NBA Rookies Who Are Resetting Our Expectations This Season
We entered the 2014-15 season with some expectations for each NBA rookie. There were a few we thought would step in right away and make an impact. There were others we pegged as longer-term projects who weren't quite ready.
Quite frankly, we might have to reset our expectations concerning the entire 2014 draft class. For the most part, the lottery picks have all underperformed or have been stuck on the bench.
Still, there have been a couple of standout rookies who've forced us to raise the bar early on. And, of course, we've also seen a few who've forced us to lower it two weeks into the year.
In a Good Way: Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets
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Just like everyone predicted, Bojan Bogdanovic is your second-leading rookie scorer two weeks into the year after spending the last few seasons stashed abroad following the 2011 NBA draft.
His 10-point-per-game average is nothing to drool over, but he's been a solid immediate contributor in his first NBA season.
Bogdanovic certainly looks like he belongs out there. He has the offensive versatility to create or knock down shots in a variety of different ways.
He went for 22 points the other day against the Orlando Magic on a couple of made threes, a floater, a post move, a fadeaway jumper, some finishes and a bucket on a fast break.
There's nothing particularly flashy about Bogdanovic's game—he's just a threat to make something happen from every spot or angle on the floor.
I'm not sure how much upside is in his tank, but it seems fairly obvious the Nets found themselves a solid rotational forward.
In a Not-so-Good Way: Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks
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After flashing refined skills and an NBA-ready body in college, we expected Jabari Parker to look a little more comfortable as a rookie.
But he's shooting just 41.9 percent, and though he currently leads all rookies in scoring at 11.6 per game, it isn't exactly saying much.
To his credit, he's had to adjust to a much smaller role (32.81 percent usage rate at Duke, 22.1 percent in Milwaukee) but clearly isn't getting as many of the same easy scoring chances that came to him last year.
Parker's solid 17.7 percent rebounding percentage from college, per RealGM.com, hasn't quite translated so well either, given his 6.1-per-game average in 30 minutes a night (11.8 percent rebounding percentage).
He'll definitely have some adjustments to make moving forward, like getting familiar with a deeper three-point arc (he's 3-of-12 so far) and much longer defenders inside and out.
None of this is to say that Parker is by any means a bust; rather, it's just going to take longer than we thought for him to hit his NBA stride.
In a Not-so-Good Way: Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
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An ankle sprain that's expected to keep him out 2-3 weeks won't help, but even before the injury it was pretty obvious that Marcus Smart has a way to go offensively.
And it's been the same theme since college: Smart hasn't developed a mid-range game. It's either a hard drive to the rack, which isn't always available, or a long three-ball, which usually is. And unfortunately, it's the three-ball he's been forced to settle for despite his glaring weakness as a shooter.
Through five games, Smart took 25 three-pointers to just 11 twos. That should help explain his 30.6 percent field-goal mark.
It was no different in preseason, when 44 of his 60 shot attempts came from behind the arc.
On the bright side, Smart has presented himself as an immediate impact defender. He has the ability to put some major pressure on the ball.
But in terms of his offensive development, you might want to push back his NBA-ready timetable. It could be a few years before he's capable of running an offense in a full-time role.
In a Good Way: Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets
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Though still a project, Jusuf Nurkic might actually be of more use early on than we'd thought.
He hasn't received consistent minutes but has been productive in the one's he's received, just like he was with Cedevita last year, when he led the Adriatic League in Player Efficiency Rating, via RealGM.com.
Nurkic is sporting a monster 23.36 percent rebounding percentage so far, good for second in the NBA. In comparison, Rodney Hood's 13.4 percent rebounding percentage ranks No. 2 among rookies. Nurkic is averaging 15.1 boards per 36 minutes through his first five games of action.
At 280 pounds, Nurkic takes up a ton of space inside and blends soft hands with mobile feet.
Offensively, he recently picked up 10 points in 17 minutes against the Cavaliers. He had a couple of catch-and-finishes, a jump hook, a tip-in and a pick-and-roll bucket in the paint.
Nurkic will have trouble cracking the rotation in 2014-15 behind Timofey Mozgov and JaVale McGee, but if the Nuggets keep losing games, coach Brian Shaw might be inclined to increase the rookie's role in the second half of the year.
In a Not-so-Good Way: Adreian Payne, Atlanta Hawks & Gary Harris, Denver Nuggets
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The boys from Michigan State—the guys whom many had pegged as two immediate NBA contributors—have both been glued to the bench to start their rookie seasons.
At 23 years old with a good-looking outside jumper, Payne presented himself as a low-risk big man who can step in right away and stretch the floor up front.
But with Paul Millsap, Al Horford and Mike Scott playing well, there really hasn't been much of a need for Payne, who's yet to log a minute through six games.
Neither has Harris, despite having flashed one of the more complete two-way skill sets in the 2014 class.
He was pretty inefficient during preseason, where he shot 14-of-41 with eight turnovers and six assists.
Payne and Harris each possess strengths that should eventually hold plenty of NBA value—just not in 2014-15. Set your NBA-ready timetables back a year or two.
In a Good Way, Until He Was Injured: Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic
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Updated November 17 by Zach Buckley
Aaron Gordon fractured the fifth metatarsal in his left foot during the Orlando Magic's 98-93 loss to the Washington Wizards on Saturday night. Orlando general manager Rob Hennigan confirmed the injury and announced that Gordon will be sidelined indefinitely in a team release.
Gordon has averaged 5.8 points on 58.1 percent shooting and 3.0 rebounds on the season.
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With a raw offensive game and unrefined skills, it really didn't seem like Aaron Gordon would serve much of a purpose as a rookie for a team that lacked shooters and scorers.
And then he dropped 17 points in a tight win over the Timberwolves, with a few of those points coming in crunch time. Catch-and-finishes, transition opportunities, offensive rebounds, opportunistic drives—these are the types of scoring chances he should be able to capitalize on without possessing many ball skills.
"His energy—it was contagious tonight," coach Jacques Vaughn said of Gordon following his outburst against Minnesota, via Fox Sports' Ken Hornack. "His defense, his ability to make the right play, to kind of stay in the moment whether it was on a breakaway or at the end of the shot clock. ... He did a great job of just being ready."
Defensively, he's already flashed his valuable versatility, thanks to his foot speed of a wing and size of a power forward. Grantland's Zach Lowe discussed the different ways he allows the Magic to guard opposing frontcourts.
Per RealGM.com, Gordon currently has the highest Player Efficiency Rating of any rookie in the class who's played at least four games.
I wouldn't bet on many more offensive explosions from Gordon, but as the season progresses his basketball IQ and activity level could lead to a bigger rookie role and impact than expected.
Stats up to date through games on Nov. 10.
