Duke Basketball: Reasons for Optimism in 2014

The college basketball season is so close I can taste it. With Duke and many other teams set to tip off tonight, anticipation is at an all-time high.

Back in simpler days, Duke fans such as myself went into every season with the highest level of optimism. We could go into every season knowing that we would be a top-10 team all year: our returning stars always improved, role players stepped into bigger roles easily and we were sure our team would cruise to win after win throughout the season.

But our two most recently anticipated teams never reached their potential due to Kyrie Irving’s foot injury and the many factors that held the team back last year.

Because of last year’s disappointing season (gotta be honest: the whole season was bad, not just the loss to Mercer), many fans are entering this season more pessimistic than ever.

I have mentally run through a lot of worst-case scenarios in my head over the last few weeks. Who will get injured? Will Quinn Cook and Rasheed Sulaimon play with any consistency? What if the freshmen are not as good as advertised? Will the defense actually be any better?

There are plenty of fake scenarios to worry about, but with the season so close, my outlook is getting sunnier as the minutes go by. Here are the top things for Duke fans to be optimistic about as we eagerly await the start of the season.

Natural Fits at Every Position

The team’s projected starting lineup has something Duke often seems missing: five players all playing at the position suited to their size and skills. From point guard through center, the lineup of Tyus Jones, Matt Jones, Justise Winslow, Amile Jefferson and Jahlil Okafor has all five positions covered with no one playing out of place. Look at Duke’s starters from the past few years, and you will notice how rare that is.

• 2013-14: no center (Jefferson was our starting center at 6"9' and 210 pounds)
• 2012-13: no small forward (6"4' Sulaimon was the de facto starter at the three)
• 2011-12: no point guard (Seth Curry was the main playmaker)

Those teams were talented but ultimately doomed by their lack of capable players at every position. This year, the team boasts a balanced starting lineup and can also go two deep at every position, except for either small or power forward depending on what type of player Semi Ojeleye really is.

Having this type of team far from guarantees success, but it does take away the glaring weakness opposing coaches know they can take advantage of in every game. Duke will be harder to plan against this season and thus harder to defeat.

Varying Skill Sets

Not only does Duke have players to fill all five spots on the court, but this year’s team should benefit from having athletes who do different things well. Last year, the team’s four best players (Sulaimon, Cook, Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker) all were at their best with the ball in their hands.

This led to some beautiful offensive bursts but also some terrible stretches, as each player took his turn attempting to put the team on his back. The team now has players who help the team in ways other than scoring, and the starting guards are the perfect example.

Tyus Jones is a pass-first point guard who may be too unselfish. In two exhibition games, Jones had 17 assists and only nine field-goal attempts. He knows when to give the ball up and who to give it to. Duke’s offense will be much more organized with him at the helm this season.

Matt Jones is a strong defender who struggled with his shot last year after being projected as a good shooter coming out of high school. When Jones gets the ball, he will either take the open shot or swing the ball around the perimeter to an open player.

Having both of these players in the backcourt will prevent a lot of the ball-stopping and pointless dribbling that plagued the team last year.

Add those two with the heart of both Jefferson and Winslow, and the starting unit should be one that defends, rebounds, runs the offense through Okafor and scores when the opportunity presents itself.

Results from Exhibition Games

Duke won both its preseason games handily, beating Livingstone 115-58 and defeating Division II champion Central Missouri 87-47. Normally, beating up on lesser teams is no reason to get excited, but it shows that Duke is a much stronger team than it was last year.

Duke’s results last season were a 103-67 win over Bowie State and an 81-65 defeat of Drury. The Devils' poor rebounding and defense were apparent in those two contests, and the team was never able to fix its flaws.

This year, very few weaknesses showed up during the exhibition games. Duke overpowered Livingstone from the tip and overcame a cold start from outside against Central Missouri with stout defense and inside scoring. Playing well without shooting well is a concept many Duke fans are completely unfamiliar with.

Blowing out a Division II team is not necessarily cause for optimism, but in the face of last year’s results, it should at least help Duke fans breathe a little easier heading into the season.