Illinois Basketball: Complete Roster, Season Preview for 2014-15 Illini

John Groce's Illinois Fighting Illini squad had a busy offseason after falling just short of making the 2014 NCAA Tournament. A suspension and eventual transfer from Darius Paul, as well as a torn ACL from Tracy Abrams, hurt the depth on this roster.

Still, expectations are high in Champaign-Urbana following a late surge in the 2013-14 campaign that saw the emergence of then-freshmen Kendrick Nunn and Malcolm Hill. Illinois' combination of returning talent and key additions should see the team finish in the Big Ten's top half, while getting back into the field of 68.

The orange and blue tipped off their season at the State Farm Center last Friday with a 91-62 win in an exhibition matchup against Quincy. This coming Friday, Illinois faces off with Georgia Southern, while quickly getting back on the court on Sunday as it hosts Coppin State.

Key Newcomers

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Ahmad Starks (Point Guard)

Starks played three seasons at Oregon State before transferring closer to home. The 5'9" Starks, who hails from Chicago's Whitney Young, will enter the starting lineup after the season-ending injury to Abrams. While Abrams is the better defender of the two, Starks is a more capable shooter.

Aaron Cosby (Shooting Guard)

Cosby played two years in the Big East at Seton Hall, where he also was a big-time shooter. Cosby and Nunn will both see minutes at the off-guard spot, though Cosby may be asked to handle the ball as well. He and Starks will be a huge lift for a squad who struggled to shoot the rock a season ago.

Leron Black (Power Forward)

After a Quentin Snider decommitment and a Cliff Alexander snub on signing day, Black was true to his word in playing for Groce & Co. Black is the first Illinois player to come from Memphis, Tennessee, since all-time sharpshooter Corey Bradford. Black is an athletic forward who can run the floor and do the necessary dirty work for this bunch.

Key Returners

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Rayvonte Rice (Small Forward)

As a redshirt junior, Rice led Illinois in scoring (15.9), rebounding (6.0) and minutes per game (32.7). Rice, who is a local kid from Champaign, transferred back home after spending two seasons at Drake. Rice is a bulldog attacking the basket who will frequent the foul line. While Rice should be the team's primary offensive option once again, he won't need to shoulder as much of their O as he did in 2013-14. 

Nnanna Egwu (Center)

As a junior, Egwu averaged 6.9 points, 6.0 rebounds and 2.0 blocked shots in 29.7 minutes of action. This will be Egwu's third season as a starting big man, after backing up now-Portland Trailblazer Meyers Leonard.

Egwu has a high motor who always give 100 percent effort, though he is prone to picking up cheap fouls and setting illegal screens. With a thin Illini frontcourt behind him, Egwu will need to stay out of foul trouble in his final collegiate season.

Kendrick Nunn (Shooting Guard)

Nunn was selected to the Big Ten's All-Freshman Team last season, after averaging 6.2 points while shooting 39 percent from three-point range. Nunn entered the starting lineup on February 9 at Penn State and didn't relinquish that role. Illinois played their best basketball once Nunn replaced Joseph Bertrand as a starter and behind Rice, was Illinois' second best player from that point on.

Malcolm Hill (Power Forward)

Hill, a fellow freshman in 2013-14, also entered the starting five in Illinois' victory at Happy Valley in February, replacing Jon Ekey. Hill's natural position is small forward, but he has added the necessary muscle to play in the paint against rugged Big Ten big men.

Hill averaged 4.4 points last season, but he should see a sharp increase this season. Hill led all scorers with 20 points during Illinois' exhibition victory. 

Roster and Projected Rotation

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Illinois' 15-man roster contains 12 scholarship athletes (including an injured Tracy Abrams), as well as three walk-ons. Here is a link to said roster, and below I will analyze the team's starting lineup and key members of the rotation.

Starting Lineup

PG: Ahmad Starks
SG: Kendrick Nunn
SF: Rayvonte Rice
PF: Malcolm Hill
C: Nnanna Egwu

Key Bench Players

Aaron Cosby, Leron Black, Maverick Morgan

Illinois' strength is its guard play. While either Nunn or Cosby could start at shooting guard, I see Nunn recovering from injury and becoming the team's second-best player. Starks, Nunn, Cosby and Hill are all good outside shooters, while Rice and Egwu can even step out behind the arc on occasion to knock down a triple.

