Champions Classic 2014: Preview and Prediction for Tuesday's Games

In what is rapidly becoming our favorite annual tradition, the Champions Classic will serve as the capstone for the 24-hour tipoff marathon, pitting Michigan State against Duke and Kansas against Kentucky.

This past weekend was just the appetizer. Heck, it wasn't even a proper appetizer. It was a slice of cheese that we ate out of the refrigerator in hopes of holding us over until getting some actual sustenance.

Now, it's time for the first course.

There are a lot of days throughout the first few weeks of the season on which any number of games could serve as the most intriguing one to various fans, but there's no debating that the Champions Classic is what we'll all be watching Tuesday night.

So aside from featuring four of the greatest coaches in college basketball history, what should we expect when these outstanding games tip off in Indianapolis?

Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan State Spartans

Al Goldis/Associated Press

Forbes 300

While some coaches are afforded the luxury of simply throwing last year's starting five back out onto the court with minor modifications, Tom Izzo is practically starting over from scratch.

No more Adreian Payne, Gary Harris or Keith Appling. Even Kenny Kaminski—the stretch 4 who served as one of the team's primary bench players last season—is out of the picture, transferring to Ohio University after just one season at Michigan State.

There are still a few familiar faces in green and white. Denzel Valentine started 32 games last season, and Branden Dawson would have started more than 24 games if he hadn't broken his hand midway through the year. The Spartans also have Travis Trice, Matt Costello and Gavin Schilling in the mix for another year. College Basketball Talk's Rob Dauster was impressed with Trice's performance:

There's a pretty noticeable gap in the backcourt, though.

Alvin Ellis III got the start Friday night against Navy, but he injured his ankle early in the game. Even if he was healthy, though, Ellis only averaged 1.9 points per game last season and finished the year with nearly twice as many turnovers (22) as assists (14).

It should only be a matter of time before Cleveland State transfer Bryn Forbes earns a starting job, and perhaps his breakout game will come Tuesday against Duke.

Forbes is playing with an injury of his own, as he attempts to tough through a broken non-shooting hand. He averaged 15.6 points per game last season for the Vikings. Forbes shot better than 42 percent from three-point range and put up 22 points in a road loss to Kentucky last November. He's not afraid of the spotlight.

Oka-Force in the Paint

Karl B DeBlaker/Associated Press

Maybe Costello is a diamond in the rough for Michigan State. He only averaged 14.7 minutes per game last season, but his block percentage (10.1) was more than double the next best on the team. He was an above-average rebounder and scored efficiently (59.8 percent from the field).

But only one big man in this game is likely to hear his name called in the first round of the 2015 NBA draft—let alone as the No. 1 overall pick.

Jahlil Okafor—and frankly all of Duke's freshmen—put up some ridiculous numbers over the weekend against Presbyterian and Fairfield, but now it's time to see what he can do against a real team. ESPN's Jeff Goodman provided stats for Duke's freshmen:

The nation's top freshman and one of the top candidates for the 2015 Wooden Award is everything the Blue Devils were lacking last season. Jabari Parker led the team in rebounding while playing center with the body of a small forward.

Duke was destroyed in the paint all season long, allowing 60.2 percent of its opponents' points to come on two-point field goals—the third-highest percentage in the nation, according to KenPom.com (subscription required).

He is a huge addition on both ends of the court, both literally and figuratively. If the Blue Devils are going to live up to expectations and compete for a national championship, Okafor will need to be the reason why.

Deliberate Efficiency

In each of the past three seasons, Duke has finished top 10 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com but has ranked outside the top 95 in adjusted tempo all three seasons.

The Spartans haven't been quite as efficient, but they have finished in the top 28 in adjusted offensive efficiency for three straight years while ranking outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo each year.

That means we could be treated to a relatively low-scoring game but not of the ugly variety.

In the end, Duke is too big and too talented for Michigan State. The Spartans should improve considerably as the season progresses, but they may take a few lumps while figuring out everyone's role, starting with this statement win for Duke.

Prediction: Duke 79, Michigan State 64

Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kentucky Wildcats

USA TODAY Sports

Deep End

Kansas produced two of the top three picks in the 2014 NBA draft. Kentucky was responsible for two of the top 17 picks.

That would probably be enough to cripple most teams for a year or two but not these powerhouses.

Both Kansas and Kentucky bring in two of the top 10 freshmen in the country, as graded by 247Sports. Kentucky also adds two other McDonald's All-Americans, while the Jayhawks gain a third freshman who will fill the bulk of the point guard duties this season.

USA TODAY Sports

Kansas will rely heavily on these freshmen, with Cliff Alexander, Kelly Oubre and Devonte Graham all playing a big role Tuesday against the Wildcats. None of them started in the season opener against UC Santa Barbara, though we may at least see Graham start after a 26-minute, 14-point outing off the bench Friday.

