Ranking the Top 5 Favorites to Be No. 1 Pick in 2015 NBA Draft
With the college basketball season tipping off, we're looking at five realistic No. 1 overall candidates for the 2015 NBA draft, and only three of them will be suiting up for a Division I team.
In terms of upside, I'm not sure anyone has as much as last year's first pick, Andrew Wiggins, but that shouldn't take away from the talent expected to be there at the top.
Bank on the following five prospects to emerge into the No. 1 overall conversation once it eventually picks up when the season gets underway.
5. Kelly Oubre, Kansas, 6'7", SF, Freshman
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Kelly Oubre offers just enough long-term upside to justify consideration at No. 1, at least in November. That upside is fueled by some electric athleticism mixed with terrific scoring instincts. His body, game and bounce remind you a little bit of Rudy Gay.
At 6'7", Oubre can fly, and that leads to easy buckets above the rim off slashes, cuts and transition opportunities. He's at his best attacking from the wing, where he uses angles to gain a step and finish mostly with his strong left hand.
Oubre's body control is awesome; he finds ways to slow down on the move and convert in traffic under the rim. He can also light it up from the perimeter, arguably his most appealing quality as an 18-year-old prospect.
He's got a quick, confident release as a spot-up shooter. And one-on-one, Oubre has the footwork and ball skills to separate into makable jumpers, along with the touch and range to connect.
Defensively, all the tools are there: size, quickness, length. We could eventually be talking about the most dynamic two-way forward in the class.
4. Kristaps Porzingis, Latvia, 7'0", PF, 1995
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Kristaps Porzingis was looking at the lottery last year before choosing to withdraw from the draft. And now, without an Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid or Jabari Parker to compete with, he'll have a chance to make a case for himself as the top prospect in this field.
Some scouts actually believe he already is, according to ESPN's Chad Ford:
"A number of international scouts I know swear he's the best prospect in the draft. Let's see what he does in Spain this year. Those aren't huge numbers, but given the quality of the league and his age, it's not shabby either.
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Through 11 games for Sevilla in a strong Spanish ACB, Porzingis, 19 years old, is playing 22.1 minutes and averaging 9.0 points, 4.5 boards and 1.5 blocks.
But it's not about the production; it's how he goes about racking it up. Porzingis' versatility is what ultimately drives his enormous NBA upside. At 7'0", he's got a skill set that takes him out to the perimeter, where he can stretch the floor as a shooter or attack closeouts off the dribble.
He's hit nine three-pointers over his first 11 games at a solid 39.1 percent clip. Inside the arc, he's a one-on-one threat out of triple-threat position, where he can either drive or rise up for a jumper whether he's jab-stepping into it or turning over his shoulder for a fadeaway. Off the ball, Porzingis does most of his damage by running the floor, cutting to the hole, finishing drive-and-dumps and spotting up from outside. Easy scoring opportunities just seem to find him.
There's no question he'll have to get stronger—Porzingis doesn't have the frame or demeanor to bang down low. But athletic 7-footers with these types of ball skills are far too rare to overlook. Depending on the questions that arise concerning our top three prospects on the board, Porzingis could very well be this year's sleeper pick at No. 1 overall.
3. Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky, 7'0", C, Freshman
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Karl-Anthony Towns has emerged as a true No. 1 candidate following his standout play during Kentucky's Bahamas trip, where the team faced legitimate international competition this summer.
Offensively, he is multifaceted, and he operates with a high level of comfort for an 19-year-old 7-footer. Towns' skill level is really off the charts. In the post, he's got a back-to-the-basket game to go to, from baseline spin moves to hop-steps into jump hooks. And he has the foot speed to face up and attack, along with the mid-range touch to shoot over his man.
As the season progresses, chances are we'll see a bit more of Towns' jumper—we've seen it during practices and at showcase events prior to his arrival at Kentucky. He really does seem to have some stretch potential, the same type Rasheed Wallace developed during his best years as a pro.
Outside of scoring, Towns has the size and body to clean his area under the glass, and he's an excellent passer, particularly from the elbows. Defensively, Towns has promising tools, though he doesn't bring the same natural rim protection offered by previously drafted centers like Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid. But at this point, the only real question or concern is that, despite being proficient in every aspect of the game, he isn't quite dominant in any.
