Final Series Golf 2014: Updated Predictions and Race to Dubai Rankings
Following the WGC-HSBC Masters, the Final Series is down to its final two events. The Series is a four-tournament points-based competition that essentially represents the European Tour's version of the FedEx Cup, and with two events remaining, the list of potential winners is quickly dwindling.
Following Bubba Watson's victory at Sheshan International Golf Club, there has been little movement at the top of the Race to Dubai standings. Points leader Rory McIlroy maintains a sizable cushion despite being idle the past two events. Now returning to the field, McIlroy figures to be the heavy favorite to take home the biggest slice of the $5 million Final Series pie.
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However, there is still time for golfers to close the gap at the Turkish Airlines Open and the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai. Examining the updated points rankings, let's take a look at some of the top contenders and predict the potential order of finish.
| 1 | Rory McIlroy | 5,400,700 |
| 2 | Jamie Donaldson | 2,457,164 |
| 3 | Sergio Garcia | 2,363,342 |
| 4 | Marcel Siem | 2,231,423 |
| 5 | Alexander Levy | 2,047,817 |
| 6 | Henrik Stenson | 2,045,086 |
| 7 | Justin Rose | 2,007,861 |
| 8 | Thomas Bjorn | 1,943,682 |
| 9 | Graeme McDowell | 1,911,844 |
| 10 | Martin Kaymer | 1,872,383 |
Predicted Winner: Rory McIlroy
McIlroy has taken the throne as the clear-cut top player in the world, ascending to the No. 1 ranking and earning Golf Magazine's Player of the Year title. Because the Race to Dubai rankings are cumulative, McIlroy's success on the European Tour this year, which includes a win and two second-place finishes, has earned him a massive lead over the rest of the competition.
With three wins and seven top-10 finishes in his past eight starts, including a pair of major victories at the Open Championship and PGA Championship, McIlroy is the hottest golfer in the world at the moment. The 25-year-old has missed the past two events to resolve a court case with his former management company, but given his recent form, expecting a major drop-off seems foolish.
Following a third-place finish at the HSBC Champions, McDowell should move near the top of the points rankings. Though he appears unlikely to catch McIlroy, there is strong reason to believe he could finish in second. McDowell was one of the few contenders in the field who could have challenged McIlroy with a win. After holding a 56-hold lead, McDowell was projected to line up right behind his fellow countryman:
Nevertheless, McDowell rebounded well in Shanghai after failing to crack the top 30 in any of his last three PGA Tour starts. Besides this finish, he also placed 16th in last weekend's BMW Masters, suggesting that he has been more comfortable on the European Tour. With a win in either of the next two weeks, McDowell opens the door for serious championship consideration.
If there's a golfer who could rise to present a serious scare to McIlroy and McDowell, Martin Kaymer might represent the most likely candidate. Following his sixth-place finish at Shanghai, Kaymer rose from 12th to 10th in the rankings. Headed into the final round in third place, Kaymer had a golden opportunity to capture one of the rarest combination of wins in the sport:
Failing to come from behind on Sunday at Shanghai likely eliminates Kaymer's chances of realistically winning the Final Series, barring a pair of consecutive wins over the next two weeks. Still, the HSBC Champions showing was a strong rebound from his recent lackluster form, which had seen him miss the cut in three of his past six tournaments, a stretch that included just one top-10 finish.
Realistically, it is extremely difficult to see anyone overtaking McIlroy so long as he physically completes the final two tournaments. moreover, McIlroy has experienced past success at the year-end DP Championship, finishing fifth in 2012 and taking home the title last season. So long as McIlroy does not self-destruct following his brief layoff, expect the current leader to sustain his hefty lead and win his first Final Series.
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