
Fantasy Football 2014: 5 Week 11 Sleepers to Start in a Pinch
Fantasy football 2014’s “byemageddon” period finally passed, leaving just six teams left scheduled to take a break. Baltimore, Dallas, Jacksonville and the New York Jets enjoy a vacation in Week 11, while Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray and Tony Romo owners try to cope. Find out how sleepers like Jordan Matthews, C.J. Anderson and Robert Griffin III can rescue your lineup this week.
Carson Palmer, Ronnie Hillman and Allen Robinson owners will also find this list useful as they deal with injuries to these starters.
A sleeper in this context is any player available in approximately 50 percent or more of ESPN fantasy leagues with a favorable matchup per ESPN’s fantasy-points-against statistic.
Defense/Special Teams: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
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Minnesota exits its bye week averaging 8.1 points per game, seventh-best in the league. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranks it 12th in overall defense and 12th against the run.
That means that if the Vikings shut down Matt Forte, the game rests on Jay Cutler’s stooped shoulders.
Even Marc Trestman doesn’t like the sound of that. He said, according to Michael C. Wright of ESPN Chicago, “[Cutler] didn’t play well enough yesterday, and we didn’t play well enough," after a 55-14 beat-down from the Green Bay Packers.
Chicago is the 25th-friendliest offense in D/ST points against, giving up 8.4 PPG. That average jumps to 11.6 PPG over the past five contests, mirroring the Bears decreasing confidence on offense.
The Bears are tied for fifth-most turnovers in the NFL with 18, according to Pro-Football-Reference. The Vikings are available in 84.7 percent of ESPN leagues.
Oh, and don’t forget about Cordarrelle Patterson, who’s a threat to return every kick/punt he gets his hands on for six.
Pick up Minnesota for a match made in streaming heaven.
Honorable mention
- San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders
- Washington Redskins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Dallas Cowboys (featured), finished tied for seventh place with 11 points
- Pittsburgh Steelers, tied for 14th with six
- Green Bay Packers, tied for third with 17
There hasn’t been a single week this season when you couldn’t pick up a defense off the street and finish in the top 10. Streaming works, and carrying more than one D/ST on your roster is crazy.
Tight End: Jared Cook, St. Louis Rams vs. Denver Broncos
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Picking up Cook this week feels like a classic case of chasing last week’s stats. Cook posted 14 against Arizona, his season-best performance by far—his previous high was seven, twice.
But the reason Cook is owned in only 57.2 percent of ESPN leagues is the streaky play frustrating his owners all season. He totaled 15 combined fantasy points in the five games leading up to Week 10.
Even his 14-point performance is suspect, since 11 of it came on one play.
But, Cook makes the perfect tight end sleeper start this week because the Broncos can’t stop opposing tight ends on defense. Denver ranks 17th in TE PA, averaging 9.8 PPG. That average spikes to 14.0 if you exclude the Seattle (1), Arizona (1) and San Francisco (2) games, three offenses that don’t use the tight end effectively.
Cook could damage your faith in him, like he did to owners in Week 7, scoring just two points against the 29th-ranked Seahawks.
But there are few alternatives if you’re a Jason Witten owner dealing with the bye, or a Delanie Walker owner riding out his concussion recovery.
Honorable mention
- Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
- Mychal Rivera (featured), fourth with 12
- Charles Clay, tied for 12th with four
- Heath Miller, tied for 19th with two
Rivera redeemed the 35.2 percent of ESPN participants who started him with an 18-yard touchdown in the last minute of a blowout.
Wide Receiver: Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers
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Matthews exploded onto the fantasy scene Monday night with a 25-point thrashing of the hapless Panthers secondary.
Although this might be the high point of his rookie season, there’s no reason to think it’s a complete anomaly for the second-rounder out of Vanderbilt—go Commodores!
Mark Sanchez and Matthews ran with the second-team offense all offseason as both acclimated to their new team. There’s no doubt the fruit of those reps were on display Monday night, as Matthews told Bo Wulf of PhiladelphiaEagles.com:
"Of course we had something going on in camp. We kind of had to. We were both on the second team at the time. So, I took the majority of the reps with him. After practice, I made sure I got extra reps with him. I knew that if I wanted to break into the lineup, I had to look good with the second-team first. That was definitely a point of emphasis for me back then. We continued to have a great relationship. I started building one with Nick [Foles], but now it's Mark's opportunity, so I have to go out and make plays for him.