Still, there's just too much upside tied to Towns' physical tools and diverse yet polished offensive attack. Regardless of what his numbers are in Kentucky's crowded frontcourt this season, don't expect him to stray far from the top-three conversation.
2. Emmanuel Mudiay, China, 6'5", PG, 1996
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A few weeks ago, we would have said Emmanuel Mudiay's decision to play in China over Division I would hurt his chances of going No. 1. That was when nobody knew what type of role he'd have or how well he'd perform against professionals.
Now we do.
He's been absolutely crushing it overseas through five games so far, averaging 19.0 points, 7.0 assists and 6.6 boards on 46.4 percent shooting. Regardless of how weak the Chinese Basketball Association is, these are grown men that Mudiay, 18 years old, has been running out of the gym. Some of them are actually ex-NBA ballers themselves. And most importantly, he's winning games as Guangdong's floor general (huge 28.7 percent usage rate).
From a scouting perspective, there isn't much not to like about Mudiay. At 6'5", he's got mismatch size and athleticism for a point guard with one of the meanest handles you'll see. With the ability to change direction on a dime and get to any spot on the floor, he's capable of creating and setting up teammates for easy scoring opportunities.
Mudiay's offensive attack is balanced. He's a true point guard willing to pass first if that's what the play calls for. And he happens to have strong passing instincts out of pick-and-rolls and off drive-and-kicks.
As a scorer, he's at his best in attack mode, when he can break down the defense and finish before traffic with a floater, around traffic with a layup or above it for a slam. And though Mudiay's jumper has been in question over the past few years, he's actually hit eight of his first 17 three-point attempts abroad, and there aren't any real concerns over his shooting mechanics.
Mudiay's chances of going No. 1 will come down to who gets the pick. Unfortunately for him, there are more teams in need of big men than point guards these days. However, if the Philadelphia 76ers, who just drafted two centers, win the lottery, Mudiay would have the edge. I'm not so sure how sold they are on Michael Carter-Williams.
At this stage, it is reasonable to assume that most of the other bottom-of-the-barrel teams competing for that No. 1 pick would be inclined to go big and ultimately safe with a Division I prospect.
1. Jahlil Okafor, Duke, 6'11", C, Freshman
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Jahlil Okafor offers NBA evaluators the best of both worlds: immediate impact and production, as well as the long-term All-Star upside that justifies a No. 1 overall selection. Unlike the other No. 1 overall candidates outside of Mudiay in China, Okafor will be in position to dominate night after night as a freshman.
He's not a guy who NBA teams will covet based strictly on potential, or someone who coaches will have to hope adds skill over time. It's already there.
"They [Duke's coaches] emphasized me being the most dominant player in college basketball this year. So that’s something I expect of myself," Okafor told Sports Illustrated's Brian Hamilton.
Okafor projects as a big man coaches can feature full time in the post. With that massive 6'11", 272-pound frame, he's got a power game to go to playing back to the basket. And he meshes that power with finesse—Okafor's footwork is tremendous, as is his touch and feel for the rim.
His ability to pose as a go-to option against a set defense is really what drives his value and appeal. But he's also one of the brightest young prospects we've seen out of a high school. Okafor's basketball IQ plays to his effectiveness on the floor, where he's got a sense for seeking out weakness and the killer instinct to pounce.
The only knock on Okafor revolves around his lack of standout athleticism. It's a similar criticism Jabari Parker got last year when stacked up next to Andrew Wiggins. But realistically, Okafor moves about as well as one could for a guy his size. He gets up and down the floor and has the quickness to beat defenders off the bounce in the mid-range.
Defensively, though, he still has plenty to learn, but his gigantic 7'5" wingspan and nimble feet should naturally translate to blocks and rim protection. There's just a sense of safety attached to Okafor, which will only be enhanced once he's lighting up ACC competition on a routine basis.
He's no lock—it's just too early for that—but at this stage, nobody offers a more favorable ratio of risk to potential reward.
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