Indiana Hoosiers: 5 Keys to an Unpredictable Big Ten Season

The regular season is fast approaching, but this Indiana Hoosiers basketball team looks anything but ready. In addition to the traditional challenges of having to quickly integrate new players for the new season, IU head coach Tom Crean is also being asked to deal with an avalanche of off-court issues.

According to ESPN’s Jeff Goodman, two of last year’s regulars, Troy Williams and Stanford Robinson, have been suspended for failed drug tests. The pair will each miss four games as a result, but they won’t be alone on the sidelines.

Joining them for the duration will be freshman Emmit Holt, who was involved in the recent car accident that injured Devin Davis. Davis, for that matter, will be out at least as long as it takes him to recover from his injuries.

In short, Indiana is starting to look more like a disaster movie than a one of the nation’s most storied blue-blood programs.

Sure, Crean is taking immediate measures to right the ship, but at this point in the preseason there are more questions than answers. The Kelvin Sampson era may have ended years ago, but Indiana’s basketball program is still desperately searching for the long-term success and stability that characterized Bob Knight’s historic tenure.

In the face of the present disarray, the Hoosier faithful are understandably taking stock of their team’s assets and trying to develop their season expectations accordingly. Here are five of the biggest questions facing Indiana as it looks to overcome adversity and improve upon last year’s disappointing 17-15 overall record.

1. Will Yogi Ferrell Step Up?

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Kevin “Yogi” Ferrell led the Hoosiers in minutes per game (33.8) and points per game (17.3) last season. He has been the unquestioned field marshal on the Assembly Hall hardwood ever since the departure of point guard and three-point assassin Jordan Hulls. With two battle-tested Big Ten seasons already under his belt, we can expect to see Ferrell in peak form and at the height of his basketball IQ.

But will it be enough to lift the Hoosiers? 

Expect Ferrell to lead the team in minutes and scoring again this season. Expect him to also double down by making considerable contributions in the form of intangibles like leadership and keeping a cool head in tight games.

Ferrell has shown he is capable of putting the team on his back by making critical three-pointers. His timely triples can liven up the home crowd and drop momentum-killing daggers into the hearts of IU’s hopeful opponents just as they start to build momentum.

ESPN ranked Ferrell as the No. 17 player in country. If he has any aspirations of turning that number into its equivalent pick (or higher) in the NBA draft, then his third season with Indiana will have to be his best yet.

Ferrell is a standout player and, much like last year, he will be Crean’s go-to man for any last-second shots. That is, if Crean can get him the ball. Hoosier fans can rest easy on their point guard’s shooting ability, but the same cannot necessarily be said for the coach’s tactical skills.

2. Can Tom Crean Tell His Xs from His Os?

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I want you to imagine something. Visualize, if you will, that the Hoosiers are down by two points but have possession of the ball with 20 seconds left in the game. Crean calls a timeout.

There’s still plenty of time to score and win the contest—all it will take to get that crucial bucket is for Crean to select one of the many plays that the team has drawn up and practiced day in, day out for months. The coach gestures enthusiastically at his marker board until the ref calls everyone back onto the floor.

The ball is inbounded to an IU player, but he gets trapped and picks up his dribble. No one comes to help him, so he hurls it across the court. By pure luck, another Indiana player manages to catch it. That player drives to the hoop, only to get triple-teamed. He then kicks the ball out in desperation to a teammate who isn’t named Yogi Ferrell. With the shot clock nearing zero, Not Yogi Ferrell awkwardly heaves up a desperate three that misses by a mile as the clock finally expires.

Wait, what just happened? 

If you've watched IU at any point over Crean’s tenure, you wouldn’t have had to imagine the scene I just described, because you would have already seen it dozens of times in real life.

While Crean may have had moments of recruiting and motivational brilliance during his career in crimson and cream, he has rarely (if ever) drawn up a game-winning play at either end of the court. Crean's timeout huddles are almost always followed up by broken offensive plays or dubious defensive tactics and, ultimately, another tally in Indiana’s loss column.