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Green Bay boasts the third-best pass-coverage grade—according to PFF—but the Packers are vulnerable to wide receivers in terms of fantasy, ranking 20th with 22.1 PPG against.
The weather forecast at Lambeau Field this Sunday is predictably lousy, according to NFLWeather.com. This could stunt the Eagles passing game, but at just 24.1 percent ownership, Matthews is worth the speculative add to find out.
Matthews makes a good spot start for Dez Bryant and Steve Smith owners suffering through the bye, as well as Allen Robinson owners suddenly looking for a replacement after he was declared out for the season.
Honorable mention
- Greg Jennings, Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
- Wes Welker, Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams
- Davante Adams (featured), tied for 66th with one
- Martavis Bryant, fourth with 20
- Justin Hunter, tied for 66th with one
Bryant continued to outshine his sleeper opponents with the help of an 80-yard, garbage-touchdown bomb.
Running Back: C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams
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Anderson is the latest runner atop Denver’s backfield carousel, posting a third-best 22 points in Week 10 against the listless Raiders.
He was thrust into the spotlight because Ronnie Hillman suffered a foot sprain early in the contest. Although Hillman returned to the game, he’s expected to miss at least two weeks, according to Mike Klis of The Denver Post.
John Fox described Hillman as “day to day,” according to Andrew Mason of DenverBroncos.com. Mason also quoted Fox regarding the Broncos running-back depth and who will start against the Rams: "It speaks to the depth we have. We've been pretty fortunate. It's a tribute to them being on top of their craft. I think it's who's healthy. No. 1, first and foremost, is evaluating that week to week."
St. Louis isn’t the most palatable fantasy defense versus running backs, ranked 10th-best at just 13.3 PPG.
This clouds Anderson’s prospects, along with Montee Ball’s recovery from a Week 5 groin strain. Ball was listed as Denver’s RB1 even during the weeks he missed, according to Mason.
But Anderson’s upside is too good to avoid this week, even though it comes with considerable risk. At 3.5 percent ownership, he should be available in your league.
Honorable mention
- Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders
- Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants
- Bobby Rainey (featured), tied for 32nd with five
- DeAngelo Williams, tied for 42nd with two
- Terrance West, tied for seventh with 15
Quarterback: Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Week 11 kicks off Griffin’s effort to earn Jay Gruden and the Redskins’ trust as they decide whether to extend him the fifth-year extension on his rookie contract after the season.
Gruden is cautiously optimistic, according to Tarik El-Bashir of CSNWashington.com:
"The jury is still out on that position. But we feel good about Robert’s progress so far. We’ve just got to continue to build and see how he does from week-to-week-to-week and hopefully we can see that here at the end of the season. That’s what we have to see and that’s what we have to find out.
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Griffin is confident, according to John Keim of ESPN.com:
"There is no doubt…this is my team and I’m going to lead it. You have to prove yourself every day in this league. I take that mindset toward it, but when it comes to being the franchise guy ... I believe that I am. I believe this organization knows that I am and I know those guys in the locker room believe that I am.
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Griffin’s Week 2 ankle injury means Gruden barely has two-plus games of film to work with.
Tampa Bay should provide a great jump-start. The Buccaneers rank 31st in QB PA, allowing 20.0 PPG.
In fact, San Francisco in Week 12 marks the last tough matchup in QB PA left on the Redskins schedule, according to Fantasy Pros.
Griffin—available in 67.9 percent of ESPN leagues—not only makes a good sleeper starter this week but for the rest of the 2014 season as well.
Tony Romo and Joe Flacco owners should jump on him as a bye-week replacement, while Carson Palmer owners can start Griffin week in, week out with confidence, as long as he stays healthy.
Honorable mention
- Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
- Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins
- Mark Sanchez (featured), tied for third with 21
- Carson Palmer, tied for 23rd with seven
- Derek Carr, tied for 16th with 11
The Sanchize is back! All apologies to Fireman Ed.
Week 11 is the last of the larger bye weeks, so now it’s all about handcuffing your top starters as we roll into the playoffs.
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