NFL Week 11 Picks: Rounding Up Top Experts' Predictions

It's hard to believe that the 2014 NFL season is already in Week 11. It feels like just yesterday the San Diego Chargers were considered one of the best teams in the league.

A lot can happen over the span of a few weeks. The Chargers were riding high after Week 6. Fast-forward to Week 11, and San Diego is third in the AFC West, riding a three-game losing streak.

With nearly every division packed tightly at the top, no game can be taken for granted, because all of a sudden, your team has lost three or four games in a row and is on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs.

NFL fans are spoiled for choice when it comes to intriguing games this week.

Matchup	Matt Bowen	Mike Freeman	Matt Miller	Ty Schalter	Michael Schottey	Mike Tanier
MIN at CHI	MIN	MIN	CHI	MIN	CHI	MIN
HOU at CLE	CLE	CLE	CLE	HOU	CLE	HOU
ATL at CAR	ATL	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR	ATL
CIN at NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
TB at WAS	WAS	WAS	WAS	WAS	WAS	WAS
DEN at STL	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN
SF at NYG	SF	NYG	SF	NYG	NYG	SF
SEA at KC	SEA	KC	SEA	KC	KC	SEA
OAK at SD	SD	SD	SD	SD	SD	SD
DET at ARI	DET	ARI	DET	DET	DET	ARI
PHI at GB	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB
NE at IND	NE	NE	NE	IND	NE	NE
PIT at TEN	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT

Note: You can view each of the picks from B/R's 16 NFL experts here.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions

The Arizona Cardinals have been one of the best teams in the NFL this season, boasting a top-five defense and an offense that's solid if unspectacular.

But now they're out a starting quarterback. Carson Palmer tore his ACL in Week 10, and the Cardinals placed him on injured reserve. Drew Stanton will take over for the rest of the year.

There are major question marks about whether Stanton can keep Arizona in its current position. He's appeared in four games this year, three of which the Cardinals won, completing 46 of 93 passes for 614 yards and three touchdowns.

While he doesn't possess a strong completion percentage, his total QBR this year is higher than Palmer's, per ESPN Stats & Info, which is encouraging:

ESPN's Cris Carter thinks Stanton will be a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals, via NFL on ESPN:

The problem for the 30-year-old is that he's going against the best defense in the league, according to Football Outsiders. The Lions are allowing opposing QBs to throw 212.1 yards a game (third) and 6.6 yards an attempt (sixth). The longest pass play against the Detroit defense went for 46 yards.

With a healthy Palmer, the Cardinals would be favorites in this game.

Relying on a backup quarterback to get past this defense is too big an ask.

Prediction: Detroit 20, Arizona 14

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

It could be argued that the Indianapolis Colts have failed their three biggest tests of the season—Week 1 against the Denver Broncos, Week 2 against the Philadelphia Eagles and Week 8 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In those three games, Peyton Manning, Nick Foles and Ben Roethlisberger completed a combined 83 of 122 passes for 1,122 yards, 10 touchdowns and an interception.

This is all to say that the Colts have had trouble when facing good teams with top quarterbacks/passing attacks, which isn't a good sign with the New England Patriots coming to town. In his last five games, Tom Brady has gone for 1,601 yards, 18 touchdowns and an interception.

USA TODAY Sports

Much like the Colts' matchup with the Broncos, this game is a nice window into the NFL's aging present and promising future at quarterback. Most will focus on Brady vs. Andrew Luck, and with good reason. And unlike Manning vs. Brady, this storyline hasn't been played to death.

"He's a great player, in his third year, and he's had a lot of success," Brady said of Luck, per Andy Hart of PFWOnline.com. "Their offense is doing a great job this year. They score a lot of points, especially at home, and he’s kind of the ring leader. He does a lot of things I wish I could do. He’s big, fast, shrugs off blockers. He makes a lot of extended plays. He’s a great passer."

In the past, Luck has had some problems against the Patriots. In two games, including last year's 43-22 loss in the AFC divisional round, he's completed 47 of 91 passes for 665 yards, four TDs and seven interceptions.

The 25-year-old is in the midst of a career year, but history has proved that counting out Brady and the Patriots is far more risky than counting out Luck and the Colts.

Prediction: New England 31, Indianapolis 24

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks

It's clear that the Seattle Seahawks will target early and often a Kansas City defense that's giving up 115.6 yards a game on the ground. Marshawn Lynch's 140-yard, four-touchdown performance against the New York Giants last week and Russell Wilson's 107 yards are evidence of how effective the Seahawks ground game can be.

The question is whether Wilson, who's leading a passing offense failing to crack 200 yards a game, can find success against a defense that's sacked the quarterback 28 times. According to Football Outsiders, Seattle ranks 22nd in pass protection.

ESPN.com's Terry Blount believes the Chiefs would be wise to limit Wilson's effectiveness running the football:

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Wilson has been under duress more than any other NFL quarterback. He really misses starting tight end Zach Miller (out after ankle surgery), and the passing game is in transition since the Percy Harvin trade. Wilson, however, has been off target a lot in the past two games, consistently missing throws he normally makes. He has a sore left shoulder that no one talks about. Even though it’s not his throwing shoulder, it could be affecting is accuracy. If I'm the Chiefs, I would load the box, have one player spy Wilson for runs and force him to beat them throwing.

"

Playing away from home has been an issue for the Seahawks in the past, and they've lost to the San Diego Chargers and the St. Louis Rams on the road this year. You can bet Arrowhead Stadium will have an electric atmosphere:

This is basically a pick 'em game, with neither team owning a discernible advantage over the other.

As long as Seattle can get the running game back to a level close to where it was in Week 10, the Seahawks will pull out a close win. Their defense has the chance to make a real statement here too.

Prediction: Seattle 17, Kansas City 14