Which Miami Heat Role Player Has the Most Long-Term Upside?

It takes superstars to win titles. The Miami Heat know this as well as any franchise.

But it also takes a group of talented, committed role players to make any juggernaut really hum. The Heat have learned this lesson, too.

While LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade, at various points, elevated Miami with their postseason excellence.

The Heat’s run to four straight conference championships and a pair of Larry O’Brien Trophies wouldn’t have been possible were it not for, say, Shane Battier’s six three-pointers in Game 7 of the 2013 NBA Finals or Mike Miller’s perimeter explosion in the clincher the previous summer.

At the biggest moments, it’s often the little guys who really stand out.

Which brings us to the young supporting cast Miami has assembled. There probably isn’t a future superstar in the bunch, but there are a handful of players who could be meaningful contributors when Miami makes its next postseason push.

And it’s a push that, based on the loaded free-agent class of 2016—and Miami’s clean cap and track record as a magnet for free agents—could happen even sooner than most realize.

Below is a ranking of how much upside each of Miami’s young guns has and, by extension, how likely each is to be a contributor to the next Heat contender. To keep this exercise simple, we’ll focus on Miami players who are 26 and under—still green enough that significant strides are possible in their respective games.

5) Andre Dawkins

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Dawkins, a 6’5” rookie shooting guard, has played sparingly for Miami. This is unlikely to change.

Most college seniors who play 13.7 minutes a night—which Dawkins did in 2013-14 at Duke—struggle to make an impact in the NBA. Because the NBA is, um, harder than college.

Dawkins does have two things going for him: he has plus size for a shooting guard and an above-average stroke from outside. In his career with the Blue Devils, the 23-year-old shot 40.7 percent from three and, according to DraftExpress’s Jonathan Givony, was tremendous in spot-up opportunities:

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Dawkins played one of the most narrowly confined roles of any player at this tournament in college, as an astounding 78 percent of his offense came off spot-up jumpers, screens, or hand-offs—which he absolutely excelled at, making 42 percent of his three-pointers on the season.

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He’s probably too limited athletically to make much of an impact in the NBA, though. With a personal life marred by tragedy, a lot of people are rooting for Andre Dawkins. But given his shortcomings, at the professional level at least, they probably won’t get an opportunity to root for him for very long.

4) Justin Hamilton

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It’s hard to get a great read on Justin Hamilton given how little we’ve seen of him.

After an up-and-down couple of seasons at Iowa State, Hamilton transferred to LSU, where he put together a fine 2011-12 season, averaging 12.9 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in 30 minutes a night.

After spending some time bouncing around Europe, and spending the first half of 2013-14 in the D-League—where he averaged 19.2 points and 9.3 rebounds for the Sioux Falls Skyforce—he had a cup of coffee with the Charlotte Hornets (nee Bobcats) and landed in Miami.

We haven't really seen him since.

Though Hamilton has been effective—according to Basketball-Reference.com, he’s produced at 26 percent better than the league average rate by measure of win shares per 48 minutes—he’s only played 141 minutes with the Heat.

So the verdict is…we don’t know. Given his size, he’s 7’0” and 260 pounds, and range, he shot 37.8 percent from three in the D-League, he has a chance to catch on as a rotation player.

3) Norris Cole

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Cole was very bad through the first three seasons of his NBA career.

He never posted a win shares per 48 minutes better than .029—.1 is the league average—and he managed to record a career true shooting percentage below 48 while playing in one of the most potent offenses in recent history, according to Basketball-Reference.com.

But there are some who see something in him. He’s an active and eager defender, and he showed Erik Spoelstra and company enough this offseason to get elevated to the starting point guard job.

"He does a lot of things that the average eye probably doesn't even notice," Spoelstra told the Sun Sentinel's Shandel Richardson.

And he’s been better this season. Through eight games, Cole has curbed his turnovers, is on pace to set new careers highs in assists and rebounds per 100 possessions, per Basketball-Reference.com, and is scoring more efficiently than ever before.

At 26, Cole still has some room to grow. If he can continue to rein in his occasionally questionable shot selection, he could be an effective energy player off the bench for Miami for years to come. “Could,” of course, being the operative word.

2) James Ennis

Enough said.

1)  Shabazz Napier

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Shabazz Napier led the nation in win shares in 2013-14, per Sports-Reference.com, and carried UConn to the national title. But since he entered the NBA with the No. 24 pick in June’s draft, it’s been (mostly) downhill for the point guard.

He struggled mightily from the floor in the Orlando and Las Vegas summer leagues, and though he righted the ship somewhat in the preseason, he’s regressed in the first eight games of his pro career that count in the standings.

Napier is shooting 36.7 percent from the floor and just 28.6 percent from the three-point line—both worrisome figures. His age is also an issue. While Napier is a rookie, at 23, he’s older than several established NBA stars. He nearly has two years on Anthony Davis.

Still, Napier has a game that should translate to the NBA level. He’s an aggressive, confident scorer who can get his shot against any competition and he produced so prolifically in college that it would be an upset if he didn’t develop into, at worst, a very productive rotation player.

Napier might not ever lead a professional team to a title—insert your own joke about the NCAA here—but he has more than enough talent to play a supporting role on a champ. And given Miami’s well-established blueprint, that should be plenty good enough.