How a disciple of Tom Izzo can struggle so consistently at setting up plays is beyond me, but I for one am not holding out any hope that he’s miraculously transformed into a tactically elite coach during the offseason. If IU hopes to win games, it will have to put them to bed before the final minute. But in order to do that, they’ll need to step up their offensive production.

3. Where Will the Scoring Come From?

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The second- and third-leading scorers from last year’s squad are long gone.

Noah Vonleh declared for the NBA draft and took his 11.3 points and 9.0 rebounds per game with him. His rebounding contributions were invaluable for keeping Indiana in games when shots weren’t falling for their young scorers. Vonleh’s length and ability to use his strength near the rim gave IU an extra dimension in attack that was consistently dependable, regardless of whether or not his teammates were having an off night.

Will Sheehey’s 11.4 points per game will also be sorely missed. Though his decision-making and penchant for talking back to officials were unfortunate detractors of the team’s success, his energy and offensive production had the potential to be game-changing. All it took was one athletic dunk by Sheehey to bring Assembly Hall to its feet and get IU back in the game.

After Sheehey and Vonleh, there was a considerable drop-off in point production. The next two highest scorers were Williams (7.3) and Robinson (6.4)—and as previously noted, they won’t be suiting up for some time. Junior Hanner Mosquera-Perea featured in the starting lineup for Indiana’s exhibition game against Northwood, but his disappointing 2013-14 season (7.7 MPG, 2.8 PPG) leaves a lot to be desired.

Just where will all the scoring responsibility come from this year, if not from veterans? Well, for better or for worse, much of it will rest on the shoulders of freshman James Blackmon Jr.

4. Will James Blackmon Jr. Live Up to the Hype?

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The 6’2”, 175-pound Indiana Hoosier committed to IU early in his high school career, but had a rethink later on. Blackmon eventually decided to don the crimson and cream, but not before considering offers from perennial powerhouses like Kentucky, Kansas and Michigan.

Given his talent, there’s no question he will start and feature heavily in Indiana’s lineup for the entirety of the season. Additionally, the shooting guard should also have license to score at will in order to share some of Ferrell’s burden on the offensive end.

Luckily for Hoosier fans, scoring comes naturally to Blackmon. He’s confident and has the skills to drop shots from anywhere with regularity.

The 2014 McDonald’s All-American has lived up to his billing so far, but will he be able to adapt to a league with an unparalleled dedication to staunch defending? Only time will tell, but more than one recruit has found it’s no easy task to consistently make buckets when faced with the suffocating defenses of Big Ten teams.

Speaking of the Big Ten…

5. Forget the Early Stuff: Can IU Win Any Conference Games?

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Let’s take a look at the schedule. Forget about the nonconference games against No. 22 SMU, Pittsburgh, No. 8 Louisville, Butler and Georgetown that will all offer unique challenges for a young Indiana team. We’ll just focus on the Big Ten here.

Outside of their home games against Penn State, Rutgers and Purdue, the Hoosiers will have a considerable uphill battle in every conference game this season (home and away). That may sound pessimistic, but let’s look at last season.

In 2013-14, Indiana notably lost at home to Northwestern (a team that has never made the NCAA tournament and finished 6-12 in the conference last season), Penn State (6-12 in the conference), Illinois (7-11) and Iowa (9-9). Years ago, these home losses simply would not have been unacceptable.

Assembly Hall is supposed to be a fortress in a conference that has long been known for the tenacity with which home teams defend their hallowed grounds. Visiting teams used to have to fight tooth and nail for every point, while Indiana would hit them hard with virtually every possession—riding the deafening waves of their home crowd on seemingly endless rallies.

Though the 2014-15 Hoosiers don’t have anywhere near the raw talent of some of the program’s previous nationally ranked teams, they are not entirely hopeless. If Ferrell and Blackmon play to their potential, Mosquera-Perea makes full use of his natural athletic prowess and a few role players develop into solid starters (like Victor Oladipo did his sophomore season), then IU could finish solidly in the middle of a highly competitive Big Ten conference.

I’m not expecting miracles, but there’s every reason to believe the team will try to move on from its preseason turmoil and give the papers some wins to write about in Bloomington.