this race might play out on Sunday. Here is a look at the drivers' qualifying results from Friday afternoon.
| 5 | Kevin Harvick | 179.946 | 30.009 |
| 8 | Denny Hamlin | 179.348 | 30.109 |
| 9 | Joey Logano | 179.259 | 30.124 |
| 21 | Ryan Newman | 178.241 | 30.296 |
Newman's results are obviously very disappointing and put him at an obvious disadvantage as compared to the other drivers, who are clumped in the top 10.
A Sprint Cup championship win for Newman would likely spark a fiery debate in the racing community, as he does not have a win all season and is still in contention due to his impressive consistency rather than any singular, galvanizing performances. The Sporting News' Bob Pockrass gave his take on how some might react to a Newman championship back in mid-October:
"If he wins the championship, it wouldn’t be right to say he hasn’t earned it. It wouldn’t be right to say he doesn’t belong on stage. He has done what he’s needed to do. The only question would be is whether he had a season that was championship worthy.
NASCAR wanted an NCAA tournament feel to its championship. Newman is not necessarily a Cinderella but more an eighth seed from a major conference that keeps finding a way to advance.
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Newman is coming into the race with a slight drop off in form, finishing 15th at the Federated Auto Parts 400 and 11th at the Quicken Loans 500 after five consecutive top-10 finishes. He's a wily competitor, but he will finish furthest back of the four remaining Chase drivers.
Hamlin is feeling fairly confident after hitting the Homestead-Miami Speedway on Friday and coming up with a strong qualifying time. He finished first in this very race in 2013 and has that same kind of winning feeling in 2014.
"I knew we were going to win the race," he said of last year's result, via Yahoo Sports' Kenny Bruce. "I knew in practice we were going to win the race, and my car feels equally as good this time around."
Hamlin also won on this track in 2009 and has a solid average finish of 11.2, per Racing-Reference.info. Still, he wasn't at his best in qualifying, despite his confident comments, and he isn't likely to be the best finisher of the remaining four, although he should still finish within the top 15 overall.
Logano's 20.8 average finish is the lowest of the four drivers at Homestead-Miami Speedway. In fact, he hasn't led for a single lap in five career races at this track, per Racing-Reference.info. That doesn't portend well for Sunday, but Logano should be one of the top overall finishers as he is coming off a top-10 finish at the Quicken Loans 500 despite dealing with some pit-road adversity.
Fox Sports' Jared Turner provided an account of just some of the adversity Logano faced on Nov. 9:
"After leaving pit road in second place following a round of pit stops under a caution for debris on Lap 123, Logano was ordered to the tail end of the longest line for starting to drive away with the fuel can still attached to his Ford. He would have been fine if the can did not leave his pit stall, but it did by only a few feet.
The penalty sent Logano to 29th for the restart, and the Connecticut native struggled to make up major ground while mired in deep traffic on the narrow, 1-mile track.
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Logano would benefit from some restarts and utilize some strategic maneuvering to come away with a sixth-place finish.
"We were able to keep our cool throughout the day," Logano said, via Turner.
Remaining calm under pressure is going to be crucial on Sunday, as the jostling and jockeying for positioning will be incredibly intense.
The 24-year-old has had a remarkable season; his five wins are the most of the four drivers still in the Chase.
Logano's ninth-best qualifying time on Friday and winning experience should have him front-running the race alongside Harvick, the driver with the best chance of crossing the finish line before any of the others in the final four and collecting his first Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup championship.
Harvick has 11 top-10 finishes in 13 starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway and is coming off a win in the Quicken Loans 500.
His remarkable consistency on the course should see him through on Sunday. With four wins this season, Harvick knows what it takes to get a checkered flag and see a race through to the very end. Look for him to win the 2014 Sprint Cup championship with a top-five finish in Homestead.
It should be noted that the top three drivers in the race will be chasing some esteemed competition. Jeff Gordon won the pole on Friday, while Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth and Brad Keselowski round out the top four qualifiers.
Gordon could be highly motivated to win this race, as his second place at the Quicken Loans 500 left him just one point away from staying in in the Chase. Instead, he's already something of an also-ran with all the attention that is heaped on the four still capable of winning the championship. Keselowski also came close in Phoenix, but ended up in fourth when he needed a win. Alas, it was Harvick who took home the prize.
There could also be plenty of contact in this race due to the suffocating nature of the format and the desperation the Harvick, Hamlin, Logano and Newman will feel on Sunday. Aggressive drivers like Keselowski could shape this race and have a significant impact on the outcome by virtue of their presence on the track.
All eyes will be on the final four drivers, but watch for the other top competitors seeking personal glory to help set the tone for the Ford EcoBoost 400.
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