Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 11: Making the Call on Fantasy Football Fringe Starters

Though most fantasy football leagues only have two to three weeks left until the playoffs, the revised NFL bye distribution has wreaked havoc on even the best-laid plans.  With the NFL saving a pair of six-team byes for the last two weeks, many fantasy teams have been forced to play shorthanded at a critical juncture of their season.

This week is more palatable, with only four teams on a bye.  Two of them, the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets, are practically fantasy sinkholes, although DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant owners will be devastated to miss the Dallas Cowboys' offensive cornerstones.  The Baltimore Ravens are the other team on a bye, which does take away some reliable No. 2 and flex options like Torrey Smith and Justin Forsett. 

Overall, though, there is a much larger pool of fantasy-relevant players available this Sunday, which will make lineup decisions much tougher.  To help with potential lineup quandaries, let's make the "start' em or sit 'em" call on two of the most divisive players at each position, highlighting some of the highest profile decisions.

Position	Start	Sit
Quarterback	Colin Kaepernick	Drew Brees
Running Back	C.J. Anderson	Alfred Morris
Wide Receiver	Mike Evans	Brandon LaFell
Tight End	Travis Kelce	Martellus Bennett
Defense/Special Teams	Lions D/ST	Chargers D/ST
Kicker	Graham Gano	Chandler Catanzaro

Start 'Em

C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Though the Denver Broncos are known for their relentless aerial attack, any running back in the Peyton Manning-led offense has fantasy value due to sheer volume.  After Ronnie Hillman owners enjoyed the backup's month-long streak in place of the injured Montee Ball, it appears that C.J. Anderson is next in line to reap the statistical rewards of the Denver offense.

Hillman will be out for two to three weeks due to a sprained foot, according to ESPN's Jeff Legwold. That opens the door for the second-year pro, who had just 28 career touches before last week's 163-yard explosion on the ground and through the air.  Though Ball could finally return from a bad groin injury suffered back in Week 5, Anderson appears to represent the far more explosive option, as noted by ESPN's Cecil Lammey:

It's hard to project what any Broncos running back is going to do on the ground, given Denver's renovations along the line.  Though the three-linemen shift worked well against the Oakland Raiders, that's hardly a solid barometer of competition going forward.  

According to Football Outsiders (FO), Denver ranks 21st in adjusted line yards, meaning that the Broncos have failed to create much push along the line.  

Still, Anderson will have value as a receiver.  Denver's Week 11 opponent, the St. Louis Rams, have had issues with dual-threat backs like Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy this season.  While Anderson may not possess that kind of pedigree, there's reason to believe that Denver's bevy of screens and angle routes could help Anderson pile up points against St. Louis linebacker Alec Ogletree.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Colin E. Braley/Associated Press

The Kansas City Chiefs' precocious young tight end has received rave reviews, but deploying him in fantasy has been frustrating.  

Running a conservative offensive scheme, the Chiefs have been reliant on tight end Anthony Fasano and fullback Anthony Sherman on early downs.  According to Pro Football Reference, Kansas City has run the ball on first down 59.7 percent of the time, the fourth-highest mark in the league this season.

Subsequently, Kelce typically plays around one-third to half the snaps, depending on the game situation.  Despite that sporadic usage, however, Kelce has arguably been the league's best tight end on a per-play basis.  Among tight ends, FO ranks him fourth in DVOA, a measure of per-play success rate, while Pro Football Focus captures an even more impressive view of his efficiency:

Perhaps most importantly, Kelce is Alex Smith's go-to target in the red zone. Per PFR, Kelce is tied with Charles for the team lead with eight red-zone targets.  The second-year tight end has caught six of those targets and turned them into four scores, a remarkable scoring rate that illustrates his ability to threaten the seams against either linebackers or safeties.

Kansas City faces the Seattle Seahawks at Arrowhead this week.  The Seahawks' once-impenetrable defense has been particularly susceptible to tight ends this year, giving up the fourth-most points in ESPN standard scoring.  If Kam Chancellor and Bobby Wagner cannot return to stabilize the middle of the Seattle back seven, look for Kelce to reach the end zone for Kansas City.

Sit 'Em

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

Chris Graythen/Getty Images

It's almost heresy to suggest that Brees is a borderline QB1 option when playing in the Superdome.  But times have changed for the 35-year-old signal-caller, who has experienced some disturbing dips this season.

The most conspicuous issue has been the lack of big plays.  New Orleans has hit 29 passes of 20 or more yards, a mediocre 20th in the league, per PFR.  Some have speculated about a decline in deep-ball accuracy for Brees, though opponents are also making schematic adjustments.  

For instance, the San Francisco 49ers conceded some extra rushing room for Mark Ingram in an effort to limit the deep shots, per Sport Illustrated's Andy Benoit:

This week's opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, have done well to limit opposing passing games.  Cincy has conceded the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, per ESPN, while FO ranks the Bengals defense eighth against the pass in terms of DVOA.

Indeed, with top cornerback Leon Hall likely to return after missing last week with a concussion, the Bengals secondary should be at full strength. The most damaging news, however, is that the Bengals are atrocious against the run, ranking last in DVOA.

There should be plenty of holes for Ingram, and realistically, it makes more sense to adopt the lower-risk rushing option in the red zone if the Saints can control the line.  Ingram could thus vulture away some scoring opportunities for Brees, leaving him dangerously reliant on high yardage totals that have not come in 2014.

Brandon LaFell, WR, New England Patriots 

Mike Groll/Associated Press

After the New England Patriots offense looked like a wreck over the first month, Brandon LaFell has emerged to make himself a fantasy-relevant target.  LaFell represents New England's only true perimeter split end, which has allowed him to use his size to win body position and provide Tom Brady with a reliable target on deep digs, comebacks and even the occasional deep fade or post route.

However, LaFell may have the toughest individual matchup of any Patriot this week against the Indianapolis Colts.

Indy's top corner Vontae Davis has had a remarkable season, finally piecing together his physical tools and refining some technical flaws (particularly in regards to footwork) to fulfill his promise.  By virtually any statistical measure, Davis has been one of the league's top corners, per NFL.com's Gil Brandt: 

Though some may see Davis as a logical option to cover Rob Gronkowski, plugged-in Colts writers like Stampede Blue's Josh Wilson have refuted that idea:

Ultimately, New England should have more success attacking the seams with Gronk and running the ball against an Indy defense that ranks 22nd in rush defense DVOA.  LaFell seems unlikely to receive many targets matched up against Davis, which should depress his value and make him unplayable except in deep leagues.