Kentucky, on the other hand, could be the favorites in this game without starting a single one of its four 5-star freshmen. Karl Towns Jr. will probably start at power forward but expect Trey Lyles, Tyler Ulis and Devin Booker to all come off the bench for the most loaded team in the country.

This won't be 10 against five, though. Kansas has the necessary depth to give Kentucky some serious fits. Landon Lucas, Jamari Traylor and Hunter Mickelson will each play a big role in the frontcourt, and Brannen Greene, Frank Mason and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk should be key contributors in the backcourt.

Both of these teams could legitimately go 11 or 12 deep all season long.

Lottery Forwards

Though we built up the game between Duke and Kansas in last year's Champions Classic as Jabari Parker vs. Andrew Wiggins, it wasn't anything of the sort. Parker spent most of the game trying to slow down Perry Ellis or Joel Embiid, while Wiggins spent most of his time on the court dealing with Rodney Hood.

This game, however, will pit two of the top five picks in next year's draft against one another.

For Kansas, Alexander is the key to everything. Perry Ellis or Wayne Selden Jr. may well end up leading the team in scoring, but the big freshman will be the engine expected to drive this bus to an 11th straight Big 12 title. He isn't quite as polished as Jahlil Okafor, but we doubt Kansas fans will complain about getting a slightly raw version of a young Charles Barkley.

Alexander didn't play a ton in the opener, but he had nine points, four rebounds and a block in just 12 minutes of action.

Even against a gigantic team like Kentucky, it'll be all but impossible to keep Alexander from getting to where he wants to be. Julius Randle put up 15.0 points per game and 10.4 rebounds per game last season for Kentucky, and that's about what we're expecting Alexander to do this year for Kansas. Alexander recently commented about playing against Kentucky, comments shared by Rock Chalk Blog:

"

"Kentucky was a dream school when I was coming up. Now I get to play against them." - Cliff Alexander

— Rock Chalk Blog (@RockChalkBlog) November 15, 2014"

But in lieu of physically forcing Alexander out of the paint, perhaps Towns will be able to lure him to the perimeter.

For most of the season, we (NBA scouts included, presumably) will be looking for Towns to cut back on his three-point shooting by using his 6'11" frame to become a more dominant post presence.

In a game like this, however, with up to five or six extremely capable big men clogging the paint, Towns' range could come in handy. After all, John Calipari's dribble-drive motion offense doesn't work too well if there's no room for Andrew Harrison or Ulis to drive.

If Towns does occasionally float out to the perimeter, it'll be interesting to see how Bill Self counters. Will Alexander step out and defend 20 feet from the basket, or do the Jayhawks switch Oubre onto Towns and hope that Alexander is quick enough to stay in front of Alex Poythress? Or do they send Ellis out to guard Towns and leave Alexander on an island in the paint with some 7'0" behemoth from Kentucky?

Second-Year Shooting Guards

Intriguing as Alexander vs. Towns could be, we would be remiss if we didn't point out the compelling battle on the perimeter between Aaron Harrison and Wayne Selden Jr.

At this time last year, Selden was a projected lottery pick, and Harrison was either a late first-rounder or early second-rounder, depending on the source.

They both stayed for a second season. Selden likely stayed because of the arthroscopic surgery he had on the knee that kept him from remotely fulfilling his potential. Harrison stayed due to some combination of wanting to win a title at Kentucky and hearing all the negative things that were said about his game while we waited for he and his brother to make their decision.

Regardless of the reasons, they're back, and they should be two of the best shooting guards in the entire country.

Both studs had a fairly disappointing start to the season. Selden scored 10 points in 32 minutes, missing each of his three three-point attempts. Harrison put up just seven points in a blowout win over Grand Canyon.

Of the two, Selden figures to be the bigger X-factor, if only because we evidently never saw him at full health last season. With Wiggins, Naadir Tharpe and even Conner Frankamp out of the picture, Selden is the closest thing the Jayhawks have to an incumbent three-point assassin.

It won't be as much of a one-sided three-point show as we saw last year from Yogi Ferrell at Indiana or Marcus Paige at North Carolina, but he's clearly their primary perimeter threat. If he's able to get free from Harrison and outscore him by a considerable margin, Kansas has a great chance to pull off the minor upset.

A lot was made Sunday about the alleged death of Kentucky's platoon system against Buffalo, but nine of the 10 guys played at least 18 minutes. Towns was the only one who didn't, and that's only because he fouled out in just 10 minutes of action.

Get ready for a ton of substitutions as Kentucky capitalizes on its lack of fatigue in conjunction with a size and experience advantage against a young Kansas squad. Should they meet again in March, it will probably be the best game of the entire tournament. Until then, though, the Wildcats are simply better.

Prediction: Kentucky 81, Kansas 70

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.