Illinois' weakness is its frontcourt depth. Both Hill and Black can be categorized as undersized power forwards, while Morgan only averaged 1.5 points and 1.2 rebounds in 7.1 minutes as a true freshman.

While Illinois will be improved on the offensive end, the team will need to maintain the strong defensive culture that has been instilled since Groce's arrival in 2012.

Biggest X-Factors

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Three-Point Shooting

A season ago, the Illini shot a miserable 31.7 percent from three-point land. The additions of Starks and Cosby and presumed leaps from sophomores Nunn and Hill should make Illinois one of the league's top long-range bunches. 

Much like the 2012-13 Fighting Illini though, they must live by the three and die by the three. When the outside shots aren't falling, Illinois will need to recognize the need to attack the basket instead of settling for long-range jumpers.

 

Depth

Had Abrams and Paul suited up for the Fighting Illini this season, they'd have a solid nine-man rotation. In their absences, sophomores Morgan and Jaylon Tate will see more action. Both played spot minutes a season ago as freshmen. Austin Colbert and Michael Finke round out the team's scholarship players.

Still, Illinois has a top backcourt. Black and Hill will also be a solid punch at both forward positions. Though Bruce Weber was more inclined to play small-ball lineups than Groce, there may be opportunities to see four-guard looks that would be quick and deadly from deep.

 

Experience

Last season, Illinois only had three returning players (Egwu, Abrams and Bertrand). This season, Illinois returns four starters (would have been five had Abrams stayed healthy), adds two upperclassmen transfers and brings back a group of sophomores that saw immediate action as freshmen. 

While this team boasts experienced college basketball players, only Egwu has seen action in the NCAA Tournament. As a sophomore, Egwu and the Fighting Illini beat Colorado before falling short against Miami. The 2014-15 season would be considered a disappointment should Illinois miss March Madness for the second consecutive season.

Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios

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Best-Case Scenario

The Big Ten Conference is Wisconsin's to win in 2014-15. However, after the Badgers, the rest of the league is wide open. In the best-case scenario, Illinois edges out traditional powers Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State, as well as up-and-comer Nebraska and finishes in second in the league standings behind only Wisconsin.

From there, Illinois rides a pro-Illini crowd in Chicago and wins the Big Ten Tournament. They enter the NCAA Tournament with a No. 2 seed after a late-season run. Illinois gets over the hump on the opening weekend and continues its streak in the regional, advancing to its first Final Four since 2005.

Worst-Case Scenario

After Wisconsin, there are plenty of good but not great teams in the Big Ten, which surely means there will be plenty of parity in the league. In the worst-case scenario, the Illini prove they are unable to win on the road. They defeat inferior league opponents at home but struggle against the middle- and upper-tier squads.

Illinois finishes 11th in the Big Ten, ahead of only Rutgers, Penn State and Purdue and behind in-state foe and rival Northwestern. Illinois must play on the Wednesday of the Big Ten Tournament and bows out early. Despite finishing the regular season with a record above .500, Illinois is not selected for the NIT and declines an invitation to the CBI.

2014-15 Prediction

Robin Scholz/Associated Press

As I predicted in late August, I see Illinois finishing in third place in the Big Ten this season. I predict a 12-6 conference record, only behind the Wisconsin Badgers and Nebraska Cornhuskers. 

Prior to conference play, I foresee Illinois picking up quality wins over Memphis, Miami and Missouri, while only losing to Villanova and Oregon. A Big Ten Tournament finals appearance will help land Illinois a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

John Groce is then awarded Big Ten Coach of the Year, while both Rayvonte Rice and Kendrick Nunn are All-Big Ten selections. Nnanna Egwu is recognized as the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, while Leron Black is an All-Freshman Team selection. 

In the NCAA Tournament, Illinois avoids the dreaded No. 5 vs. No. 12 upset before pulling off a mini-upset over the fourth seed. Illinois then takes a No. 1 seed to the wire, only to lose in heartbreaking fashion. All in all, Illinois finishes a successful season with a 27-10 record and its first Sweet Sixteen appearance since 2006.