Which Miami Heat Role Player Has the Most Long-Term Upside?
It takes superstars to win titles. The Miami Heat know this as well as any franchise.
But it also takes a group of talented, committed role players to make any juggernaut really hum. The Heat have learned this lesson, too.
While LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade, at various points, elevated Miami with their postseason excellence.
The Heatโs run to four straight conference championships and a pair of Larry OโBrien Trophies wouldnโt have been possible were it not for, say, Shane Battierโs six three-pointers in Game 7 of the 2013 NBA Finals or Mike Millerโs perimeter explosion in the clincher the previous summer.
At the biggest moments, itโs often the little guys who really stand out.
Which brings us to the young supporting cast Miami has assembled. There probably isnโt a future superstar in the bunch, but there are a handful of players who could be meaningful contributors when Miami makes its next postseason push.
And itโs a push that, based on the loaded free-agent class of 2016โand Miamiโs clean cap and track record as a magnet for free agentsโcould happen even sooner than most realize.
Below is a ranking of how much upside each of Miamiโs young guns has and, by extension, how likely each is to be a contributor to the next Heat contender. To keep this exercise simple, weโll focus on Miami players who are 26 and underโstill green enough that significant strides are possible in their respective games.
5) Andre Dawkins
Dawkins, a 6โ5โ rookie shooting guard, has played sparingly for Miami. This is unlikely to change.
Most college seniors who play 13.7 minutes a nightโwhich Dawkins did in 2013-14 at Dukeโstruggle to make an impact in the NBA. Because the NBA is, um, harder than college.
Dawkins does have two things going for him: he has plus size for a shooting guard and an above-average stroke from outside. In his career with the Blue Devils, the 23-year-old shot 40.7 percent from three and, according to DraftExpressโs Jonathan Givony, was tremendous in spot-up opportunities:
"Dawkins played one of the most narrowly confined roles of any player at this tournament in college, as an astounding 78 percent of his offense came off spot-up jumpers, screens, or hand-offsโwhich he absolutely excelled at, making 42 percent of his three-pointers on the season.
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Heโs probably too limited athletically to make much of an impact in the NBA, though. With a personal life marred by tragedy, a lot of people are rooting for Andre Dawkins. But given his shortcomings, at the professional level at least, they probably wonโt get an opportunity to root for him for very long.
Itโs hard to get a great read on Justin Hamilton given how little weโve seen of him.
After an up-and-down couple of seasons at Iowa State, Hamilton transferred to LSU, where he put together a fine 2011-12 season, averaging 12.9 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in 30 minutes a night.
After spending some time bouncing around Europe, and spending the first half of 2013-14 in the D-Leagueโwhere he averaged 19.2 points and 9.3 rebounds for the Sioux Falls Skyforceโhe had a cup of coffee with the Charlotte Hornets (nee Bobcats) and landed in Miami.
We haven't really seen him since.
Though Hamilton has been effectiveโaccording to Basketball-Reference.com, heโs produced at 26 percent better than the league average rate by measure of win shares per 48 minutesโheโs only played 141 minutes with the Heat.
So the verdict isโฆwe donโt know. Given his size, heโs 7โ0โ and 260 pounds, and range, he shot 37.8 percent from three in the D-League, he has a chance to catch on as a rotation player.
3) Norris Cole
Cole was very bad through the first three seasons of his NBA career.
He never posted a win shares per 48 minutes better than .029โ.1 is the league averageโand he managed to record a career true shooting percentage below 48 while playing in one of the most potent offenses in recent history, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
But there are some who see something in him. Heโs an active and eager defender, and he showed Erik Spoelstra and company enough this offseason to get elevated to the starting point guard job.
"He does a lot of things that the average eye probably doesn't even notice," Spoelstra told the Sun Sentinel's Shandel Richardson.
And heโs been better this season. Through eight games, Cole has curbed his turnovers, is on pace to set new careers highs in assists and rebounds per 100 possessions, per Basketball-Reference.com, and is scoring more efficiently than ever before.
At 26, Cole still has some room to grow. If he can continue to rein in his occasionally questionable shot selection, he could be an effective energy player off the bench for Miami for years to come. โCould,โ of course, being the operative word.
2) James Ennis
Enough said.
1)ย Shabazz Napier
Shabazz Napier led the nation in win shares in 2013-14, per Sports-Reference.com, and carried UConn to the national title. But since he entered the NBA with the No. 24 pick in Juneโs draft, itโs been (mostly) downhill for the point guard.
He struggled mightily from the floor in the Orlando and Las Vegas summer leagues, and though he righted the ship somewhat in the preseason, heโs regressed in the first eight games of his pro career that count in the standings.
Napier is shooting 36.7 percent from the floor and just 28.6 percent from the three-point lineโboth worrisome figures. His age is also an issue. While Napier is a rookie, at 23, heโs older than several established NBA stars. He nearly has two years on Anthony Davis.
Still, Napier has a game that should translate to the NBA level. Heโs an aggressive, confident scorer who can get his shot against any competition and he produced so prolifically in college that it would be an upset if he didnโt develop into, at worst, a very productive rotation player.
Napier might not ever lead a professional team to a titleโinsert your own joke about the NCAA hereโbut he has more than enough talent to play a supporting role on a champ. And given Miamiโs well-established blueprint, that should be plenty good enough.
