NFL Week 11 Picks: Game-by-Game Over/Under Predictions

Bettors surely praise the creation known as NFL over/under lines on a weekly basis. 

No matter what Las Vegas tries to do, bettors have a weekly insurance policy in the form of over/under lines—so long as they know how to play said lines after careful matchup analysis.

Look at last week, when a number of difficult matchups birthed a risky betting environment. All anyone had to do was look to the Denver Broncos for help—Peyton Manning nearly cleared the over on his own as his team dropped 41 points on Oakland.

Whether a nice parlay or simply straight play, Week 11 over/under lines are here to save the day once again.

NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread (O/U)	Pick ATS	O/U Pick	Reason
Buffalo at Miami (Thurs., Nov. 13)	MIA -6 (42)	MIA	U	Kyle Orton will not have enough on a short week to overcome one of the league's best pass defenses.
Minnesota at Chicago	CHI -3.5 (47)	MIN	U	Chicago looks lost at the moment, while Minnesota had a bye to prepare.
Houston at Cleveland	CLE -3 (42)	CLE	U	Cleveland is legit and at home while Houston experiments under center. Easy.
Seattle at Kansas City	EVEN (42.5)	SEA	O	Seattle seems to be hitting its stride and will outmuscle Kansas City on the ground.
Atlanta at Carolina	CAR -2.5 (46)	CAR	O	Cam Newton can do enough on his own to move past one of the worst defenses in the league.
Cincinnati at New Orleans	NO -5.5 (50.5)	NO	O	Cincinnati is lost at the moment, and the last thing the young and injured roster needs is a trip to the Dome.
Tampa Bay at Washington	WAS -7 (45)	WAS	O	See analysis below.
Denver at St. Louis	DEN -10 (51)	DEN	O	Denver continues to breeze through the schedule, while St. Louis has seemingly lost its will to compete.
San Francisco at NY Giants	SF -4.5 (44)	SF	O	New York will have no answer for the San Francisco ground game, so long as the staff actually uses it.
Oakland at San Diego	SD -10.5 (45)	OAK	O	Derek Carr and Oakland have fight but not enough talent.
Philadelphia at Green Bay	GB -4.5 (55)	GB	O	See analysis below.
Detroit at Arizona	ARI -3 (41.5)	DET	U	A bout between two defensive contenders defaults to quarterbacks, which in this case defaults to Detroit.
New England at Indianapolis	IND -3 (57.5)	NE	U	A bet against Tom Brady and New England right now is akin to throwing money in a fire.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee (Mon., Nov. 17)	PIT -6 (47)	PIT	U	Pittsburgh has re-entered orbit but has not fallen enough to get caught napping by Tennessee.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 11.

Top Over/Under Picks of Week 11 

Tampa Bay at Washington (-7)

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

For a team that has scored more than 30 points just twice this season despite the arrival of new head coach Jay Gruden, it makes sense that some bettors may shy away from over/under lines that include Washington.

Keep in mind, though, that Washington just got starting quarterback Robert Griffin III back in its last game. The team rattled off 26 points in a loss while RG3 threw for 251 yards and a score, and back Alfred Morris took advantage of the wider running lanes and scored twice.

Tampa Bay had a similar return to form from an offensive standpoint as well just last week thanks to the re-promotion of veteran quarterback Josh McCown. While shaky overall, he did toss a pair of touchdowns in an encouraging performance (at least in regards to the over/under).

But be honest—the over on this particular line is thanks to some downright miserable defenses.

Cliff McBride/Getty Images

The Washington defense has given up 27 or more points in five of its nine games this season, and in its last game, it allowed Minnesota rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to throw for 268 yards and a score while surrendering 29 points.

Tampa Bay has been even worse, ranking 31st against the pass and allowing 27 or more points four times. Elite defensive tackle Gerald McCoy's words about his unit recently speak volumes to the state of matters in Tampa Bay.

"We're an undisciplined team, a very undisciplined team," McCoy told the media, per the Pewter Report (via Conor Orr of NFL.com). "Probably the worst I've ever been on as a unit."

In short, this one is going to have plenty of scoring for everybody. Washington has a balanced offense led by a dual-threat weapon in RG3 that Tampa Bay certainly cannot stop. On the flip side, Washington will have issues with a deep backfield and massive receivers on the outside such as Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson in the red zone. 

Prediction: Washington 30, Buccaneers 28

Philadelphia at Green Bay (-4.5)

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Something must be a little wonky with the machine that churns out over/under marks. That, or somebody got his games confused this week.

Green Bay quite literally just scored 55 points a week ago thanks to 315 passing yards and six touchdowns from Aaron Rodgers, who did not even play the entire game.

Now, nobody would suggest the Packers will reach that mark again. But it was the team's fourth game with 38 or more points this season. Really, none of this even mentions the fact the Packers have to deal with Chip Kelly's explosive offense, too.

Perhaps oddsmakers are scared of the prospects of Mark Sanchez under center for the Eagles. On second thought, the Eagles just posted a season-high 45 points in part because Sanchez found his way to 332 yards and two touchdowns.

Rodgers vs. Sanchez is not exactly the quarterback duel most would pay good money for, but both can clearly lead their offenses to some gaudy point totals.

It is not as if the defenses are that great, either. The Packers do well against the pass but also happen to rank 30th against the rush, meaning LeSean McCoy (641 yards, two touchdowns) will be free to run wild.

On the other end of the spectrum is a Philadelphia defense that ranks 22nd against the pass. With names such as Washington's Kirk Cousins able to pile up 427 yards and three scores while leading his team to 34 points against the unit, it is safe to say Rodgers should encounter few issues so long as his line holds strong at home.

Prediction: Packers 40, Eagles 28

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Dallas, New York Jets, Jacksonville and Baltimore on bye.