NASCAR Chase 2014: Final Predictions for How Finalists Will Fare at Homestead
The new NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup system isn't without its flaws, but there is no question that it has created more drama than ever before entering Sunday's final race of the season.
A quartet of drivers will have an opportunity to seize their first Sprint Cup title, as Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Ryan Newman are all part of what has been dubbed the "Championship Round" at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Although 39 other drivers will be on the track as well, all eyes will truly be on the four remaining contenders throughout the Ford EcoBoost 400.
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With the likes of Jeff Gordon, Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson out of the picture, the 2014 season could produce the unlikeliest champion ever. Just one race stands between four drivers and championship glory, and here are the final predictions for how each of them will ultimately fare.
Ryan Newman
The new Chase format was supposed to put renewed emphasis on winning races, which is why Newman's advancement to this point is so surprising. He hasn't taken a single checkered flag this season, but his consistent finishes have allowed him to remain in contention.
It took a bold move last week at Phoenix to stay alive, as Newman brushed Kyle Larson aside on the final lap, and it will be interesting to see if that will give him momentum entering the final race. If it does, then NASCAR's Sprint Cup champion could very well be winless.
There is some thought that NASCAR chairman Brian France is dreading the notion of that happening, but he insists otherwise, according to Jenna Fryer of The Associated Press:
In fact, France has even said that Newman's winless season hasn't forced him to consider changes to the Chase moving forward, per Jeff Gluck of USA Today:
Newman obviously has a chance Sunday, but the odds are stacked against him for more reasons than simply not winning. Anything can happen; however, one can only assume that one of the four contenders will find a way to finish in the top five. Newman has just four top-five finishes, which is as many as Paul Menard and two less than Jamie McMurray. Also, he has only one top-five result in 12 tries at Homestead.
His Cinderella run has been fun to watch, but Newman won't end the year with a fairy-tale ending, as he will finish in 16th place.
Joey Logano
Of the four drivers who will vie for a Sprint Cup championship Sunday, Joey Logano is the youngest at 24 years of age. Some may view that as a disadvantage, but the pilot of the No. 22 car doesn't believe that any of his opponents are more prepared for the moment than he is.
According to Mike Hembree of USA Today, Logano is well aware of the fact that all four finalists are in uncharted waters.
"I've never been in this position, but they haven't, either," he said. "None of them have been tied at the last race. It's cool. It will be entertaining. I can promise you that."
In fact, it can be argued that Logano has been consistently better than Harvick, Newman and Hamlin this season. He has the most wins among them with five, and he has the most top-five finishes as well with an impressive 16.
Perhaps the one thing that is truly working against Logano, though, is his lack of success at Homestead. His average finish of nearly 21st place is the worst in terms of those racing for a championship, and his one top-five in five Homestead starts doesn't inspire a ton of confidence.
Logano has even failed to win at Homestead in the Nationwide Series, so it is safe to say that he has an uphill climb in front of him.
He will find a way to remain in the mix for much of Sunday's race, but a 10th-place finish ultimately won't be enough to lift the trophy.
Denny Hamlin
Among the four remaining drivers, none have come closer to winning a championship than Hamlin. A 14th-place finish at Homestead in 2010 left him in second behind Johnson, which left a very bad taste in his mouth, according to ESPN's Marty Smith:
Hamlin is in position to gain some redemption Sunday at a track that has traditionally been kind to him, 2010 notwithstanding. Hamlin has won twice at Homestead, while his three opponents have combined for zero victories there.
That bodes well for his chances, although he has had to battle for consistency all season long. He hasn't won since the 10th race of the season, and his seven top-five results don't exactly jump off the page either. He has finished in the top 10 in five of his past six races, though, which means he may be rounding into form at the perfect time.
Above all else, Hamlin has been able to dig deep and come through with clutch performances throughout the Chase. As he points out, he and the No. 11 team have simply found a way to stay in the thick of things, per NASCAR.com's Alan Cavanna:
Hamlin's never-say-die mentality will serve him well in a one-race scenario, and a fourth-place finish will give him a shot, but it won't quite be enough.
Kevin Harvick
Although Harvick has dealt with plenty of trials and tribulations this season, it is difficult to argue with the notion that his No. 4 car has been more dominant than those of his Chase opponents in most races. That was the case when Harvick took a must-win race last week, and it may very well be true at Homestead too.
According to Jim Utter of The Charlotte Observer, Harvick had the best qualifying run among Chase drivers for the Ford EcoBoost 400:
That obviously doesn't guarantee anything, but it suggests that Harvick has the best feel for the track. His career statistics at Homestead back that up as well. Only Carl Edwards has a better average finish than Harvick's 8.1, and his five top-five results are second only to Gordon's seven.
Harvick also has all the momentum in the world after his dominant victory last week. He has wins in two of his past five races, and he has finished fifth or better in six of his past 10.
If all that isn't enough, he seems to have the mental edge as well. Rather than waiting his turn during a post-qualifying press conference, Harvick interrupted in what was presumably an attempt to play mind games with his opponents, per Jay Busbee of Yahoo Sports:
Harvick is well overdue for a title, and he may very well be racing better now than ever before. He has a golden opportunity in front of him, and he will make the most of it by winning at Homestead and winning the Sprint Cup championship in the process.
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